Development and Internal Validation of a Predictive Model for Individual Cancer Risk Assessment for Thyroid Nodules

External Validation of a Predictive Model for Thyroid Cancer Risk with Decision Curve Analysis

Background/Objectives: Thyroid cancer ranks among the most prevalent endocrine neoplasms, with a significant rise in incidence observed in recent decades, particularly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). This increase is largely attributed to the enhanced detection of subclinical cancers through advanced imaging techniques and fine-needle aspiration biopsies. The present study aims to externally validate a predictive model previously developed by our group, designed to assess the risk of a thyroid nodule being malignant. Methods: By utilizing clinical, analytical, ultrasound, and histological data from patients treated at the Puerto Real University Hospital, this study seeks to evaluate the performance of the predictive model in a distinct dataset and perform a decision curve analysis to ascertain its clinical utility. Results: A total of 455 patients with thyroid nodular pathology were studied. Benign nodular pathology was diagnosed in 357 patients (78.46%), while 98 patients (21.54%) presented with a malignant tumor. The most frequent histological type of malignant tumor was papillary cancer (71.4%), followed by follicular cancer (6.1%). Malignant nodules were predominantly solid (95.9%), hypoechogenic (72.4%), with irregular or microlobed borders (36.7%), and associated with suspicious lymph nodes (24.5%). The decision curve analysis confirmed the model's accuracy and its potential impact on clinical decision-making. Conclusions: The external validation of our predictive model demonstrates its robustness and generalizability across different populations and clinical settings. The integration of advanced diagnostic tools, such as AI and ML models, improves the accuracy in distinguishing between benign and malignant nodules, thereby optimizing treatment strategies and minimizing invasive procedures. This approach not only facilitates the early detection of cancer but also helps to avoid unnecessary surgeries and biopsies, ultimately reducing patient morbidity and healthcare costs.

Computer-interpretable guidelines: electronic tools to enhance the utility of thyroid nodule clinical practice guidelines and risk stratification tools

Clinicians seeking guidance for evaluating and managing thyroid nodules currently have several resources. The principal ones are narrative clinical guidelines and clinical risk calculators. This paper will review the strengths and weaknesses of both. The paper will introduce a concept of computer interpretable guideline, a novel way of transforming narrative guidelines in to a clinical decision support tool that can provide patient specific recommendations at the point of care. The paper then describes an experience of developing an interactive web based computer interpretable guideline for thyroid nodule management, called Thyroid Nodule Management App (TNAPP). The advantages of this approach and the potential barriers for widespread adaptation are discussed.

Development of a Risk Predictive Model for Evaluating Immune Infiltration Status in Invasive Thyroid Carcinoma

Aims

This study aimed to reveal the molecular characteristics and potential biomarker of immune-activated and immunosuppressive invasive thyroid carcinoma.

Methods

Expression and clinical data for invasive thyroid carcinoma were obtained from the TCGA database. Tumor samples were divided into immune-activated or immunosuppressive groups based on the immune enrichment score calculated by ssGSEA. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between tumor vs. normal groups or between immune-activated vs. immunosuppressive groups were screened, followed by functional enrichment. Immune infiltration was evaluated using the ESTIMATE, CIBERSORTx, and EPIC algorithms, respectively. A random forest algorithm and Lasso cox analysis were used to identify gene signatures for risk model construction.

Results

Totally 1171 DEGs were screened between tumor vs. normal groups, and multiple tumorigenesis-associated pathways were significantly activated in invasive thyroid carcinoma. Compared to immune-activated samples, immunosuppressive samples showed higher tumor purity, lower immune/stromal scores, and lower expression of immune markers, as well as lower infiltration abundance of CD4+ T cells and CD8+ T cells. A risk model based on a 12-immune signature (CCR7, CD1B, CD86, CSF2RB, HCK, HLA-DQA1, LTA, LTB, LYZ, NOD2, TNFRSF9, and TNFSF11) was developed to evaluate the immune infiltration status (AUC = 0.998; AUC of 0.958 and 0.979 in the two external validation datasets), which showed a higher clinical benefit and high accuracy. Immune-activated samples presented lower IC50 value for bortezomib, MG.132, staurosporine, and AZD8055, indicating sensitivity to these drugs.

Conclusion

A 12-gene-based immune signature was developed to predict the immune infiltration status for invasive thyroid carcinoma patients and then to identify the subsets of invasive thyroid carcinoma patients who might benefit from immunotherapy.