Time spent in hospital after liver transplantation: Effects of primary liver disease and comorbidity

Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A in South Africa

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the consideration of introducing routine hepatitis A vaccination into national immunization schedules for children ≥ 1 years old in countries with intermediate HAV endemicity. Recent data suggest that South Africa is transitioning from high to intermediate HAV endemicity, thus it is important to consider the impact and cost of potential routine hepatitis A vaccination strategies in the country. An age-structured compartmental model of hepatitis A transmission was calibrated with available data from South Africa, incorporating direct costs of hepatitis A treatment and vaccination. We used the calibrated model to evaluate the impact and costs of several childhood hepatitis A vaccination scenarios from 2023 to 2030. We assessed how each scenario impacted the burden of hepatitis A (symptomatic hepatitis A cases and mortality) as well as calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted as compared to the South African cost-effectiveness threshold. All costs and outcomes were discounted at 5%. For the modelled scenarios, the median estimated cost of the different vaccination strategies ranged from USD 1.71 billion to USD 2.85 billion over the period of 2023 to 2030, with the cost increasing for each successive scenario and approximately 39-52% of costs being due to vaccination. Scenario 1, which represented the administration of one dose of the hepatitis A vaccine in children < 2 years old, requires approximately 5.3 million vaccine doses over 2023-2030 and is projected to avert a total of 136,042 symptomatic cases [IQR: 88,842-221,483] and 31,106 [IQR: 22,975-36,742] deaths due to hepatitis A over the period of 2023 to 2030. The model projects that Scenario 1 would avert 8741 DALYs over the period of 2023 to 2030; however, it is not cost-effective against the South African cost-effectiveness threshold with an ICER per DALY averted of USD 21,006. While Scenario 3 and 4 included the administration of more vaccine doses and averted more symptomatic cases of hepatitis A, these scenarios were absolutely dominated owing to the population being infected before vaccination through the mass campaigns at older ages. The model was highly sensitive to variation of access to liver transplant in South Africa. When increasing the access to liver transplant to 100% for the baseline and Scenario 1, the ICER for Scenario 1 becomes cost-effective against the CET (ICER = USD 2425). Given these findings, we recommend further research is conducted to understand the access to liver transplants in South Africa and better estimate the cost of liver transplant care for hepatitis A patients. The modelling presented in this paper has been used to develop a user-friendly application for vaccine policy makers to further interrogate the model outcomes and consider the costs and benefits of introducing routine hepatitis A vaccination in South Africa.

Outcomes in elderly patients undergoing hepatic resection compared to liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatic resection (HR) is an excellent option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). For patients meeting the Milan criteria, a liver transplant (LT) is also a viable option for patients with HCC, especially those with end-stage liver disease. With increasing rates of LTs amongst the elderly, we sought to determine long-term outcomes in patients who underwent HR compared to LTs in this patient population.

METHODS

We queried the national cancer database for elderly patients (≥70 years) diagnosed with HCC between 2004 and 2020. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) computed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard regression. One-to-one propensity score matching was conducted on the basis of clinicodemographic features to account for baseline differences between patients undergoing each procedure.

RESULTS

Of the 5090 patients included, 4674 (91.8%) and 416 (8.2%) patients underwent HR and LT, respectively. Compared with HR patients, patients receiving LT had better OS (p < 0.001) and greater median survival time (65.6 months HR vs. 97.9 months LT, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, a LT was independently associated with improved survival (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.61, 95% confidence interval: 0.50-0.76, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

LT is associated with improved survival for well-selected elderly patients with HCC. Age alone should not be used as the sole parameter for the candidacy of LT in elderly patients.

Mortality and Morbidity Among Adult Liver Retransplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver failure with up to 20% of patients suffering graft failure following primary transplantation. Retransplantation (ReLT) remains the only definitive treatment for irreversible graft failure.

AIMS

We aimed to explore the postoperative outcomes following liver ReLT.

METHODS

Patients who had received a liver transplant between 2003 and 2016 were retrospectively identified using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTRs). Patients were stratified based on previous liver transplant history. The primary outcomes of this study were 5-year postoperative mortality, morbidity, and length of hospital stay following LT.

