Three biomarker tests to help diagnose preterm labour: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth may result in short- and long-term health problems for the child. Accurate diagnoses of preterm births could prevent unnecessary (or ensure appropriate) admissions into hospitals or transfers to specialist units.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this report is to assess the test accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the diagnostic tests PartoSure™ (Parsagen Diagnostics Inc., Boston, MA, USA), Actim^® Partus (Medix Biochemica, Espoo, Finland) and the Rapid Fetal Fibronectin (fFN)^® 10Q Cassette Kit (Hologic, Inc., Marlborough, MA, USA) at thresholds ≠50 ng/ml [quantitative fFN (qfFN)] for women presenting with signs and symptoms of preterm labour relative to fFN at 50 ng/ml.

METHODS

Systematic reviews of the published literature were conducted for diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies of PartoSure, Actim Partus and qfFN for predicting preterm birth, the clinical effectiveness following treatment decisions informed by test results and economic evaluations of the tests. A model-based economic evaluation was also conducted to extrapolate long-term outcomes from the results of the diagnostic tests. The model followed the structure of the model that informed the 2015 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines on preterm labour diagnosis and treatment, but with antenatal steroids use, as opposed to tocolysis, driving health outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty studies were identified evaluating DTA against the reference standard of delivery within 7 days and seven studies were identified evaluating DTA against the reference standard of delivery within 48 hours. Two studies assessed two of the index tests within the same population. One study demonstrated that depending on the threshold used, qfFN was more or less accurate than Actim Partus, whereas the other indicated little difference between PartoSure and Actim Partus. No study assessing qfFN and PartoSure in the same population was identified. The test accuracy results from the other included studies revealed a high level of uncertainty, primarily attributable to substantial methodological, clinical and statistical heterogeneity between studies. No study compared all three tests simultaneously. No clinical effectiveness studies evaluating any of the three biomarker tests were identified. One partial economic evaluation was identified for predicting preterm birth. It assessed the number needed to treat to prevent a respiratory distress syndrome case with a 'treat-all' strategy, relative to testing with qualitative fFN. Because of the lack of data, our de novo model involved the assumption that management of pregnant women fully adhered to the results of the tests. In the base-case analysis for a woman at 30 weeks' gestation, Actim Partus had lower health-care costs and fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than qfFN at 50 ng/ml, reducing costs at a rate of £56,030 per QALY lost compared with qfFN at 50 ng/ml. PartoSure is less costly than Actim Partus while being equally effective, but this is based on diagnostic accuracy data from a small study. Treatment with qfFN at 200 ng/ml and 500 ng/ml resulted in lower cost savings per QALY lost relative to fFN at 50 ng/ml than treatment with Actim Partus. In contrast, qfFN at 10 ng/ml increased QALYs, by 0.002, and had a cost per QALY gained of £140,267 relative to fFN at 50 ng/ml. Similar qualitative results were obtained for women presenting at different gestational ages.

CONCLUSION

There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the test accuracy and cost-effectiveness results. We are aware of four ongoing UK trials, two of which plan to enrol > 1000 participants. The results of these trials may significantly alter the findings presented here.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017072696.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Evaluation of placental alpha microglobulin-1(PAMG1) accuracy for prediction of preterm delivery in women with the symptoms of spontaneous preterm labor; a comparison with cervical length and number of contractions

Introduction: Since the capacity of tertiary centers is limited, identifying women with the risk of preterm delivery is crucial amongst women who refer to hospitals with threatened preterm labor.Objective: The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of the placental alpha microglobulin-1 (PAMG-1) test for identifying women who referred to hospitals with signs of spontaneous preterm labor and ultimately delivered within ≤48 h and ≤7 of testing and ≤37 weeks of gestation and its comparison with cervical length of <25 mm and number of contractions.Materials and methods: A prospective observational study was performed on women with the signs of spontaneous preterm labor. Placental alpha microglobulin-1 (PAMG-1) was evaluated in vaginal secretion. Cervical length (CL) and number of contractions were evaluated and recorded. The test to- spontaneous- delivery interval was documented. Sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), accuracy rate of the PAMG-1, cervical length of <25 mm and number of contractions in prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery within ≤48 h, ≤7 days and preterm delivery (≤37 weeks of gestation) were calculated.Results: One hundred eighty women finished the study. 44 women had positive PAMG-1 test and 58 women had cervical length of <25 mm. Women with a positive PAMG-1 were more likely to deliver within ≤48 h (p < .0001), ≤7 days (p < .0001), and before 37 weeks (p < .0001), compared to the women who had a negative test. For delivery within ≤48 h, ≤7 days and ≤37 weeks, specificity (SP) of the PAMG-1; was statistically higher than cervical length of <25 mm and contractions of 12-17/hr but not contractions of ≥18/hr. PAMG-1 showed a higher accuracy rate than cervical length of <25 mm, contractions of 12-17/hr and contractions of ≥18/hr for deliveries within ≤48 h (78.9, 55.3, 48.9, and 69.44%, respectively) and ≤7 days (76.1, 55.32, 55, and 65.56%, respectively). For deliveries before 37 weeks; the PAMG-1 test showed higher LR + than CL of <25 mm, contractions of 12-17/hr and contractions of ≥18/hr [10.24 (2.57-40.86), 2.01 (1.24-3.23), 1.30 (1.05-1.62), and 5.12 (1.24-21.11), respectively]. PPV for deliveries within ≤48 h and ≤7 days for PAMG-1 was greater than cervical length of <25 mm and number of contractions, however, NPV did not show a significant difference.Conclusion: PAMG-1 test showed a higher accuracy rate for prediction of delivery within ≤48 and ≤7 days in comparison with cervical length of <25 mm and number of contractions. Also, PAMG-1 test had a higher positive likelihood ratio for deliveries at ≤37 weeks. PPV for deliveries within ≤48 h and ≤7 days for PAMG-1 was greater than cervical length of <25 mm and number of contractions, however, NPV did not show a significant difference.

