Fasting Glucose Variability and the Risk of Dementia in Individuals with Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

A Narrative Review: Relationship Between Glycemic Variability and Emerging Complications of Diabetes Mellitus

A growing body of evidence emphasizes the role of glycemic variability (GV) in the development of conventional diabetes-related complications. Furthermore, advancements in diabetes management and increased life expectancy have led to the emergence of new complications, such as cancer, liver disease, fractures, infections, and cognitive dysfunction. GV is considered to exacerbate oxidative stress and inflammation, acting as a major mechanism underlying these complications. However, few reviews have synthesized the association between GV and these emerging complications or examined their underlying mechanisms. Hence, this narrative review provides a comprehensive discussion of the burden, risks, and mechanisms of GV in these complications, offering further evidence supporting GV as a potential therapeutic target for diabetes management.

Early Detection of Dementia in Populations With Type 2 Diabetes: Predictive Analytics Using Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

The possible association between diabetes mellitus and dementia has raised concerns, given the observed coincidental occurrences.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a personalized predictive model, using artificial intelligence, to assess the 5-year and 10-year dementia risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who are prescribed antidiabetic medications.

METHODS

This retrospective multicenter study used data from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database, which comprises electronic medical records from 3 hospitals in Taiwan. This study applied 8 machine learning algorithms to develop prediction models, including logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, gradient boosting machine, light gradient boosting machine, AdaBoost, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network (ANN). These models incorporated a range of variables, encompassing patient characteristics, comorbidities, medication usage, laboratory results, and examination data.

RESULTS

This study involved a cohort of 43,068 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus, which accounted for a total of 1,937,692 visits. For model development and validation, 1,300,829 visits were used, while an additional 636,863 visits were reserved for external testing. The area under the curve of the prediction models range from 0.67 for the logistic regression to 0.98 for the ANNs. Based on the external test results, the model built using the ANN algorithm had the best area under the curve (0.97 for 5-year follow-up period and 0.98 for 10-year follow-up period). Based on the best model (ANN), age, gender, triglyceride, hemoglobin A1c, antidiabetic agents, stroke history, and other long-term medications were the most important predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

We have successfully developed a novel, computer-aided, dementia risk prediction model that can facilitate the clinical diagnosis and management of patients prescribed with antidiabetic medications. However, further investigation is required to assess the model's feasibility and external validity.

Increased Risk of Alzheimer's Disease With Glycemic Variability: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

There is increasing evidence that establishes a connection between fluctuations in glucose metabolism and the onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Current research supports the notion that this metabolic imbalance significantly affects cognitive health. However, the specific mechanisms through which these fluctuations influence neurodegeneration, eventually leading to AD, require further exploration. This study aims to determine the risk of AD among individuals with fluctuations in blood glucose levels, with or without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), further providing the most recent and thorough overview of the evidence in this area. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines, a thorough search was carried out utilizing particular phrases in the PubMed, Elsevier, Research Gate, and Cochrane databases: ("glucose variability" or "glycemic variability" or "glucose fluctuation" or "glucose instability" or "glycemic fluctuation") and ("Alzheimer's disease" or "Alzheimer disease" or "Alzheimer dementia" or "Alzheimer"). Studies published between January 2014 to January 2024, written in English, and examining the relationship between glucose variability and AD, were included. The outcomes measured were risk of cognitive impairment and AD, cognitive performance, and risk of AD. The results of the literature search produced 142 records, with six studies meeting the eligibility criteria. Parameters for glycemic variability included fasting plasma glucose (FPG) variability, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) variability, FPG variability independent of the mean (VIM), FPG coefficient of variation (CV), and FPG standard deviation (SD). The studies revealed a positive correlation between glycemic variability and the risk of AD over time, and the findings indicated that maintaining stable glycemic levels may reduce the risk of cognitive decline among individuals with or without T2DM. Due to the small number of studies that are currently available, despite a calculated relative risk of 2.65 indicating a higher risk of AD among subjects with glycemic variability, the inclusion of the null value in the confidence interval (0.61-11.45) renders these findings not statistically significant. This comprehensive review demonstrated that, in people with or without diabetes, glycemic variability influences cognitive decline and the risk of AD. The studies demonstrated a correlation between higher fluctuations in glucose levels and an increased risk of AD, highlighting the importance of managing blood sugar levels to mitigate dementia risks. Despite these strong associations, the actual incidence rates of AD in the studied populations remained relatively low. Overall, the results were not statistically significant. Further research is recommended to explore the risk of AD among individuals with fluctuations in blood glucose levels.