RESULTS

60,554 (96%) recipients were first LT recipients and 2524 (4%) were ReLT recipients. Compared with first LT, ReLT recipients had significantly higher rates of mortality (OR 1.93, 95%CI 1.76-2.12), overall morbidity (OR 1.80, 95%CI 1.65-1.96), and prolonged length of stay (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.52-1.81) on multivariate analysis. Morbidity including cardiovascular (CVD) complications (OR 1.32, 95%CI 1.08-1.60), graft failure (OR 2.18, 95%CI 1.84-2.57), infection (OR 2.13, 95%CI 1.82-2.50), and hemorrhage (OR 2.67, 95%CI 2.00-3.61) were significantly greater in ReLT recipients. Compared to first LT, ReLT patients had a significant increase in overall 5-year mortality (p < 0.001), 5-year mortality due to CVD complications (p < 0.001), infection (p = 0.009), but not graft failure (p = 0.3543).

CONCLUSION

ReLT is associated with higher rates of 5-year mortality, overall morbidity, CVD morbidity, infection, and graft failure. Higher 5-year mortality in ReLT is due to CVD and infections. These results could be used in preoperative patient assessment and prognostic counseling for ReLT.

Toward Transplantation of Liver Organoids: From Biology and Ethics to Cost-effective Therapy

Liver disease is a common cause of morbidity and mortality, and many patients would benefit from liver transplantation. However, because of a shortage of suitable donor livers, even of those patients who are placed on the donor liver waiting list, many do not survive the waiting time for transplantation. Therefore, alternative treatments for end-stage liver disease need to be explored. Recent advances in organoid technology might serve as a solution to overcome the donor liver shortage in the future. In this overview, we highlight the potential of organoid technology for cell therapy and tissue engineering approaches. Both organoid-based approaches could be used as treatment for end-stage liver disease patients. Additionally, organoid-based cell therapy can also be used to repair liver grafts ex vivo to increase the supply of transplantable liver tissue. The potential of both approaches to become clinically available is carefully assessed, including their clinical, ethical, and economic implications. We provide insight into what aspects should be considered further to allow alternatives to donor liver transplantation to be successfully clinically implemented.

Diabetes mellitus is not associated with worse short term outcome in patients older than 65 years old post-liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is a global health care challenge and a leading indication of liver transplantation (LT). Hence, more patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) are undergoing LT, especially, above the age of 65.

AIM

To evaluate the impact of DM on short-term outcomes post-LT in patients over the age of 65.

METHODS

We collected data of patients who underwent LT from January 2001 until December 2019 using our electronic medical record. We assessed the impact of DM on short-term outcomes, one-year, post-LT based on the following variables: Survival at one year; acute cellular rejection (ACR) rates; intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay; and readmissions.

RESULTS

Total of 148 patients who are 65 year or older underwent LT during the study period. The mean age is 68.5 ± 3.3 years and 67.6% were male. The median Model for End-stage Liver Disease score at time of transplantation was 22 (6-39), 39% of patients had hepatocellular carcinoma and 77.7% underwent living donor LT. The one-year survival was similar between DM patients and others, 91%. ACR occurred in 13.5% of patients (P = 0.902). The median ICU stay is 4.5-day P = 0.023. The rates of ICU and 90-d readmission were similar (P = 0.821) and (P = 0.194), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The short-term outcome of elderly diabetic patients undergoing LT is similar to others. The presence of DM in elderly LT candidates should not discourage physicians from transplant consideration in this cohort of patients.

Life Expectancy After Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol-associated liver disease is the leading cause of liver transplantation in the western world. For these patients we calculated life expectancies both at time of transplant and several years later, stratified by key risk factors, and determined if survival has improved in recent years.

METHODS

Data on 14 962 patients with alcohol-associated liver disease who underwent liver transplantation in the MELD era (2002-2018) from the United States Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and life table methods.

