Diagnostic non-invasive model of large risky esophageal varices in cirrhotic hepatitis C virus patients

Computed tomography for the diagnosis of gastroesophageal varices and risk assessment in patients with cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of computed tomography (CT) for detecting gastroesophageal varices (GEVs) and identify high-risk GEVs in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of databases identified 28 studies reporting on CT-based diagnosis for GEVs confirmed via endoscopy. Meta-analyses were conducted to calculate pooled sensitivity (SEN) and pooled specificity (SPE), positive likelihood ratio (PLR) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Based on the number of patients (or varices), the pooled SEN, SPE, PLR, NLR, DOR, and AUC of CT-based diagnosis were estimated at 0.91 (0.92), 0.81 (0.45), 4.82 (1.67), 0.11 (0.17), 42.47 (10.26), and 0.93 (0.94), respectively, for any GEV and at 0.89 (0.89), 0.90 (0.79), 8.86 (4.28), 0.12 (0.14), 75.71 (30.19), and 0.95 (0.85), respectively, for high-risk GEVs. Subgroup analyses indicated that CT had a higher diagnostic accuracy for esophageal varices compared with gastric varices (AUC: 0.93 vs. 0.89, P < 0.05), and the 64-slice CT yielded superior SEN compared with 16-slice and <16-slice CT (AUC: 0.97 vs. 0.92 and 0.82, respectively, P < 0.05). Prospective studies demonstrated higher diagnostic accuracy than retrospective studies (AUC: 0.95 vs. 0.90, P < 0.05). Regarding variceal size, a cut-off of 3 mm and 5 mm discriminated between low- and high-risk individuals, respectively, with high diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.992 vs. 0.997, P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

CT demonstrates promising diagnostic accuracy for identifying gastroesophageal varices and distinguishing high-risk GEVs in patients with cirrhosis. Further research to validate optimal variceal size cut-offs is warranted to enhance clinical utility.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Such a high diagnostic accuracy of CT scans for predicting varices is clinically meaningful for patients with cirrhosis accompanied by portal hypertension. If high-risk varices are identified at CT scans, early intervention would be helpful to reduce the risk of variceal bleeding.

Predicting the Severity of Esophageal Varices in Patients with Hepatic Cirrhosis Using Non-Invasive Markers

Background

The presence and extent of severity of esophageal varices (EV) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) are predicted using noninvasive clinical, biochemical, and imaging parameters. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of noninvasive predictors of EV, such as the platelet count-to-spleen diameter ratio (PSR), platelet count-to-spleen volume ratio (PSVR), spleen size (SZ), and a combination of these markers in determining the severity of EV in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We recruited 82 inpatients with LC from the Department of Gastroenterology at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University between January 2018 and December 2019 for this diagnostic investigation. All patients underwent endoscopy, ultrasound, computed tomography, and routine laboratory investigations. For the study, we evaluated and compared the diagnostic accuracy of PSR, PSVR, SZ, and their combinations.

Results

There were significant differences in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the prediction of severe and moderate/severe EV for all the variables. PSR+PSVR had the highest AUC at 0.735 (95% CI: 0.626-0.826) and 0.765 (95% CI: 0.659-0.852) for predicting severe and moderate/severe EV, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in the AUCs (95% CI) for PSR, PSVR, and PSR+PSVR in predicting the existence of EV. As per the overall model quality chart, the combination of PSR+PSVR was the best indicator for detecting the presence of EV (AUC, 0.696; 95% CI: 0.584-0.792).

Conclusion

In our study, we found that these noninvasive parameters could predict the extent of severity of EV in patients with LC. We anticipate the use of a combination of PSR + PSVR to emerge as the superior indicator as studies progress.

A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis

Background

There is an urgent need for non-invasive methods for predicting portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG). This study aims to develop and validate a non-invasive method based on clinical parameters for predicting PHG in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC).

Methods

The overall survival (OS) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free survival were evaluated in LC patients, both with and without PHG. A prediction model for PHG was then constructed based on a training dataset that contained data on 492 LC patients. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the predicting nomogram were assessed using the C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was conducted using a bootstrapping method, and further external validation using data on the 208 other patients.

Results

LC patients with PHG had a worse prognosis compared with those without PHG. A nomogram was constructed using clinical parameters, such as age, hemoglobin content, platelet count and Child-Pugh class. The C-index was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.730–0.816) in the training cohort, 0.761 after bootstrapping and 0.745 (95% CI: 0.673–0.817) in the validation cohort. The AUC values were 0.767, 0.724, and 0.756 in the training, validation and total cohorts, respectively. Well-fitted calibration curves were observed in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful at a threshold of 15%.

Conclusion

The nomogram constructed to predict the risk of developing PHG was found to be clinically viable. Furthermore, PHG is an independent risk factor for OS of LC, but not for the occurrence of HCC.

