Sluggish decline in a post-transplant model for end-stage liver disease score is a predictor of mortality in living donor liver transplantation

Utility of post-liver transplantation MELD and delta MELD in predicting early and late mortality

INTRODUCTION

The performance of early post-liver transplantation (post-LT) model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) or even its dynamic changes over time (ΔMELD) in predicting the mortality after LT is still controversial.

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of absolute and ΔMELD calculated at days 7 and 30 after LT to predict 1- and 5-year mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data of 209 consecutive patients who underwent LT in two centers were reviewed. Patients who received LT for hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded, as well as those who did not survive for at least 1 month. MELD and [INCREMENT]MELD were calculated for each patient at 7 and 30 days after LT.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty-six patients were included, mostly male [104 (66.7%)] with a mean age of 51.9±8.8 years. The main indications for transplantation were decompensated hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis [138 (88.5%)] and hepatitis C and B virus co-infection [10 (6.4%)]. Grafts were obtained from 104 living donors and 52 deceased donors. Survival at 1 and 5 years was 89.7 and 85.9%, respectively, with a mean survival of 52.3±1.5 months. In univariate analysis, both absolute and ΔMELD at postoperative days 7 and 30 significantly predicted 1- and 5-year post-LT mortality. In multivariate analysis, MELD at postoperative day 30 was significantly associated with 1- (odds ratio: 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.14-1.35, P<0.0001) and 5-year mortality (odds ratio: 1.23, 95% confidence interval: 1.14-1.33, P<0.0001). The area under the curve for MELD at 30 days post-LT in the prediction of mortality was 0.823 (P=0.01) at 1 year and 0.812 (P<0.001) at 5 years. A cutoff of post-LT day 30 MELD less than 10 could predict mortality with a sensitivity and specificity of 90 and 68.1% at 1 year and 81.3 and 69.7% at 5 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Failure of the MELD score to decline over the first postoperative month to less than 10 is a significant predictor of both early and late post-LT mortality.

Perioperative predictors for refractory hyperglycemia during the neohepatic phase of liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Hyperglycemia in the neohepatic phase of liver transplantation (LT) tends to decrease toward completion of the surgical procedure. Refractory hyperglycemia in the neohepatic phase (RH) is influenced by multiple perioperative factors and may be connected to posttransplant outcomes. We attempted to demonstrate the relationship of RH to posttransplant outcomes and to establish a predictive model for RH in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

METHODS

Perioperative data of 211 patients who underwent LDLT from 2009 and 2012 were reviewed, including declines in the blood glucose levels during the neohepatic phase. Perioperative variables including the posttransplant model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score until day 30 were compared between patients with normal declines in blood glucose and patients with RH. Selected variables after intergroup comparisons were examined by means of multivariate logistic regression to establish a predictive model for RH occurrence.

RESULTS

The mean blood glucose decline was 22.3 ± 31.5 mg/dL during the neohepatic phase, and 84 of 203 patients (41.4%) had no decline in blood glucose. In intergroup comparisons, preoperative factors associated with RH included sex, Child-Pugh-Turcotte class, MELD score, emergency, liver enzymes, and graft-to-recipient weight ratio. During surgery, surgical time, serum lactate, and arterial pH were associated with RH. After surgery, the RH group showed slower recovery of the MELD score (15.2 versus 11.9 days) and higher MELD scores until day 10 (P < .05). After the multivariate analysis, recipient sex, emergency, surgical time (≤9 h), and the final intraoperative serum lactate level (≥5.0 mmol/L) were included in the predictive model for RH.

CONCLUSIONS

RH was associated with delayed functional recovery of the liver graft in LT. Recipient sex, emergency, surgical time, and the final intraoperative serum lactate level were identified as predictors of RH. Close monitoring of intraoperative blood glucose in LDLT may be an early prognostic indicator.

Increased B-type natriuretic peptide during liver transplantation: relationship to invasively measured hemodynamic parameters

BACKGROUND

The role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) concentration in predicting cardiac dysfunction has been extensively investigated in many clinical conditions. Little is known, however, about its relationships with hemodynamic parameters from right heart catheterization in patients undergoing liver transplant surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 525 patients who underwent liver transplantation. Hemodynamic variables from a Swan-Ganz catheter and BNP concentrations were measured 1 hour after induction of general anesthesia. Patients were stratified by quintiles of BNP concentrations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify hemodynamic parameters associated with BNP ≥ 135 pg/mL, a cutoff point for the 5th quintile.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that factors significantly associated with BNP ≥ 135 pg/mL included model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, diastolic blood pressure, mean pulmonary artery pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP), cardiac index, right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI), systemic vascular resistance index, pulmonary vascular resistance index (PVRI), and right ventricular stroke work index. Multivariate analysis revealed that MELD score (odds ratio [OR] = 1.059, P < .001), PCWP (OR = 1.116, P = .026), RVEDVI (OR = 1.010, P = .009), and PVRI (OR = 1.009, P = .002) were independent determinants of BNP ≥ 135 pg/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Severity of liver disease, preload dependent hemodynamic parameters, and pulmonary vascular resistance were found to be significantly associated with increased BNP concentration, reinforcing the utility of BNP as a marker of cardiac strain and ventricular volume overload in liver failure patients undergoing liver transplant surgery.

Evaluation of intraoperative brain natriuretic peptide as a predictor of 1-year mortality after liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Although brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), a marker of cardiac dysfunction, has been known to predict postoperative mortality, little is known about the postoperative prognostic ability of BNP in liver transplantation (OLT) recipients. We aimed to determine whether intraoperative BNP level can predict 1-year all-cause mortality after OLT.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 525 OLT recipients. BNP and hemodynamic parameters were simultaneously measured 1 hour after induction of anesthesia. Cox regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were performed to determine clinical predictors and optimal cutoff values of post-OLT mortality.

RESULTS

The 1-year all-cause mortality rate was 9.7% (51/525). Median BNP concentration was significantly higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (114 vs 56 pg/mL, P < .001). Significant factors in univariate Cox regression analysis were Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, logBNP, hemoglobin, creatinine, heart rate, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure, and central venous pressure. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, independent predictors of posttransplant mortality were MELD score and logBNP. However, simultaneously measured hemodynamic parameters did not remain predictors. BNP levels greater than a cutoff of 136 pg/mL (specificity = 83.5%, negative predictive value = 93.6%) were associated with increased post-OLT mortality (log-rank test P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Intraoperative BNP level is an independent predictor of 1-year all-cause mortality after OLT with a high negative predictive value, suggesting that its measurement appears useful in identifying patients at low risk of post-OLT mortality.