Temporal distribution of blood donations in three Brazilian blood centers and its repercussion on the blood supply

Application of Time-Series Analysis and Expert Judgment in Modeling and Forecasting Blood Donation Trends in Zimbabwe

Background. Blood cannot be artificially manufactured, and there is currently no substitute for human blood. The supply of blood in transfusion facilities requires constant and timely collection of blood from donors. Modeling and forecasting trends in blood collections are critical for determining both the current and future capacity requirements and appropriate models of adequate blood provision. Objectives. The objective of this study is to determine blood collection or donation patterns and develop time-series models that can be updated and refined in predicting future blood donations in Zimbabwe when given the historical data. Materials and Methods. Monthly blood donation data for the period 2009 to 2019 were collected retrospectively from the National Blood Service Zimbabwe database. Time-series models (i.e., the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average [SARIMA] and Error, Trend and Seasonal [ETS]) models were applied and compared. The models were chosen because of their ability to handle the seasonality and other time-series components evident in the blood donation data. Expert opinions and experience were used in selecting the models and in making inferences in the analysis. Results. Time-series plots of blood donations showed seasonal patterns, with significant drops in blood donations in months associated with Zimbabwe's school holidays (April, August, and December) and public holidays. During these holidays, there is a reduced number of school donors, while at about the same time, there is increasing blood demand as a result of road accidents. Model identification procedures established the SARIMA ( 1 , 1 , 2 ) ( 0 , 1 , 1 ) 12 model as the appropriate model for forecasting total blood donation in Zimbabwe. The results and forecasts show an upward trend in blood donations. According to the accuracy measures used, the SARIMA model outperforms the ETS model. Conclusions. Expert knowledge in the blood donation process, coupled with statistical models, can help explain trends exhibited in blood donation data in Zimbabwe. These findings help the blood authorities plan for blood donor campaign drives. The findings are key indicators of where to allocate more resources toward blood donation and when to collect more blood units. The increasing blood donation projections ensure a stable blood bank inventory in the near future.

Highlights

A SARIMA model can be used to predict the flow of blood donations in Zimbabwe.The seasonal blood donation pattern peaks in the months of March, June/July, and September.The donations troughs are in the months of April, August, December, and January. These are the months coinciding with school holidays in Zimbabwe.Both the SARIMA and ETS models provided similar forecasts, but measures of fit and expert knowledge gave a slight preference to the SARIMA ( 1 , 1 , 2 ) ( 0 , 1 , 1 ) 12 model in predicting the flow of blood donations in Zimbabwe.These model results are useful for guiding allocation of blood donation resources and blood donation drive timing.

Comparison of Two Methods of Capillary Sampling in Blood Pre-Donation Anemia Screening in Brazil

BACKGROUND

The laboratory tests most used by blood banks to diagnose anemia are the hemoglobin (Hb) and microhematocrit (Hct) tests, measured from capillary samples.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the two capillary screening methods for pre-donation anemia by comparing their agreement in diagnosing anemia.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study in a population of 15,521 blood donation candidates for whom information was available on Hb and Hct, performed from capillary blood samples. Hb was determined using the HemoCue^® test and Hct by the centrifugation method. The Kappa coefficient was calculated to assess the agreement between the methods. Pearson's correlation tests and gender-adjusted linear regression were used to assess the change in the response variable (Hb) as a function of the explanatory variable (Hct).

RESULTS

The majority of the study population were men (70.4%), aged between 18 and 44 years (72.1%), who declared themselves white or mixed skin color (85.6%), and had undergone at least 11 years of complete education (72.4%). The Kappa coefficient found was 92.7 and 99.2 for women and men, respectively. Pearson's correlation showed a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and the linear regression graph showed an adequate relationship between the tests with R² = 0.97.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing the Hb and Hct capillary tests, it was found that Hct can be safely used to screen for anemia in pre-blood donation.

Blood donor candidates and blood donations performed between 2005 and 2019 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: A time series analysis

Introduction

Time series studies related to blood donor candidates and blood donations are rare in Brazil. Population aging suggests a better understanding of the context related to blood donor candidates and blood donations performed.

Objective

The monthly series of candidates eligible to donate blood and actual donations between 2005 and 2019 at the Hemominas Foundation, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were described and analyzed.

Methods

Ten time series were constructed of blood donor candidates and blood donations. Each series covered the period from January 2005 to December 2019. The stationarity of the series was verified by the unit root test; the data distribution, by the Shapiro-Wilk test; the trend, by the Cox-Stuart test, and; the seasonality, by the Fisher's test (significance levels of 10% for the first test and 5% for the last three).

Results

All series were identified as non-stationary and presented trend and seasonality components. The rate of blood donor candidates and the rate of blood donations performed evidenced a positive upward trend until the last two-year analysis, when a drop occurred, from 1.75% and 1.42% in 2017 to 1.64% and 1.35% in 2019, respectively. The rate of blood donations trended downward, from 0.054% in 2005 to 0.046% in 2019. The proportion of unsuitable or unretained candidates reduced.

Conclusion

The study emphasized the need to stimulate blood donation by specific groups and increase ways to reduce the demand for blood components through the implementation of programs that expand alternatives to blood transfusions.

Effects of meteorological factors on blood donation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Blood donation can be affected by various factors including time, weather, and other events (such as disasters). To better understand how meteorological factors affect blood donation, this study builds a novel predictive model for blood supply in North Taiwan to facilitate better blood supply chain and inventory management.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study uses a two-step prediction model that combines generalized additive models (GAM) and time series models to investigate the meteorological and the day-of-the-week effects on blood donation. For the period 2010-2014, blood donation data and weather information of Big Taipei area are described and analyzed. A bootstrap method was also implemented on the residuals produced by the two-step model to construct the prediction intervals.

RESULTS

Daily average temperature and daily cumulative precipitation have non-linear effects on blood donation. By including weather information into the model, the prediction model not only can account for the fluctuation affected by the day-of-the-week effects but also the weather (e.g., temperature and rainfall) effects. The prediction intervals can be used to detect the anomaly donation patterns or to signal possible shortages when there is a forecast of an extreme weather event.

CONCLUSION

The findings underscore the need for quantitatively modeling meteorological effects in blood supply chain management, and provide important implications for the authority of a blood center to take necessary intervention and measures to reduce shortages and excessive expirations.

Blood donation and donors: insights from a large German teaching hospital (2008-2017)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The availability of blood and blood products is crucial for the provision of high-quality hospital services. We analyse changes in whole blood donations, donors and their behaviour over 9 years at a large German teaching hospital.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A descriptive analysis using data from over 34 000 donors and 265 000 donations from a large university hospital's blood centre was conducted using data from July 2008 to December 2017. The analysis focussed on (a) whole blood donations and (b) donor characteristics and how they changed over time. We categorized donors into four categories according to their donation activity (First-Time, Highly Active, Active and Reactivated).

RESULTS

We observed falling donations over time and that donors donated less frequently. Consequently, we show a downward trend in the number of Highly Active donors, whilst First-Time donors remained stable. We also provide evidence that donors donated well below their capacity and that the blood type of donors appeared to be in line with the wider German donor population. Lastly, we show a sharp drop in the return rates of First-Time donors over time.

CONCLUSION

We recommend that Highly Active donors and former Highly Active donors are more carefully considered when planning donor engagement strategies and effort made in (at the very least) maintaining their donation activity. Our results in the context of the literature highlight the need for further research into the changing attitudes towards blood donation and prosocial activities.