One size does not fit all: an application of stochastic modeling to estimating primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia at the sub-national level

BACKGROUND

Primary healthcare systems require adequate staffing to meet the needs of their local population. Guidelines typically use population ratio targets for healthcare workers, such as Ethiopia's goal of two health extension workers for every five thousand people. However, fixed ratios do not reflect local demographics, fertility rates, disease burden (e.g., malaria endemicity), or trends in these values. Recognizing this, we set out to estimate the clinical workload to meet the primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia by region.

METHODS

We utilize the open-source R package PACE-HRH for our analysis, which is a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model that estimates workload for a specified service package and population. Assumptions and data inputs for region-specific fertility, mortality, disease burden were drawn from literature, DHS, and WorldPop. We project workload until 2035 for seven regions and two charted cities of Ethiopia.

RESULTS

All regions and charted cities are expected to experience increased workload between 2021 and 2035 for a starting catchment of five thousand people. The expected (mean) annual clinical workload varied from 2,930 h (Addis) to 3,752 h (Gambela) and increased by 19-28% over fifteen years. This results from a decline in per capita workload (due to declines in fertility and infectious diseases), overpowered by total population growth. Pregnancy, non-communicable diseases, sick child care, and nutrition remain the largest service categories, but their priority shifts substantially in some regions by 2035. Sensitivity analysis shows that fertility assumptions have major implications for workload. We incorporate seasonality and estimate monthly variation of up to 8.9% (Somali), though most services with high variability are declining.

CONCLUSIONS

Regional variation in demographics, fertility, seasonality, and disease trends all affect the workload estimates. This results in differences in expected clinical workload, the level of uncertainty in those estimates, and relative priorities between service categories. By showing these differences, we demonstrate the inadequacy of a fixed population ratio for staffing allocation. Policy-makers and regulators need to consider these factors in designing their healthcare systems, or they risk sub-optimally allocating workforce and creating inequitable access to care.

Prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among 1-9 years of age children in Andabet district, northwest Ethiopia, 2023: A multi-level mixed-effect analysis

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is the chief cause of preventable blindness worldwide and has been earmarked for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Despite the five-year Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvement (SAFE)-based interventions in the Andabet district, the prevalence of trachomatous follicular (TF) was 37%. With such a high prevalence of TF, the determinant factors were not revealed. Besides, there were no reports on the overall prevalence of active trachoma (i.e.TF and or trachomatous intense (TI)).

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among 1-9 years of age children in the Andabet district.

METHOD

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among children aged under nine years from March 1-30, 2023 in Andabet district, Northwest Ethiopia. Multi-stage systematic random sampling was employed to reach 540 children. A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was employed to assess factors associated with active trachoma. We fitted both random effect and fixed effect analysis. Finally, variables with p<0.05 in the multivariable multilevel analysis were claimed to be significantly associated with active trachoma.

RESULT

In this study, the overall prevalence of active trachoma was 35.37% (95% CI: 31.32%, 39.41%). The prevalence of TF and TI was 31.3% and 4.07% respectively. In the multilevel logistic regression analysis ocular discharge, fly-eye contact, latrine utilization, and source of water were significantly associated with the prevalence of active trachoma.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the prevalence of active trachoma was much higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold prevalence. Ocular discharge, fly-eye contact, latrine utilization, and source of water were independent determinants of active trachoma among children (1-9 years). Therefore, paying special attention to these high-risk groups could decrease the prevalence of a neglected hyperendemic disease, active trachoma.

Status of active trachoma infection among school children who live in villages of open field defecation: a comparative cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Although many efforts are made by different stakeholders, magnitude of active trachoma remains high among children in Ethiopia. Open field defecation was found to be the main source of active trachoma. However, comparative information on the effect of open field defecation and non-open field defecation on active trachoma is scarce in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Comparative community based cross-sectional study was conducted from June 1-30, 2019 in Boricha and Dale districts to assess prevalence of active trachoma among primary school children. We have selected four primary schools purposively from two districts in Sidama. Study participants were selected by using simpe random sampling method. Data were collected through face to face interview, direct observation and ophthalmic examination. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess factors associated with active trachoma infection among primary school children. Adjusted Odds Ratios with 95% confidence interval and p-value less than 0.05 were computed to determine the level of significance.

RESULT

From the total of 746 study participants, only 701 study participants gave full response for interview questions making a response rate of 94%. The overall prevalence of active trachoma infection was 17.5% (95% CI, 14.1-20.8) among primary school students. Specifically, prevalence of active trachoma infection was 67.5% among children who lived in open field defecation villages, but it was 88.5% among school children who live in Non-ODF Kebeles. Factors like: Living in open field defecation Kebeles (AOR = 2.52, 95% CI, 1.5-4.1), having ocular discharge (AOR = 5.715, 95% CI, 3.4-9.4), having nasal discharge (AOR = 1.9, 95% CI, 1.06-3.39), and fly on the face (AOR = 6.47, 95% CI, 3.36-12.44) of children were positively associated with active trachoma infection. However, finger cleanness (AOR = 0.43, 95% CI, 0.21-0.9) was protective factor against active trachoma infection in this study.

CONCLUSION

Significant variation in prevalence of active trachoma infection among school children between open filed and non-open field defecation Kebeles was observed. Surprisingly, the prevalence in open field defecation was significantly lower than non-open field defecation. Hence, this indicates active trachoma infection highly depends on the hand hygiene than environmental sanitation. Educational campaign of hand hygiene should be enhanced in the community for school students.

Low prevalence of active trachoma and associated factors among children aged 1-9 years in rural communities of Metema District, Northwest Ethiopia: a community based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is an infectious disease of the eye caused by Chlamydia trachomatis and transmitted via contact with eye discharge from infected persons and leading to blindness worldwide. Children less than 9 years of age affected more seriously. The disease is common where access to water and sanitation are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of active trachoma and associated factors among children aged 1-9 years in rural communities of Metema District, West Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHOD

A community based cross-sectional study design was used to collect data from 792 children aged 1-9 years old in Metema district from April to May 2018. Multistage sampling technique was used to select the study participants. Pretested interviewer-administered structured questionnaire and eye examination using binocular loupe to differentiate trachoma cases was the data collection methods and tools. The bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression model was employed for analysis. P-value < 0.05 was considered to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

A total of 752 children aged l-9 years were enrolled in this study with response rate of 94.9%. The overall prevalence of active trachoma among the study participants was 11.8% (95% CI, 9.5-13.9). Unprotected source of water (AOR = 4.7; 95% CI: 2.5-8.9), lower household water consumption (AOR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.3-6.0), improper latrine utilization (AOR = 3.2; 95% CI: 1.5-6.7), and frequency of face washing once per day (AOR = 5.3; 95% CI: 1.2-26.6) were the factors significantly associated with active trachoma.

CONCLUSION

The current study revealed a lower overall prevalence of active trachoma (11.8%) than the WHO threshold prevalence (20%) used to declare it as a severe public health problem. All residents and health professional should collaborate on trachoma prevention by implementing the WHO SAFE strategy- surgery for trichiasis, antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvement for further trachoma elimination.