Randomized Trials Built on Sand: Examples from COPD, Hormone Therapy, and Cancer

Confounding biases in studies on early- versus late-caffeine in preterm infants: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Caffeine is indicated for the management of apnoea of prematurity and extubation in preterm infants. Early initiation of caffeine administration has increased in the past decades with the purpose of reducing respiratory morbidity. However, there might be harms associated with this approach. This systematic review aims to assess whether early administration of caffeine reduces morbidity and mortality in preterm infants.

METHODS

The methods were published in a preregistered protocol. The literature search was performed in February 2019 with no restrictions for language or publication date. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing early versus late caffeine administration to infants born before week 34 were included.

RESULTS

Two RCTs and 14 cohort studies were included. All studies but one had a serious/critical overall risk of bias. Few studies reported on long-term or patient-relevant outcomes. No meta-analysis could be performed.

CONCLUSION

Based on the available evidence, no conclusions about the optimal timing of caffeine administration can be drawn. There are inherent methodological problems in the cohort studies. RCTs are needed to answer the question of optimal timing for caffeine administration in neonatal care. Future trials should focus on outcomes relevant to patients and their families and include long-term outcomes.

How pharmacoepidemiology networks can manage distributed analyses to improve replicability and transparency and minimize bias

Several pharmacoepidemiology networks have been developed over the past decade that use a distributed approach, implementing the same analysis at multiple data sites, to preserve privacy and minimize data sharing. Distributed networks are efficient, by interrogating data on very large populations. The structure of these networks can also be leveraged to improve replicability, increase transparency, and reduce bias. We describe some features of distributed networks using, as examples, the Canadian Network for Observational Drug Effect Studies, the Sentinel System in the USA, and the European Research Network of Pharmacovigilance and Pharmacoepidemiology. Common protocols, analysis plans, and data models, with policies on amendments and protocol violations, are key features. These tools ensure that studies can be audited and repeated as necessary. Blinding and strict conflict of interest policies reduce the potential for bias in analyses and interpretation. These developments should improve the timeliness and accuracy of information used to support both clinical and regulatory decisions.

Inhalational supplementation of metformin butyrate: A strategy for prevention and cure of various pulmonary disorders

The management of chronic lung diseases such as cancer, asthma, COPD and pulmonary hypertension remains unsatisfactory till date, and several strategies are being tried to control the same. Metformin, a popular anti-diabetic drug has shown promising effects in pre-clinical studies and has been subject to several trials in patients with debilitating pulmonary diseases. However, the clinical evidence for the use of metformin in these conditions is disappointing. Recent observations suggest that metformin use in diabetic patients is associated with an increase in butyrate-producing bacteria in the gut microbiome. Butyrate, similar to metformin, shows beneficial effects in pathological conditions found in pulmonary diseases. Further, the pharmacokinetic data of metformin suggests that metformin is predominantly concentrated in the gut, even after absorption. Butyrate, on the other hand, has a short half-life and thus oral supplementation of butyrate and metformin is unlikely to result in high concentrations of these drugs in the lung. In this paper, we review the pre-clinical studies of metformin and butyrate pertaining to pathologies commonly encountered in chronic lung diseases and underscore the need to administer these drugs directly to the lung via the inhalational route.

Use of prescription drugs among women diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

Epithelial ovarian cancer patients often suffer from chronic diseases requiring drug treatment. We assessed temporal patterns of drug use among women with ovarian cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We identified all postmenopausal women with epithelial ovarian cancer in Denmark 2005-2012 and a comparison cohort of age-matched women without cancer. We calculated rates of new drug treatment and total drug use and examined use of new and prevalent drugs before and after diagnosis. Analyses were stratified by histological type and stage of epithelial ovarian cancer.