Glycated Hemoglobin A1c Time in Range and Dementia in Older Adults With Diabetes

Importance

Individuals with diabetes commonly experience Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD). Factors such as hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, and glycemic variability have been associated with increased risk of ADRD. Traditional glycemic measures, such as mean glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), may not identify the dynamic and complex pathophysiologic factors in the association between diabetes and ADRD. The HbA1c time in range (TIR) is a previously developed measure of glycemic control that expresses HbA1c stability over time within specific ranges. This measure may inform the current understanding of the association between glucose levels over time and ADRD incidence.

Objective

To examine the association between HbA1c TIR and incidence of ADRD in older veterans with diabetes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The study sample for this cohort study was obtained from administrative and health care utilization data from the Veterans Health Administration and Medicare from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2018. Veterans 65 years or older with diabetes were assessed. Participants were required to have at least 4 HbA1c tests during the 3-year baseline period, which could start between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2014. Data analysis was conducted between July and December 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hemoglobin A1c TIR was calculated as the percentage of days during baseline in which HbA1c was in individualized target ranges based on clinical characteristics and life expectancy, with higher HbA1c TIR viewed as more favorable. The association between HbA1c TIR and ADRD incidence was estimated. Additional models considered ADRD incidence in participants who were above or below HbA1c target ranges most of the time.

Results

The study included 374 021 veterans with diabetes (mean [SD] age, 73.2 [5.8] years; 369 059 [99%] male). During follow-up of up to 10 years, 41 424 (11%) developed ADRD. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models showed that lower HbA1c TIR was associated with increased risk of incident ADRD (HbA1c TIR of 0 to <20% compared with ≥80%: hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.23). Furthermore, the direction of out-of-range HbA1c levels was associated with incident ADRD. Having greater time below range (≥60%, compared with ≥60% TIR) was associated with significantly increased risk (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.27). Findings remained significant after excluding individuals with baseline use of medications associated with hypoglycemia risk (ie, insulin and sulfonylureas) or with hypoglycemia events.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study of older adults with diabetes, increased HbA1c stability within patient-specific target ranges was associated with a lower risk of ADRD. Lower HbA1c TIR may identify patients at increased risk of ADRD.

Association of remnant cholesterol with risk of dementia: a nationwide population-based cohort study in South Korea

BACKGROUND

The association between remnant cholesterol (remnant-C) and cardiovascular disease risk is well established, but its association with dementia remains unclear. We aimed to examine this association using a large-scale population dataset.

METHODS

We did a nationwide, population-based cohort study in which we identified participants aged 40 years and older who underwent the national health examination in 2009 from South Korea's National Health Insurance Service. We excluded people who were younger than 40 years and those with a triglyceride concentration of 400 mg/dL or higher due to concerns regarding the accuracy of calculated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration in individuals with extremely high triglyceride concentrations. People who were previously diagnosed with dementia before the index date, and those who had any missing variables were also excluded. To minimise the influence of possible reverse causation, we excluded individuals who had developed any type of dementia within 1 year of the baseline measurements. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and vascular dementia in each quartile of remnant-C using the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, body-mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, income level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, diabetes, hypertension, statin and fibrate use, and total cholesterol concentrations. We also did subgroup analyses to investigate the association between remnant-C and the risk of dementia stratified by age, sex, obesity, glycaemic status (normoglycaemia, impaired fasting glucose, new-onset type 2 diabetes, type 2 diabetes with a duration of less than 5 years, and type 2 diabetes with a duration of 5 years or more), hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidaemia, using likelihood ratio tests.

FINDINGS

4 234 415 individuals who underwent the national health examination in 2009 were deemed eligible for inclusion. We excluded 1 612 819 individuals on the basis of age, triglyceride concentration, missing variables, or having dementia at baseline. We identified 2 621 596 participants aged 40 years and older (1 305 556 men and 1 316 040 women) who underwent the national health examination and followed them up until the date of any incident of dementia or the end of the study period of Dec 31, 2020. During a median follow-up of 10·3 years (IQR 10·1-10·6), 146 991 (5·6%) participants developed all-cause dementia, 117 739 (4·5%) developed Alzheimer's disease, and 14 536 (0·6%) developed vascular dementia. The risk of dementia increased progressively with higher remnant-C concentrations. Compared with the lowest quartile of remnant-C (quartile 1), HRs in the highest quartile (quartile 4) were 1·11 (95% CI 1·09-1·13) for all-cause dementia, 1·11 (1·08-1·13) for Alzheimer's disease, and 1·15 (1·09-1·21) for vascular dementia. Subgroup analyses revealed that the risk of dementia associated with high remnant-C concentrations was higher in middle-aged people aged 40-59 years than in older people. The risk of dementia associated with high concentrations of remnant-C was notably more pronounced in individuals with diabetes compared with those without diabetes, and the risk increased steeply with a longer duration of diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

Results showed that higher remnant-C concentrations were independently associated with increased risks of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and vascular dementia. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms underlying this finding. Monitoring and managing higher concentrations of remnant-C might have important implications for reducing the risk of dementia.

