Direct and Indirect Serum Markers of Liver Fibrosis Compared with Transient Elastography among Women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study

Routine blood test markers for predicting liver disease post HBV infection: precision pathology and pattern recognition

BACKGROUND

Early stages of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection usually involve inflammation of the liver. Patients with chronic infection have an increased risk of progressive liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and life-threatening clinical complications of end-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

CONTENT

Early diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis and timely clinical management are critical to controlling disease progression and decreasing the burden of end-stage liver cancer. Fibrosis staging, through its current gold standard, liver biopsy, improves patient outcomes, but the clinical procedure is invasive with unpleasant post-procedural complications. Routine blood test markers offer promising diagnostic potential for early detection of liver disease without biopsy. There is a plethora of candidate routine blood test markers that have gone through phases of biomarker validation and have shown great promise, but their current limitations include a predictive ability that is limited to only a few stages of fibrosis. However, the advent of machine learning, notably pattern recognition, presents an opportunity to refine blood-based non-invasive models of hepatic fibrosis in the future.

SUMMARY

In this review, we highlight the current landscape of routine blood-based non-invasive models of hepatic fibrosis, and appraise the potential application of machine learning (pattern recognition) algorithms to refining these models and optimising clinical predictions of HBV-associated liver disease.

OUTLOOK

Machine learning via pattern recognition algorithms takes data analytics to a new realm, and offers the opportunity for enhanced multi-marker fibrosis stage prediction using pathology profile that leverages information across patient routine blood tests.

The HIV Genomic Incidence Assay Meets False Recency Rate and Mean Duration of Recency Infection Performance Standards

HIV incidence is a primary metric for epidemic surveillance and prevention efficacy assessment. HIV incidence assay performance is evaluated via false recency rate (FRR) and mean duration of recent infection (MDRI). We conducted a meta-analysis of 438 incident and 305 chronic specimens' HIV envelope genes from a diverse global cohort. The genome similarity index (GSI) accurately characterized infection stage across diverse host and viral factors. All except one chronic specimen had GSIs below 0.67, yielding a FRR of 0.33 [0-0.98] %. We modeled the incidence assay biomarker dynamics with a logistic link function assuming individual variabilities in a Beta distribution. The GSI probability density function peaked close to 1 in early infection and 0 around two years post infection, yielding MDRI of 420 [361, 467] days. We tested the assay by newly sequencing 744 envelope genes from 59 specimens of 21 subjects who followed from HIV negative status. Both standardized residuals and Anderson-Darling tests showed that the test dataset was statistically consistent with the model biomarker dynamics. This is the first reported incidence assay meeting the optimal FRR and MDRI performance standards. Signatures of HIV gene diversification can allow precise cross-sectional surveillance with a desirable temporal range of incidence detection.

HCV co-infection and markers of liver injury and fibrosis among HIV-positive childbearing women in Ukraine: results from a cohort study

Background

Ukraine’s injecting drug use-driven HIV epidemic is among the most severe in Europe with high burden of HCV co-infection. HIV/HCV co-infected individuals are at elevated risk of HCV-related morbidity, but little is known about burden of liver disease and associated factors in the HIV-positive population in Ukraine, particularly among women.

Methods

Characteristics of 2050 HIV-positive women enrolled into the Ukrainian Study of HIV-infected Childbearing Women were described by HCV serostatus. Aspartate transaminase (AST) to platelet ratio (APRI) and FIB-4 scores were calculated and exact logistic regression models fitted to investigate factors associated with significant fibrosis (APRI >1.5) among 762 women with an APRI score available.

Results

Of 2050 HIV-positive women (median age 27.7 years, IQR 24.6-31.3), 33% were HCV co-infected (79% of those with a history of injecting drug use vs 23% without) and 17% HBsAg positive. A quarter were on antiretroviral therapy at postnatal cohort enrolment. 1% of the HIV/HCV co-infected group had ever received treatment for HCV. Overall, 24% had an alanine aminotransferase level >41 U/L and 34% an elevated AST (53% and 61% among HIV/HCV co-infected). Prevalence of significant fibrosis was 4.5%; 2.5% among 445 HIV mono-infected and 12.3% among 171 HIV/HCV co-infected women. 1.2% had a FIB-4 score >3.25 indicating advanced fibrosis. HCV RNA testing in a sub-group of 56 HIV/HCV co-infected women indicated a likely spontaneous clearance rate of 18% and predominance of HCV genotype 1, with one-third having genotype 3 infection. Factors associated with significant fibrosis were HCV co-infection (AOR 2.53 95%CI 1.03-6.23), history of injecting drug use (AOR 3.51 95%CI 1.39-8.89), WHO stage 3-4 HIV disease (AOR 3.47 95%CI 1.51-7.99 vs stage 1-2 HIV disease) and not being on combination antiretroviral therapy (AOR 3.08 95%CI 1.23-7.74), adjusted additionally for HBV co-infection, smoking and age.

Conclusions

Most HIV/HCV co-infected women had elevated liver enzymes and 12% had significant fibrosis according to APRI. Risk factors for liver fibrosis in this young HIV-positive population include poorly controlled HIV and high burden of HCV. Results highlight the importance of addressing modifiable risk factors and rolling out HCV treatment to improve the health outcomes of this group.