Clinical, Epidemiological, and Geospatial Characteristics of Patients Infected with Hepatitis C Virus Treated with Second-Generation Direct-Action Antivirals in a Reference Center in a Mesoregion of São Paulo State, Brazil

Hepatitis virus infection is a major public health problem worldwide. Currently, Brazil has almost 700,000 cases. The Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) provides therapeutic regimens for people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). We determined the clinical, laboratory, epidemiologic, and geospatial characteristics of patients infected with HCV treated with second-generation direct-action antivirals (DAAs) in a hospital reference center in São Paulo state, Brazil, using data from file records. A map was constructed using a geographic information system. From 2015 to 2018, 197 individuals received second-generation DAAs (mean age, 57.68 ± 1.36 years; interquartile range, 56.22–59.14 years; 58.9% male; 41.1% female). Genotypes 1a and 1b accounted for 75.7% of cases and the prevalent therapeutic regimen was sofosbuvir/simeprevir. Sustained viral response accounted for 98.9% and the METAVIR score F3/F4 for 50.8%. Increased alanine transferase was significantly correlated with an increase in α-fetoproteins (p = 0.01), and severe necro-inflammatory activity (p = 0.001). Associated comorbidities were found in 71.6%, mainly coronary artery and gastrointestinal disorders. The cumulative incidence in the region was 2.6 per 10,000 inhabitants. Our data highlight the role of reference hospitals in Brazil’s public health system in the treatment of HCV. Low incidence rates demonstrated the fragility of municipalities in the active search for patients.

Efficacy of CTPV for Diagnostic and Therapeutic Assessment: Comparison with Endoscopy in Cirrhotic Patients with Gastroesophageal Varices

Background and Aims

Computed tomography portal venography (CTPV) shows potential in detecting varices that need treatment and their drainage pathways. However, its agreement with endoscopy requires further study. We investigated the feasibility of CTPV as an alternative tool to endoscopy in screening gastroesophageal varices (GEVs) and developed a CTPV-based model to provide a less invasive assessment of endotherapy for cirrhotic patients with GEVs.

Methods

The study included 33 cirrhotic patients with a recent history of variceal hemorrhage. The presence, grade, and classification of GEVs on endoscopy and CTPV were compared (kappa test). Twenty-four patients were treated endoscopically, including 12 for esophageal varices (EVs), 8 for gastric varices (GVs), and 4 for GEVs. Treatment efficacies were assessed with the newly developed CTPV-based method at 1 week and 1 month after treatment. Efficiency evaluated by CTPV and endoscopy was compared by Fisher's exact test to determine whether CTPV is efficient in the assessment of endotherapy efficacy.

Results

For the screening and grading/classification of EVs and GVs, substantial agreement (EV kappa: 0.63 and 0.68; GV kappa: 0.62 and 0.75, respectively) was noted between endoscopy and CTPV. The therapeutic efficacy of EVs was higher when assessed by CTPV than when evaluated by endoscopy (37.50% vs. 12.50% at 1 week postoperation, P = 0.22; 62.50% vs. 25.00% at 1 month postoperation, P = 0.07), but without statistical significance. The same trend was also found in the assessment of therapeutic efficacy for GVs (25.00% vs. 16.67% at 1 week postoperation, P = 1; 58.33% vs. 41.67% at 1 month postoperation, P = 0.68).

Conclusion

CTPV is comparable to endoscopy in the detection of GEVs and in the evaluation of endotherapy efficacy, which suggests that it could be a less invasive alternative for endoscopy in cirrhotic patients with GEVs needing treatment.

Non-invasive assessment of large esophageal varices with liver cirrhosis ; a study conducted in Pakistan

The assessment of non-invasive parameters for the prediction of large esophageal varices among patients with liver cirrhosisis is of utmost importance. In this study, non-invasive parameters for prediction of large esophageal varices were retrospectively evaluated. The presence of esophageal varices grade III and IV was classified as large esophageal varices positive while no varices or grade I and II were classified as large esophageal varices negative. There were 473 (90.09%) patients with ascites [mild 38 (8.03%), moderate 257 (54.33%) and severe 178 (37.63%)]. Frequency of esophageal varices was found to be higher (n=415, 79.04%). Whereas, large esophageal varices were found in 251 (47.81%) patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value and test accuracy of thrombocytopenia in predicting large esophageal varices were found to be 88.05%, 59.85%, 66.77%, 84.54% and 73.33% respectively. A significant association for large esophageal varices was observed for low platelet counts (AOR : 0.98, 95% CI : 0.97-0.99), high bilirubin level (AOR : 1.22, 95% CI : 1.07-1.39), ascites (AOR : 1.98, CI : 1.02-3.85) and Child score A (AOR : 0.26, 95% CI : 0.09-0.75) and Child Score B (AOR : 0.42, 95% CI : 0.28-0.61). In conclusion, low platelet count, high bilirubin level and ascites are found to be non-invasive predictive factor for large esophageal varices. J. Med. Invest. 66 : 248-251, August, 2019.

