Comparison of risk scoring systems for critical care patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: predicting mortality and length of stay

A nomogram to predict in-hospital mortality of gastrointestinal bleeding patients in the intensive care unit

Background

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common condition in clinical practice, and predictive models for patients with GIB have been developed. However, assessments of in-hospital mortality due to GIB in the intensive care unit (ICU), especially in critically ill patients, are still lacking. This study was designed to screen out independent predictive factors affecting in-hospital mortality and thus establish a predictive model for clinical use.

Methods

This retrospective study included 1,442 patients with GIB who had been admitted to the ICU. They were selected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) 1.0 database and divided into a training group and a validation group in a ratio of 7:3. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen out independent predictors and create a nomogram.

Results

LASSO regression picked out nine independent predictors: heart rate (HR), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), acute physiology score III (APSIII), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), cerebrovascular disease, acute kidney injury (AKI), norepinephrine, vasopressin, and dopamine. Our model proved to have excellent predictive value with regard to in-hospital mortality (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.906 and 0.881 in the training and validation groups, respectively), as well as a good outcome on a decision curve analysis to assess net benefit.

Conclusion

Our model effectively predicts in-hospital mortality in patients with GIB, indicating that it may prove to be a valuable tool in future clinical practice.