Asymptotic analysis of endemic equilibrium to a brucellosis model

Accessibility of the three-year comprehensive prevention and control of brucellosis in Ningxia: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

Brucellosis is a chronic zoonotic disease, and Ningxia is one of the high prevalence regions in China. To mitigate the spread of brucellosis, the government of Ningxia has implemented a comprehensive prevention and control plan (2022-2024). It is meaningful to quantitatively evaluate the accessibility of this strategy.

METHODS

Based on the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Ningxia, we propose a dynamical model of sheep-human-environment, which coupling with the stage structure of sheep and indirect environmental transmission. We first calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and use the model to fit the data of human brucellosis. Then, three widely applied control strategies of brucellosis in Ningxia, that is, slaughtering of sicked sheep, health education to high risk practitioners, and immunization of adult sheep, are evaluated.

RESULTS

The basic reproduction number is calculated as [Formula: see text], indicating that human brucellosis will persist. The model has a good alignment with the human brucellosis data. The quantitative accessibility evaluation results show that current brucellosis control strategy may not reach the goal on time. "Ningxia Brucellosis Prevention and Control Special Three-Year Action Implementation Plan (2022-2024)" will be achieved in 2024 when increasing slaughtering rate [Formula: see text] by 30[Formula: see text], increasing health education to reduce [Formula: see text] to 50[Formula: see text], and an increase of immunization rate of adult sheep [Formula: see text] by 40[Formula: see text].

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate that the comprehensive control measures are the most effective for brucellosis control, and it is necessary to further strengthen the multi-sectoral joint mechanism and adopt integrated measures to prevention and control brucellosis. These results can provide a reliable quantitative basis for further optimizing the prevention and control strategy of brucellosis in Ningxia.

Interactions of periodic birth and shearing induce outbreak of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia

Brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, has brought about enormous human suffering and tremendous economic burden to animal husbandry in China. However, Inner Mongolia is the hardest hit area of brucellosis in China. A total of 132,037 human cases have been reported from 2010 to 2020. Endogenous mechanisms of brucellosis spreading across Inner Mongolia till remains to be revealed. We propose a periodic epidemic model to investigate the effect of periodic parameter changes on brucellosis epidemics. Then we evaluate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and analyze the global dynamics of the model. Furthermore, key parameters related to periodic transmission are estimated based on the monthly data of human brucellosis cases and the trend of newly infected human brucellosis cases are predicted in Inner Mongolia. Our modeling results illustrate that periodical birth and sheep shearing play a significant role in inducing periodical outbreak of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia. Moreover, it is exhibited that the annual peak number and the final scale of human brucellosis cases will be reduced dramatically with the delayed peak time of sheep birth. While the annual peak time will be lagged and the annual peak number will be decreased as the peak time of sheep shearing is postponed. In addition, we discover that it is difficult to stem brucellosis even if all sheep are vaccinated besides ewes. Nevertheless, the detection rate exceed a certain value 0.032 or the decaying rate of Brucella surpass a critical value 0.585, the human brucellosis can be regulated in Inner Mongolia according to the sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text]. The insights shed herein may contribute to the careful implementation of brucellosis control strategies in other regions.

Clinical Effect of Doxycycline Combined with Compound Sulfamethoxazole and Rifampicin in the Treatment of Brucellosis Spondylitis

Objective

The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical value of triple antibiotic therapy consisting of doxycycline, compound sulfamethoxazole and rifampicin in the treatment of brucellosis spondylitis.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was performed on 100 patients with brucellosis spondylitis admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University from March 2016 to June 2019. Patients were divided into the following two groups: the control group (n = 50) treated with dual antibiotic therapy (rifampicin + compound sulfamethoxazole), and the observation group (n = 50) treated with triple antibiotic therapy (rifampicin + doxycycline + compound sulfamethoxazole). The treatment effect, low back pain relief, levels of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP), as well as the adverse reactions were compared between the two groups.

Results

The response rate of the observation group was significantly higher than that of the control group (P < 0.05). Before treatment, there was no significant difference in the low back pain assessed by the visual analogue scale (VAS), or levels of ESR, PCT and CRP between the two groups (P > 0.05). But after treatment, the VAS score and the levels of ESR, PCT and CRP in observation group were lower than those in the control group (P < 0.05). No significant difference was found in the incidence of adverse reactions (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

The triple antibiotic therapy of doxycycline, compound sulfamethoxazole and rifampicin is effective in the treatment of brucellosis spondylitis. It can significantly alleviate patients’ back pain and inflammation with a high safety profile, which is worthy of clinical application.

Transmission dynamics of brucellosis: Mathematical modelling and applications in China

Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Meanwhile, brucellosis is one of the major public-health problems in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to show the main features of brucellosis transmission in China, we give a systematic review on the transmission dynamics of brucellosis including a series of mathematical models and their applications in China. For different situations, dynamical models of brucellosis transmission in single population and multiple populations are devised based on ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, we revealed the spatial-temporal characteristics and effective control measures of brucellosis transmission. The results may provide new perspectives for the prevention and control of other types of zoonoses.