ANALYTICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE DECREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE HABITABLE ZONE DUE TO A LIMITED CO2 OUTGASSING RATE

CO2 Ocean Bistability on Terrestrial Exoplanets

Cycling of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and interior of rocky planets can stabilize global climate and enable planetary surface temperatures above freezing over geologic time. However, variations in global carbon budget and unstable feedback cycles between planetary sub-systems may destabilize the climate of rocky exoplanets toward regimes unknown in the Solar System. Here, we perform clear-sky atmospheric radiative transfer and surface weathering simulations to probe the stability of climate equilibria for rocky, ocean-bearing exoplanets at instellations relevant for planetary systems in the outer regions of the circumstellar habitable zone. Our simulations suggest that planets orbiting G- and F-type stars (but not M-type stars) may display bistability between an Earth-like climate state with efficient carbon sequestration and an alternative stable climate equilibrium where CO₂ condenses at the surface and forms a blanket of either clathrate hydrate or liquid CO₂. At increasing instellation and with ineffective weathering, the latter state oscillates between cool, surface CO₂-condensing and hot, non-condensing climates. CO₂ bistable climates may emerge early in planetary history and remain stable for billions of years. The carbon dioxide-condensing climates follow an opposite trend in pCO₂ versus instellation compared to the weathering-stabilized planet population, suggesting the possibility of observational discrimination between these distinct climate categories.

High pCO2 Reduces Sensitivity to CO2 Perturbations on Temperate, Earth-like Planets Throughout Most of Habitable Zone

The nearly logarithmic radiative impact of CO₂ means that planets near the outer edge of the liquid water habitable zone (HZ) require ∼10⁶ × more CO₂ to maintain temperatures that are conducive to standing liquid water on the planetary surface than their counterparts near the inner edge. This logarithmic radiative response also means that atmospheric CO₂ changes of a given mass will have smaller temperature effects on higher pCO₂ planets. Ocean pH is linked to atmospheric pCO₂ through seawater carbonate speciation and calcium carbonate dissolution/precipitation, and the response of pH to changes in pCO₂ also decreases at higher initial pCO₂. Here, we use idealized climate and ocean chemistry models to demonstrate that CO₂ perturbations large enough to cause catastrophic changes to surface temperature and ocean pH on temperate, low-pCO₂ planets in the innermost region of the HZ are likely to have much smaller effects on planets with higher pCO₂, as may be the case for terrestrial planets with active carbonate-silicate cycles receiving less instellation than the Earth. Major bouts of extraterrestrial fossil fuel combustion or volcanic CO₂ outgassing on high-pCO₂ planets in the mid-to-outer HZ should have mild or negligible impacts on surface temperature and ocean pH. Owing to low pCO₂, Phanerozoic Earth's surface environment may be unusually volatile compared with similar planets receiving lower instellation.

Routes to global glaciation

Theory and observation suggest that Earth and Earth-like planets can undergo runaway low-latitude glaciation when changes in solar heating or in the carbon cycle exceed a critical threshold. Here, we use a simple dynamical-system representation of the ice-albedo feedback and the carbonate-silicate cycle to show that glaciation is also triggered when solar heating changes faster than a critical rate. Such 'rate-induced glaciations' remain accessible far from the outer edge of the habitable zone, because the warm climate state retains long-term stability. In contrast, glaciations induced by changes in the carbon cycle require the warm climate state to become unstable, constraining the kinds of perturbations that could have caused global glaciation in Earth's past. We show that glaciations can occur when Earth's climate transitions between two warm stable states; this property of the Earth system could help explain why major events in the development of life have been accompanied by glaciations.