Validation of prognostic impact of ADV score for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: analysis using Korea Liver Cancer Registry Database

Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry

Compared to overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study developed and validated a nomogram-based dynamic prognostic model to predict the conditional survival estimates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through an analysis of a nationwide cancer registry. This retrospective cohort study included 2492 patients with HCC registered in the Korea Liver Cancer Registry. Patients underwent hepatic resection (HR) from 2008 to 2017, were followed up until December 2019, and were divided into development and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to determine the risk factors for conditional survival of patients who underwent HR. The patients were scored based on the Cox regression coefficients; the nomogram was predicted by calculating the survival probability with Cox model. Our dynamic prognostic model nomogram for predicting conditional overall survival demonstrated Harrell's C-index of 0.622 and 0.674 in the development and validation sets; for conditional disease-specific survival, it was 0.623 and 0.686 in the development and validation sets. The prediction power of the model is applicable in clinical practice. Factors incorporated in our nomogram included age, albumin, the ADV score, lymph node metastasis, and T stage in American Joint Commission on Cancer staging system. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict conditional survival estimates for overall survival and disease-specific survival. The proposed nomogram incorporating the ADV score presents a more accurate and useful prognostic prediction for patients with HCC who received HR.

Early identification of hepatocellular carcinoma patients at high-risk of recurrence using the ADV score: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative recurrence is a vital reason for poor 5-year overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The ADV score is considered a parameter that can quantify HCC aggressiveness. This study aimed to identify HCC patients at high-risk of recurrence early using the ADV score.

METHODS

The medical data of consecutive HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (TFAHNJMU) and Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital (NJDTH) were retrospectively reviewed. Based on the status of microvascular invasion and the Edmondson-Steiner grade, HCC patients were divided into three groups: low-risk group (group 1: no risk factor exists), medium-risk group (group 2: one risk factor exists), and high-risk group (group 3: coexistence of two risk factors). In the training cohort (TFAHNJMU), the R package nnet was used to establish a multi-categorical unordered logistic regression model based on the ADV score to predict three risk groups. The Welch's T-test was used to compare differences in clinical variables in three predicted risk groups. NJDTH served as an external validation center. At last, the confusion matrix was developed using the R package caret to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the model.

RESULTS

350 and 405 patients from TFAHNJMU and NJDTH were included. HCC patients in different risk groups had significantly different liver function and inflammation levels. Density maps demonstrated that the ADV score could best differentiate between the three risk groups. The probability curve was plotted according to the predicted results of the multi-categorical unordered logistic regression model, and the best cut-off values of the ADV score were as follows: low-risk ≤ 3.4 log, 3.4 log < medium-risk ≤ 5.7 log, and high-risk > 5.7 log. The sensitivities of the ADV score predicting the high-risk group (group 3) were 70.2% (99/141) and 78.8% (63/80) in the training and external validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The ADV score might become a valuable marker for screening patients at high-risk of HCC recurrence with a cut-off value of 5.7 log, which might help surgeons, pathologists, and HCC patients make appropriate clinical decisions.

Evolving trends in treatment patterns for hepatocellular carcinoma in Korea from 2008 to 2022: a nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

The treatment landscape for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has significantly evolved over the past decade. We aimed to analyze trends in treatment patterns for HCC using a nationwide claims database from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based cohort study analyzed 171,002 newly diagnosed HCC patients between 2008 and 2022. Etiologies and treatment modalities were categorized based on the ICD-10 codes and insurance data.

RESULTS

The annual incidence decreased from 11,814 in 2008 to 10,443 in 2022. However, patients aged ≥70 increased noticeably, with those aged ≥80 rising from 3.8% in 2008 to 13.1% in 2022. From 2008 to 2022, the predominant cause of hepatitis B virus decreased from 68.9% to 59.7%, whereas nonalcoholic fatty liver disease increased from 8.9% to 15.8%. The initial treatment trends shifted: surgical resection and systemic therapy increased from 12.2% to 21.3% and from 0.2% to 9.6%, whereas transarterial therapy decreased from 49.9% to 36.6%. Best supportive care decreased from 31.7% to 21.3%. In the subgroup analysis, laparoscopic resection rate increased from 10.6% to 60.6% among the surgical resections. Sorafenib initially accounted for 100%, lenvatinib peaked at 36.5% in 2021, and atezolizumab-bevacizumab became the most widely used (63.1%) by 2022 among the systemic therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the temporal changes in the treatment patterns of Korean HCC patients. Surgical resection, particularly laparoscopic liver resection, and systemic therapy has increased significantly. These changes may have been influenced by reimbursement policies and advances in clinical research.

Validation of quantitative prognostic prediction using ADV score for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: A Korea-Japan collaborative study with 9200 patients

BACKGROUND

A score derived from the concentrations of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and tumor volume (TV), called ADV score, has been shown to be prognostic of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following hepatic resection (HR) or liver transplantation.

METHODS

This multicenter, multinational validation study included 9200 patients who underwent HR from 2010 to 2017 at 10 Korean and 73 Japanese centers, and were followed up until 2020.

RESULTS

AFP, DCP, and TV showed weak correlations (ρ ≤ .463, r ≤ .189, p < .001). Disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and post-recurrence survival rates were dependent on 1.0 log and 2.0 log intervals of ADV scores (p < .001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that ADV score cutoffs of 5.0 log for DFS and OS yielded the areas under the curve ≥ .577, with both being significantly prognostic of tumor recurrence and patient mortality at 3 years. ADV score cutoffs of ADV 4.0 log and 8.0 log, derived through K-adaptive partitioning method, showed higher prognostic contrasts in DFS and OS. ROC curve analysis showed that an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log was suggestive of microvascular invasion, with both microvascular invasion and an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log showing similar DFS rates.