Placental alpha microglobulin-1 (PartoSure) test for the prediction of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the accuracy of the placental alpha microglobulin-1 (PAMG-1) to predict preterm birth (PB) in women with symptoms of PB through use of formal methods for systematic reviews and meta-analytic techniques.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search of medical bibliographic databases to identify observational studies that reported on the predictive accuracy of PAMG-1 for PB. Two investigators independently assessed studies, assessed quality of studies, and extracted data. Summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves, pooled sensitivities, specificities, likelihood ratios (LR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were generated.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies involving 2590 women met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of 15 studies (including 1906 women) revealed a pooled sensitivity of 66.2% (95% CI: 59.1, 72.7) and specificity of 96.1% (95% CI: 95.1, 97.0) with the SROC equal to 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) for prediction of delivery within 7 d of testing. The summary estimates were 15.26 (95% CI: 11.80, 19.75) for LR + and 0.31 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.55) for LR - for prediction of delivery within 7 d of testing. Pooled estimate of DOR for predicting delivery within 7 d of testing was 55.13 (95% CI: 35.32, 86.06). The sensitivity, specificity and the SROC of PAMG-1 pooled from 10 studies (including 1508 women) for prediction of delivery within 14 d of testing were 64.4% (95% CI: 56.8, 71.5), 96.9% (95% CI: 95.8, 97.7) and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98). The overall pooled LR + and LR - of PAMG-1 for predicting delivery within 14 d of testing among the included studies were 16.72 (95% CI: 12.03, 23.23) and 0.42.1 (95% CI: 0.31, 0.56), respectively. The pooled DOR of the PAMG-1 for prediction delivery within 14 d of testing was equal to 44.65 (95% CI: 26.30, 75.78).

CONCLUSION

Cervical PAMG-1 had a high accuracy to predict PB within 7 and 14 d of testing in symptomatic pregnant women.

Prediction of preterm delivery in symptomatic women using PAMG-1, fetal fibronectin and phIGFBP-1 tests: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the accuracy of placental alpha microglobulin-1 (PAMG-1), fetal fibronectin (fFN) and phosphorylated insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-1 (phIGFBP-1) tests in predicting spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) within 7 days of testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor, through a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature. The test performance of each biomarker was also assessed according to pretest probability of sPTB ≤ 7 days.

METHODS

The Cochrane, MEDLINE, PubMed and ResearchGate bibliographic databases were searched from inception until October 2017. Cohort studies that reported on the predictive accuracy of PAMG-1, fFN and phIGFBP-1 for the prediction of sPTB within 7 days of testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor were included. Summary receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were generated using indirect methods for the calculation of pooled effect sizes with a bivariate linear mixed model for the logit of sensitivity and specificity, with each diagnostic test as a covariate, as described by the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Diagnostic Test Accuracy.

RESULTS

Bivariate mixed model pooled sensitivity of PAMG-1, fFN and phIGFBP-1 for the prediction of sPTB ≤ 7 days was 76% (95% CI, 57-89%), 58% (95% CI, 47-68%) and 93% (95% CI, 88-96%), respectively; pooled specificity was 97% (95% CI, 95-98%), 84% (95% CI, 81-87%) and 76% (95% CI, 70-80%) respectively; pooled PPV was 76.3% (95% CI, 69-84%) (P < 0.05), 34.1% (95% CI, 29-39%) and 35.2% (95% CI, 31-40%), respectively; pooled NPV was 96.6% (95% CI, 94-99%), 93.3% (95% CI, 92-95%) and 98.7% (95% CI, 98-99%), respectively; pooled LR+ was 22.51 (95% CI, 15.09-33.60) (P < 0.05), 3.63 (95% CI, 2.93-4.50) and 3.80 (95% CI, 3.11-4.66), respectively; and pooled LR- was 0.24 (95% CI, 0.12-0.48) (P < 0.05), 0.50 (95% CI, 0.39-0.64) and 0.09 (95% CI, 0.05-0.16), respectively. The areas under the ROC curves for PAMG-1, fFN and phIGFBP-1 for sPTB ≤ 7 days were 0.961, 0.874 and 0.801, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In the prediction of sPTB within 7 days of testing in women with signs and symptoms of preterm labor, the PPV of PAMG-1 was significantly higher than that of phIGFBP-1 or fFN. Other diagnostic accuracy measures did not differ between the three biomarker tests. As prevalence affects the predictive performance of a diagnostic test, use of a highly specific assay for a lower-prevalence syndrome such as sPTB may optimize management. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.