FUNDING

None.

Effect of glucose variability on the mortality of adults aged 75 years and over during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

To our knowledge, only one study has examined the association between glucose variability (GV) and mortality in the elderly population with diabetes. GV was assessed by HbA1c, and a J-shaped curve was observed in the relationship between HbA1c thresholds and mortality. No study of GV was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdown. This study aims to evaluate whether GV is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients aged 75 years or older with and without COVID-19 who were followed during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdown measures.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 407,492 patients from the AGED-MADRID dataset aged 83.5 (SD 5.8) years; 63.2% were women, and 29.3% had diabetes. GV was measured by the coefficient of variation of fasting plasma glucose (CV-FPG) over 6 years of follow-up (2015-2020). The outcome measure was all-cause mortality in 2020. Four models of logistic regression were performed, from simple (age, sex) to fully adjusted, to assess the effect of CV-FPG on all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 34,925 patients died (14,999 women and 19,926 men), with an all-cause mortality rate of 822.3 per 10,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI), 813.7 to 822.3) (739 per 10,000; 95% CI 728.7 to 739.0 in women and 967.1 per 10,000; 95% CI 951.7 to 967.2 in men). The highest quartile of CV-FPG was significantly more common in the deceased group (40.1% vs. 23.6%; p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model including dementia (Alzheimer's disease) and basal FPG, the odds ratio for mortality ranged from 1.88 to 2.06 in patients with T2DM and from 2.30 to 2.61 in patients with normoglycaemia, according to different sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

GV has clear implications for clinical practice, as its assessment as a risk prediction tool should be included in the routine follow-up of the elderly and in a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Electronic health records can incorporate tools that allow its calculation, and with this information, clinicians will have a broader view of the medium- and long-term prognosis of their patients.

The relationship between diabetes and the dementia risk: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The link between diabetes and dementia risk is not well understood. This study evaluates the factors linking diabetes to dementia onset, providing guidance for preventing dementia in diabetic patients.

METHODS

This analysis utilized databases such as PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to review literature from January 31, 2012, to March 5, 2023. Articles were rigorously assessed using specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to evaluate the quality of the studies. Data analysis was performed with STATA 15.0.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 15 articles, covering 10,103,868 patients, with 8,821,516 diagnosed with diabetes. The meta-analysis reveals a substantial association between diabetes and an increased risk of dementia [RR: 1.59, 95%CI (1.40-1.80), P < 0.01, I²=96.4%]. A diabetes duration of less than five years is linked to a higher dementia risk [RR: 1.29, 95%CI (1.20-1.39), P < 0.01, I²=92.6%]. Additionally, hypoglycemia significantly raises dementia risk [RR: 1.56, 95%CI (1.13-2.16), P < 0.01, I²=51.5%]. Analyses of blood sugar control, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting blood sugar indicated no significant effects on the onset of dementia.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes notably increases dementia risk, particularly where diabetes duration is under five years or hypoglycemia is present.

REGISTRATION

The research protocol was registered with PROSPERO and assigned the registration number CRD42023394942.

Fasting glucose variability and risk of dementia in Parkinson's disease: a 9-year longitudinal follow-up study of a nationwide cohort

Background

Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD); however, it is unknown whether this association is dependent on continuous hyperglycemia, hypoglycemic events, or glycemic variability. We aimed to investigate the relationship between visit-to-visit fasting glucose variability and PDD development in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD).

Methods

Using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, we examined 9,264 patients aged ≥40 years with de novo Parkinson's disease (PD) who underwent ≥3 health examinations and were followed up until December 2019. Glucose variability was measured using the coefficient of variation, variability independent of the mean, and average real variability. Fine and Gray competing regression analysis was performed to determine the effect of glucose variability on incident PDD.