RESULTS

Demographic and past medical history factors related to survival were patient age, presence of diabetes or severe hepatic encephalopathy, and length of hospital stay. Survival improved over the study period, at roughly 3% per calendar year during the first 5 years posttransplant and 1% per year thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy in transplanted patients with alcohol-associated liver disease was much reduced from normal, and varied according to age, medical risk factors, and functional status. Survival improved modestly over the study period. Information on patient longevity can be helpful in making treatment decisions.

National time trends in mortality and graft survival following liver transplantation from circulatory death or brainstem death donors

BACKGROUND

Despite high waiting list mortality rates, concern still exists on the appropriateness of using livers donated after circulatory death (DCD). We compared mortality and graft loss in recipients of livers donated after circulatory or brainstem death (DBD) across two successive time periods.

METHODS

Observational multinational data from the United Kingdom and Ireland were partitioned into two time periods (2008-2011 and 2012-2016). Cox regression methods were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the impact of periods on post-transplant mortality and graft failure.

RESULTS

A total of 1176 DCD recipients and 3749 DBD recipients were included. Three-year patient mortality rates decreased markedly from 19.6 per cent in time period 1 to 10.4 per cent in time period 2 (adjusted HR 0.43, 95 per cent c.i. 0.30 to 0.62; P < 0.001) for DCD recipients but only decreased from 12.8 to 11.3 per cent (adjusted HR 0.96, 95 per cent c.i. 0.78 to 1.19; P = 0.732) in DBD recipients (P for interaction = 0.001). No time period-specific improvements in 3-year graft failure were observed for DCD (adjusted HR 0.80, 95% c.i. 0.61 to 1.05; P = 0.116) or DBD recipients (adjusted HR 0.95, 95% c.i. 0.79 to 1.14; P = 0.607). A slight increase in retransplantation rates occurred between time period 1 and 2 in those who received a DCD liver (from 7.3 to 11.8 per cent; P = 0.042), but there was no change in those receiving a DBD liver (from 4.9 to 4.5 per cent; P = 0.365). In time period 2, no difference in mortality rates between those receiving a DCD liver and those receiving a DBD liver was observed (adjusted HR 0.78, 95% c.i. 0.56 to 1.09; P = 0.142).

CONCLUSION

Mortality rates more than halved in recipients of a DCD liver over a decade and eventually compared similarly to mortality rates in recipients of a DBD liver. Regions with high waiting list mortality may mitigate this by use of DCD livers.

The Impact of Performance Status on Length of Hospital Stay and Clinical Complications Following Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Impaired pretransplant performance status (PS) is associated with chronic liver disease (CLD). We studied its impact on hospital length of stay (LOS), complications, and readmissions in the first year after liver transplantation.

METHODS

The Standard National Liver Transplant Registry was linked to a hospital administrative dataset, and all first-time liver transplant recipients with CLD aged ≥18 years in England were identified. A modified 3-level Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score was used to assess PS. Linear- and logistic-fixed effect regression models were used to estimate the effect of specific posttransplant complications and readmissions in the first year after transplantation.

RESULTS

Six thousand nine hundred sixty-eight recipients were included. Impaired PS was associated with an increased LOS in the initial posttransplant period (comparing ECOG 1-3, adjusted difference 7.2 d; 95% confidence [CI], 4.8-9.6; P < 0.001) and in time spent on the ITU (adjusted difference 1.2 d; 95% CI, 0.4-2.0; P < 0.001). There was no significant association between ECOG status and total LOS of later admissions (adjusted difference, 2.5 d; 95% CI, -0.4-5.5; P = 0.23). Those with a poorer ECOG status had an increased incidence of renal failure (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0; P = 0.004) and infection (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4; P = 0.02) but not an increased incidence of readmission (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.9-1.5; P = 0.13).

CONCLUSIONS

In liver transplant recipients with CLD, impaired pretransplant PS is associated with prolonged LOS in the immediate posttransplant period but not with LOS of later admissions in the first year after transplantation. Impaired PS increased the risk of renal failure and infection.