CONCLUSIONS

This international validation study demonstrated that ADV score is an integrated surrogate biomarker for post-resection prognosis of HCC. Prognostic prediction using ADV score can provide reliable information that can assist in planning treatment of patients with different stages of HCC and guide individualized post-resection follow-up based on the relative risk of HCC recurrence.

Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma - The Changing Tides

Portal vein involvement is considered one of the most fearful complications of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is associated with aggressive tumor biology (high grade), high tumor burden (number and size of lesions), high levels of serum markers (AFP), poor liver function (deranged LFT), and poor performance status of patients. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system places HCC patients with PVTT in advanced stage (BCLC Stage-C). This group contains a fairly heterogeneous patient population, previously considered candidates for palliative systemic therapy with sorafenib. However, this provided modest overall survival (OS) benefit. The results of a recent Phase III (IMbrave150) trial favor the combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab over sorafenib as a standard of care in advanced unresectable HCC. While only lenvatinib proved to be non-inferior against sorafenib in a phase III (REFLECT trial), regorafenib (RESORCE trial), ramucirumab (REACH-2), and cabozantinib (CELESTIAL) have been approved second-line therapy in phase III clinical trials. Recently, the data on the prospect of other modalities in the management of HCC with PVTT is mounting with favorable results. Targeting multiple pathways in the HCC cascade using a combination of drugs and other modalities such as RT, TACE, TARE, and HAIC appear effective for systemic and loco-regional control. The quest for the ideal combination therapy and the sequence set is still widely unanswered and prospective trials are lacking. With the armament of available therapeutic options and the advances and refinements in the delivery system, down-staging patients to make them eligible for curative resection has been reported. In a rapidly evolving treatment landscape, performing surgery when appropriate, in the form of LR and even LT to achieve cure does not seem farfetched. Likewise, adjuvant therapy and prompt management of the recurrences holds the key to prolong OS and DFS. This review discusses the management options of HCC patients with PVTT.

Prognostic Accuracy of the ADV Score Following Resection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Vein Tumor Thrombosis

BACKGROUND

We assessed the prognostic accuracy of ADV score (α-fetoprotein [AFP]-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]-tumor volume [TV] score) following resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT).

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study. This study included 147 patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC with PVTT. They were followed up for ≥ 66 months or until patient death.

RESULTS

The grades of PVTT were Vp1 in 121 (14.3%), Vp2 in 41 (27.9%), Vp3 in 71 (48.3%), and Vp4 in14 (9.5%) cases. Preoperative HCC treatment was performed in 48 (32.7%) patients. R0 and R1 resections were performed in 119 (81.0%) and 28 (19.0%) cases, respectively. The 5-year tumor recurrence, HCC-specific survival, and post-recurrence survival rates were 79.2%, 43.5%, and 25.4%, respectively. Neither PVTT grade nor history of preoperative HCC treatment was a significant prognostic indicator. Stratification in accordance with ADV scores of 1log- and 3log-intervals resulted in high prognostic accuracy in predicting tumor recurrence and patient survival. Following cluster analysis, the cutoff for ADV score was determined at 9log and was more prognostically significant in terms of tumor recurrence and patient survival than surgical curability or microvascular invasion. Further comparisons revealed that prognostic prediction with an ADV score cutoff at 9log was more accurate than that using the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital-PVTT score.

CONCLUSIONS

ADV score is an integrated surrogate biomarker for post-resection prognosis in HCC with PVTT. Our prognostic prediction model using ADV scores provides reliable post-resection prognosis for patients with various grades of these tumors.

Salvage living donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after hepatectomy: Quantitative prediction using ADV score

BACKGROUND

Salvage liver transplantation is a definite treatment for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy. ADV score is calculated by multiplying α-fetoprotein and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin concentrations and tumor volume. Prognostic accuracy of ADV score was assessed in patients undergoing salvage living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and their outcomes were compared with patients undergoing primary LDLT.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective, single-center, case-controlled study. Outcomes were compared in 125 patients undergoing salvage LDLT from 2007 to 2018 and in 500 propensity score-matched patients undergoing primary LDLT.

RESULTS

In patients undergoing salvage LDLT, median intervals between hepatectomy and tumor recurrence, between first HCC diagnosis and salvage LDLT, and between hepatectomy and salvage LDLT were 12.0, 37.2, and 29.3 months, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS, P = .98) and overall survival (OS, P = .44) rates did not differ significantly in patients undergoing salvage and primary LDLT. Pretransplant and explant ADV scores were significantly predictive of DFS and OS in patients undergoing salvage and primary LDLT (P < .001). DFS after prior hepatectomy (P = .52) and interval between hepatectomy and LDLT (P = .82) did not affect DFS after salvage LDLT. Milan criteria and ADV score were independently prognostic of DFS and OS following salvage LDLT, and prognosis of patients within and beyond Milan criteria could be further stratified by ADV score.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors and posttransplant outcomes were similar in patients undergoing salvage and primary LDLT. ADV score is surrogate biomarker for posttransplant prognosis in salvage and primary LDLT recipients. Prognostic model incorporating ADV scores can help determine whether to perform salvage LDLT.