Results

During the 9.5-year follow-up period, 1,757 of 9,264 (19.0%) patients developed PDD. Patients with a higher visit-to-visit glucose variability had a higher risk of future PDD. In the multivariable adjusted model, patients with PD in the highest quartile (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] = 1.50, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.88), quartile 3 (SHR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.62), and quartile 2 (SHR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.63) were independently associated with a higher risk of PDD than those in the lowest quartile.

Conclusion

We highlighted the effect of long-term glucose variability on the development of PDD in patients with PD. Furthermore, our findings suggest that preventive measures for constant glucose control may be necessary to prevent PDD.

Cumulative effect of impaired fasting glucose on the risk of dementia in middle-aged and elderly people: a nationwide cohort study

The relationship between prediabetes and dementia remains controversial. We aimed to examine the association between cumulative exposure to impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and the risk of dementia in the general population. 1,463,066 middle-aged and elderly subjects who had had health examinations for four consecutive years were identified from a Korean nationwide population-based cohort database. IFG was defined as fasting blood glucose 100-125 mg/dL, and the risk of dementia-according to the number of IFG exposure (range 0-4)-was analyzed using the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model. During the median 6.4 years of follow-up, 7614 cases of all-cause dementia, 5603 cases of Alzheimer's disease, and 1257 cases of vascular dementia occurred. There was a significant trend towards a higher risk of all-cause dementia (P for trend = 0.014) and Alzheimer's disease ( Pfor trend = 0.005) according to the cumulative exposure to IFG, but with a modest (approximately 7-14%) increase in the hazards. A significant stepwise increase in the risk of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease was seen in non-obese subjects, whereas no significant association was observed in obese subjects. This study supports the association between prediabetes and incident dementia and emphasizes that even mild hyperglycemia should not be overlooked.

Physiological Mechanisms Inherent to Diabetes Involved in the Development of Dementia: Alzheimer's Disease

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a metabolic disease reaching pandemic levels worldwide. In parallel, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD) are the two leading causes of dementia in an increasingly long-living Western society. Numerous epidemiological studies support the role of T2D as a risk factor for the development of dementia. However, few basic science studies have focused on the possible mechanisms involved in this relationship. On the other hand, this review of the literature also aims to explore the relationship between T2D, AD and VaD. The data found show that there are several alterations in the central nervous system that may be promoting the development of T2D. In addition, there are some mechanisms by which T2D may contribute to the development of neurodegenerative diseases such as AD or VaD.

The effects of long-term cumulative HbA1c exposure on the development and onset time of dementia in the patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: hospital based retrospective study (2005-2021)

AIMS

We examine cumulative effect of long-term glycemic exposure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on the development of dementia.

METHODS

The study involved 20,487 records of patients with T2DM identified in the electronic medical record at Severance Hospital, Korea. Cumulative HbA1c (AUC_HbA1c) and mean HbA1c over time (HbA1c_avg) as measures of long-term glycemic exposure were compared for the development of dementia and the time to dementia.

RESULTS

AUC_HbA1c and HbA1c_avg were significantly higher in patients who later developed dementia than in those who did not dementia (AUC_HbA1c: 56.2 ± 26.4 vs. 52.1 ± 26.1 %*Year; HbA1c_avg: 7.0 ± 1.0 vs. 7.3 ± 1.0 %). Odds ratio of dementia increased when HbA1c_avg was 7.2% (55 mmol/mol) or above, and when AUC_HbA1c was 42 %*Year (e.g., HbA1c 7.0% maintained for 6 years) or above. Among those who developed dementia, as HbA1c_avg increased, the time to dementia onset decreased (β = -380.6 days, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -416.2 to -345.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate poorly controlled T2DM was associated with an increased risk of developing dementia, as measured by AUC_HbA1c and HbA1c_avg. Higher cumulative glycemic exposure may lead to developing dementia in a shorter time.

The Association of Glucose Variability and Dementia Incidence in Latinx Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: A Retrospective Study

Latinx adults with both cognitive dysfunction and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are significantly more likely than Latinx adults with diabetes alone to have complications such as cardiovascular disease. Glucose variability may be a risk for dementia, but the course of glucose variability in the time before a dementia diagnosis for Latinx adults with T2DM has not been examined. We used a 10-year retrospective cohort of medical records of Latinx patients with T2DM who had at least one use of a continuous glucose monitor. The objective was to examine how glucose variability was associated with future dementia diagnoses. A total of 116 charts were included. Mean of daily differences and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions were more strongly associated with dementia diagnoses than other variability indices (p < .01). Understanding the relationships between cognitive function, glucose variability, and barriers to health care can translate into improved interventions to enhance diabetes care.