RESULTS

We identified 2742 patients. The rate of new drug treatment increased from 3 to 5 months before diagnosis and peaked in the first month after diagnosis at 99 new types of drug therapy per 100 individuals (mainly antiemetics, proton-pump inhibitors, hypnotics, and opioids). Although declining, the rate of new drug use remained substantially higher among epithelial ovarian cancer patients than among controls throughout the 3-year postdiagnosis follow-up period. The number of prevalent drugs increased slightly from a median of 4 drugs (interquartile range 2-7) before diagnosis to 5 drugs (interquartile range 2-8) shortly after the diagnosis. The use of preventive drugs decreased only slightly after diagnosis. In stratified analyses, we found limited variation according to histological type, whereas patterns were slightly more pronounced among women with nonlocalized disease compared with localized disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Drug use among postmenopausal women with epithelial ovarian cancer was substantial and varied considerably in relation to the time of cancer diagnosis, although only limited changes were seen in the use of preventive medicines.

The effect of anti-acid therapy on survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a methodological review of observational studies

International treatment guidelines for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) give a conditional recommendation for anti-acid therapy. As some observational studies reported discrepant findings on the effectiveness of anti-acid therapy on mortality in IPF, we reviewed all studies to evaluate whether immortal time bias explains these discrepancies.We searched the Embase and MEDLINE databases up to July 2017 for observational studies assessing the effectiveness of anti-acid therapy on mortality in IPF. Hazard ratios of mortality with anti-acid therapy were pooled across studies using random-effect models, stratified by the presence of immortal time bias.We identified 10 observational studies. Four of the five studies reporting beneficial effects of anti-acid therapy use on mortality were affected by immortal time bias (pooled hazard ratio 0.46; 95% CI 0.30-0.69), while it was unclear whether the fifth was affected. The five studies that avoided immortal time bias reported no effect of anti-acid therapy on mortality (pooled hazard ratio 0.99; 95% CI 0.81-1.22).The apparent beneficial effects of anti-acid therapy on mortality in patients with IPF result from observational studies affected by immortal time bias. Thus, the effectiveness of anti-acid therapy in IPF remains uncertain and needs to be reassessed with more accurate observational study methods and randomised trials.

Immortal time bias in pharmacoepidemiological studies on cancer patient survival: empirical illustration for beta-blocker use in four cancers with different prognosis

Immortal time bias (ITB) is still seen frequently in medical literature. However, not much is known about this bias in the field of cancer (pharmaco-)epidemiology. In context of a hypothetical beneficial beta-blocker use among cancer patients, we aimed to demonstrate the magnitude of ITB among 9876 prostate, colorectal, lung and pancreatic cancer patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2011, which were selected from a database linkage of the Netherlands Cancer Registry and the PHARMO Database Network. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals from three ITB scenarios, defining exposure at a defined point after diagnosis (model 1), at any point after diagnosis (model 2) and as multiple exposures after diagnosis (model 3), were calculated to investigate the association between beta-blockers and cancer prognosis using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results were compared to unbiased estimates derived from the Mantel-Byar model. Ignoring ITB led to substantial smaller HRs for beta-blocker use proposing a significant protective association in all cancer types [e.g. HR 0.18 (0.07-0.43) for pancreatic cancer in model 1], whereas estimates derived from the Mantel-Byar model were mainly suggesting no association [e.g. HR 1.10 (0.84-1.44)]. The magnitude of bias was consistently larger among cancer types with worse prognosis [overall median HR differences between all scenarios in model 1 and Mantel-Byar model of 0.56 (prostate), 0.72 (colorectal), 0.77 (lung) and 0.85 (pancreas)]. In conclusion, ITB led to spurious beneficial associations of beta-blocker use among cancer patients. The magnitude of ITB depends on the duration of excluded immortal time and the prognosis of each cancer.

Estrogen Plus Progestin and Lung Cancer: Follow-up of the Women's Health Initiative Randomized Trial

INTRODUCTION

In the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin trial, after 5.6 years' intervention and 8 years' median follow-up, more women died from lung cancer in the hormone therapy group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-2.52; P = .01). Now after 14 years' median follow-up, we reexamined combined hormone therapy effects on lung cancer mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the WHI placebo-controlled trial, 16,608 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years and with an intact uterus were randomly assigned to once-daily 0.625 mg conjugated equine estrogen plus 2.5 mg medroxyprogesterone acetate (n = 8506) or placebo (n = 8102). Incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer were assessed from multivariant proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

After 14 years' cumulative follow-up, there were 219 lung cancers (0.19% per year) in the estrogen plus progestin group and 184 (0.17%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.92-1.37; P = .24). While there were more deaths from lung cancer with combined hormone therapy (153 [0.13%] vs. 132 [0.12%], respectively), the difference was not statistically significant (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.38; P = .45). The statistically significant increase in deaths from lung cancer observed during intervention in women assigned to estrogen plus progestin was attenuated after discontinuation of study pills (linear trend over time, P = .042).