500 Consecutive Liver Transplants: The Outcomes of a New Transplantation Program in the Middle West of Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation is the standard treatment for end-stage liver disease. Brazil holds the third highest number of liver transplants performed per year, but center maldistribution results in high discrepancies in accessing this treatment. In 2012, an interstate partnership successfully implemented a new liver transplantation program in the middle west of Brazil. Here, we report the results of the first 500 liver transplants performed in this new program and discuss the impacts of a new transplant center in regional transplantation dynamics.

METHODS

We reviewed data from the first 500 consecutive deceased donor liver transplants performed in the new program during an 8-year period. We analyzed data on patients' clinical and demographic profiles, postoperative outcomes, and graft and recipient survival rates. Univariate survival analysis was conducted using log-rank tests to compare the groups.

RESULTS

Almost half (48%) of the procured organs and 40% of the recipients transplanted in our center were from outside our state. Recipient 30-day mortality was 9%. Overall recipient survival at 1 year and 5 years was 85% and 80%, respectively. Mortality was significantly associated with higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (P < .001) but not with the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (P = .795).

DISCUSSION

The new transplantation program treated patients from different regions of Brazil and became the reference center in liver transplantation for the middle west region. Despite the recent implementation, our outcomes are comparable to experienced centers around the world. This model can inspire the creation of new transplantation programs aiming to democratize access to liver transplantation nationwide.

A 'real-world' analysis of risk factors for post liver transplant delirium and the effect on length of stay

BACKGROUND

The development of delirium has been previously demonstrated to be associated with an increased risk of mortality and length of stay post liver transplant (LTx) with multiple risk factors being identified in previous studies. In this study, we have aimed to identify the most important variables associated with the onset of post-LTx delirium and understand the effect on length of stay (LOS).

METHODS

All liver transplants for chronic liver disease between 1 August 2012 and 1 August 2017 were included (n = 793). Data were collected for analysis retrospectively from electronic patient records.

RESULTS

Delirium is associated with an overall increased hospital and ICU LOS but not one-year mortality. The risk of developing post-LTx delirium was the greatest among patients: with post-LTx sepsis, who required renal sparing immunosuppression, who received donation after cardiac death (DCD) grafts and who were older. Patients with autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis or primary sclerosing cholangitis seemed to be at lower risk of post-LTx delirium. However, global patient LOS was only prolonged in patients with sepsis and renal failure.

CONCLUSION

Many of the risk factors previously described to be associated with the development of post-LTx delirium were not demonstrated to be significant in this study. Sepsis, renal failure, older age and DCD use are associated with delirium post-LTx. It is unclear if this syndrome is an independent risk factor for increased LOS or if it is a symptom of well established syndromes associated with increased LOS. The role for prophylactic strategies to reduce the incidence of post-LTx delirium is therefore unclear.

Treatment at a high-volume centre is associated with improved survival among patients with non-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The association between case volume and outcomes is well-documented for several cancer types. However, it is unknown if patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated at high-volume centres have improved overall survival.

METHODS

About 135 442 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma between 2004-2014 were identified in the Commission on Cancer's National Cancer Database and 53 795 patients were excluded for metastatic or node-positive disease. Average annual case volume was calculated as the total number of cases treated per centre from 2004-2014 and dividing by 10. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed the most significant case number threshold between high-volume centres and remaining centres. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression analysis to determine factors associated with improved survival. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used for overall survival estimates.

RESULTS

A total of 81 647 patients with stage I-III hepatocellular carcinoma were treated at a total of 1218 centres. The median [range] case volume per year averaged over the 10-year study period was 48.6 [0.1-205.5]. High-volume centres treated >114 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma annually while remaining centre treated ≤114 cases. Median survival for patients treated in high-volume centres and remaining centres were 31.9 and 16.6 months respectively (Log Rank P < .001). On multivariate analysis, average annual case volume was significantly associated with improved survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Receiving treatment at a high-volume centre is significantly associated with survival for patients with non-metastatic disease. Improved survival at high-volume centres may be related to access to a variety of treatment modalities, multidisciplinary evaluation, and/or subspecialty expertise.