1
|
Yang H, Fu Y, Hong X, Yu H, Wang W, Sun F, Zhou J, Zhou N. 'Trend in premature mortality from four major NCDs in Nanjing, China, 2007-2018'. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:2163. [PMID: 34823505 PMCID: PMC8614038 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-12018-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2021] [Accepted: 10/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to analyze the trends of premature mortality caused from four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), namely cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in Nanjing between 2007 and 2018 and project the ability to achieve the "Healthy China 2030" reduction target. METHODS Mortality data of four major NCDs for the period 2007-2018 were extracted from the Death Information Registration and Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Population data for Nanjing were provided by the Nanjing Bureau of Public Security. The premature mortality was calculated using the life table method. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in mortality trends. RESULTS From 2007 to 2018, the premature mortality from four major NCDs combined in Nanjing decreased from 15.5 to 9.5%, with the AAPC value at - 4.3% (95% CI [- 5.2% to - 3.4%]). Overall, it can potentially achieve the target, with a relative reduction 28.6%. The premature mortality from cancer, CVD, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes all decreased, with AAPC values at - 4.2, - 5.0%, - 5.9% and - 1.6% respectively. A relative reduction of 40.6 and 41.2% in females and in rural areas, but only 21.0 and 12.8% in males and in urban areas were projected. CONCLUSION An integrated approach should be taken focusing on the modifiable risk factors across different sectors and disciplines in Nanjing. The prevention and treatment of cancers, diabetes, male and rural areas NCDs should be enhanced.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Huafeng Yang
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Yali Fu
- Jiangsu Health Development Research Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xin Hong
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Hao Yu
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Weiwei Wang
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Fengxia Sun
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Jinyi Zhou
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Nan Zhou
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Liu L, Li Y, Song J, Chen Q, Li S, Mu H, Na J, Zhang R, Yu L, Sun W, Pan G. Current status of premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4: a population-based study in northeast China, 2004-2017. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1608. [PMID: 34470632 PMCID: PMC8411532 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11611-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and aim According to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. This remains a challenge for China. This study aimed to evaluate the current status and progress towards this target in Liaoning Province, one of the three provinces in northeast China. Methods We calculated the premature mortality rates (PMRs) per year and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) from NCD4 using mortality data between 2004 and 2017. The trend was analyzed in the whole population, as well as in subpopulations of gender (male/female) and inhabiting area (urban/rural). PMRs from NCD4 for 2030 were projected by fitting a linear regression based on the current trend, which was identified by a Joinpoint model. Findings In the whole population, only chronic respiratory diseases showed a significant decline (AAPC: − 6.5%, p < 0.05), while only cancer showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 1.3%, p < 0.05); taken together, NCD4 showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 0.6%, p < 0.05). In the subpopulations, while males showed a significant increase in NCD4 (AAPC: + 1.5%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: + 1.7%, p < 0.05), cancer (AAPC: + 1.8%, p < 0.05), and diabetes mellitus (AAPC: + 4.2%, p < 0.05), females showed a significant decline in NCD4 (AAPC: − 1.2%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: − 1.8%, p < 0.05), diabetes mellitus (AAPC: − 2.1%, p < 0.05), but showed a mild increase in cancer (AAPC: + 0.5%, p > 0.05). A comparative analysis of the projected PMRs for 2030 with the 2015 levels revealed that only chronic respiratory diseases are expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4, apart from in the urban male subpopulation. Conclusion Except for chronic respiratory diseases, NCD4 cannot be expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4 in the whole population of Liaoning Province. Under these circumstances, special attention should be paid to reducing the risks of cancer and providing preventative interventions for men.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Li Liu
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanxia Li
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Junmin Song
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Department of Gastroenterology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, 110004, People's Republic of China
| | - Qian Chen
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Research Center for Universal Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Huijuan Mu
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Na
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Rui Zhang
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Liya Yu
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Institute of Chronic Diseases, Liaoning Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang, People's Republic of China
| | - Wei Sun
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China.,Research Center for Universal Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Guowei Pan
- Institute of Preventive Medicine, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, People's Republic of China. .,Research Center for Universal Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, 110122, China.
| |
Collapse
|