CONCLUSION

The increased risk of death from lung cancer observed during estrogen plus progestin use was attenuated after discontinuation of combined hormone therapy.

Inhaled Pharmacotherapy and Stroke Risk in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Nationwide Population Based Study Using Two-Stage Approach

Background and Purpose

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at higher risk of stroke than those without COPD. This study aims to explore the impact of inhaled pharmacotherapy on stroke risk in COPD patients during a three-year follow-up, using a nationwide, population-based study and a matched cohort design.

Methods

The study cohort comprised 10,413 patients who had received COPD treatment between 2004 and 2006; 41,652 randomly selected subjects comprised the comparison cohort. Cox proportional hazard regressions and two-stage propensity score calibration were performed to determine the impact of various inhaled therapies including short-acting muscarinic antagonists, long-acting muscarinic antagonists, short-acting β-agonists (SABAs), long-acting β-agonists (LABAs), and LABA plus inhaled corticosteroid (ICS), on the risk after adjustment for patient demographic characteristics and comorbid disorders.

Results

Of the 52,065 sampled patients, 2,689 (5.2%) developed stroke during follow-up, including 727 (7.0%) from the COPD cohort and 1,962 (4.7%) from the comparison cohort (p < 0.001). Treatment with SABA was associated with 1.67-fold (95% CI 1.45–1.91; p < 0.001) increased risk of stroke in COPD patients. By contrast, the cumulative incidence of stroke was significantly lower in those treated with LABA plus ICS than those treated without (adjusted hazard ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.60–0.94, p = 0.014).

Conclusions

Among COPD patients, the use of inhaled SABA is associated with an increased risk of stroke, and combination treatment with inhaled LABA and ICS relates to a risk reduction. Further prospective research is needed to verify whether LABA plus ICS confers protection against stroke in patients with COPD.

The impact of time-window bias on the assessment of the long-term effect of medication adherence: the case of secondary prevention after myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVES

Time-window bias was described in case-control studies and led to a biased estimate of drug effect. No studies have measured the impact of this bias on the assessment of the effect of medication adherence on health outcomes. Our goals were to estimate the association between adherence to drug therapies after myocardial infarction (MI) and the incidence of a new MI, and to quantify the error that would have been produced by a time-window bias.

SETTING

This is a population-based study. Data were obtained from the Regional Health Information Systems of the Lazio Region in Central Italy (around 5 million inhabitants).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients discharged after MI in 2006-2007 were enrolled in the cohort and followed through 2009.

OUTCOME MEASURE

The study outcome was reinfarction: either mortality, or hospital admission for MI, whichever occurred first.

DESIGN

A nested case-control study was performed. Controls were selected using both time-dependent and time-independent sampling. Adherence to antiplatelets, β-blockers, ACE inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs) and statins was calculated using the proportion of days covered (PDC).

RESULTS

A total of 6880 patients were enrolled in the cohort. Using time-dependent sampling, a protective effect was detected for all study drugs. Conversely, using time-independent sampling, the beneficial effect was attenuated, as in the case of antiplatelet agents and statins, or completely masked, as in the case of ACEI/ARBs and β-blockers. For ACEI/ARBs, the time-dependent approach produced ORs of 0.83 (95% CI 0.57 to 1.21) and 0.72 (0.55 to 0.95), respectively, for '0.5 < PDC ≤ 0.75' and 'PDC>0.75' versus '0 ≤ PDC ≤ 0.5'. Using the time-independent approach, the ORs were 0.96 (0.65 to 1.43) and 1.00 (0.76 to 1.33), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A time-independent definition of a time-dependent exposure introduces a bias when the length of follow-up varies with the outcome. The persistence of time-related biases in peer-reviewed papers strongly suggests the need for increased awareness of this methodological pitfall.