Computed tomography vs liver stiffness measurement and magnetic resonance imaging in evaluating esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT), liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are non-invasive diagnostic methods for esophageal varices (EV) and for the prediction of high-bleeding-risk EV (HREV) in cirrhotic patients. However, the clinical use of these methods is controversial.

AIM

To evaluate the accuracy of LSM, CT, and MRI in diagnosing EV and predicting HREV in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

We performed literature searches in multiple databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, CNKI, and Wanfang databases, for articles that evaluated the accuracy of LSM, CT, and MRI as candidates for the diagnosis of EV and prediction of HREV in cirrhotic patients. Summary sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, and the areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves were analyzed. The quality of the articles was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies-2 tool. Heterogeneity was examined by Q-statistic test and I 2 index, and sources of heterogeneity were explored using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. Publication bias was evaluated using Deek's funnel plot. All statistical analyses were conducted using Stata12.0, MetaDisc1.4, and RevMan5.3.

RESULTS

Overall, 18, 17, and 7 relevant articles on the accuracy of LSM, CT, and MRI in evaluating EV and HREV were retrieved. A significant heterogeneity was observed in all analyses (P < 0.05). The areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM, CT, and MRI in diagnosing EV and predicting HREV were 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.89), 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88-0.93), and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.83-0.89), and 0.85 (95%CI: 0.81-0.88), 0.94 (95%CI: 0.91-0.96), and 0.83 (95%CI: 0.79-0.86), respectively, with sensitivities of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.78-0.89), 0.91 (95%CI: 0.87-0.94), and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.76-0.86), and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.75-0.86), 0.88 (95%CI: 0.82-0.92), and 0.80 (95%CI: 0.72-0.86), and specificities of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.60-0.80), 0.75 (95%CI: 0.68-0.82), and 0.82 (95%CI: 0.70-0.89), and 0.73 (95%CI: 0.66-0.80), 0.87 (95%CI: 0.81-0.92), and 0.72 (95%CI: 0.62-0.80), respectively. The corresponding positive likelihood ratios were 2.91, 3.67, and 4.44, and 3.04, 6.90, and2.83; the negative likelihood ratios were 0.22, 0.12, and 0.23, and 0.26, 0.14, and 0.28; the diagnostic odds ratios were 13.01, 30.98, and 19.58, and 11.93, 49.99, and 10.00. CT scanner is the source of heterogeneity. There was no significant difference in diagnostic threshold effects (P > 0.05) or publication bias (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, it is suggested that CT imaging, a non-invasive diagnostic method, is the best choice for the diagnosis of EV and prediction of HREV in cirrhotic patients compared with LSM and MRI.

Real life application of FIB-4 & APRI during mass treatment of HCV genotype 4 with directly acting anti-viral agents in Egyptian patients, an observational study

Background: Non-invasive prediction of significant liver fibrosis and gastro-esophageal varices during mass treatment for HCV is crucial.The aim is to validate the accuracy of FIB-4 & APRI for predicting significant fibrosis in chronic HCV patients during mass treatment with directly acting anti-viral agents (DAAs) & their validity for predicting varices.Methods: We did a search in a database of 21,617 patients with chronic HCV infection recruited to one of the national HCV treatment centers to find out those with fibrosis assessment by recent liver biopsies &/or liver stiffness to serve as a gold standard. The diagnostic accuracy of FIB-4 and APRI values were assessed against the gold standard. Demographics and relevant laboratory data of 3144 patients (14.5%) were retrieved.Results: Significant fibrosis (F3-F4) was detected in 1585 (50.4%). AUROCs for detecting significant fibrosis (F3-F4) were 0.76 (0.75-0.78) for FIB-4 and 0.72 (0.72-0.75) for APRI. To diagnose liver cirrhosis, AUROCs were higher; 0.82 (0.80-0.83) for FIB-4 and 0.78 (0.76-0.79) for APRI, p < 0.001. Prediction of gastro-oesophageal varices; AUROC for FIB-4 and APRI, were 0.65 and 0.62 respectively.Conclusion: FIB-4 and APRI are reliable methods in predicting cirrhosis during mass HCV treatment. Their role in predicting gastro-oesophageal varices is less remarkable.

Emerging non-invasive approaches for diagnosis and monitoring of portal hypertension

Clinically significant portal hypertension is associated with an increased risk of developing gastro-oesophageal varices and hepatic decompensation. Hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement and oesophagogastroduodenoscopy are the gold-standard methods for assessing clinically significant portal hypertension (hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mm Hg) and gastro-oesophageal varices, respectively. However, invasiveness, cost, and feasibility limit their widespread use, especially if repeated and serial evaluations are required to assess the efficacy of pharmacotherapy. Although new techniques for non-invasive portal pressure measurement have been pursued for many decades, only recently have new tools been assessed and validated for larger clinical application. This Review focuses on the recent advances in non-invasive approaches for the diagnosis and serial monitoring of portal hypertension and varices for clinical practice.