National survey on the impact of the war in Ukraine on TB diagnostics and treatment services in 2022

Applying geospatial multi-agent system to model various aspects of tuberculosis transmission

Introduction

The paper presents epidemiological process modeling, with a focus on tuberculosis utilizing multi-agent system.

Material and methods

This study involves the development of an algorithm that harnesses the potential of artificial intelligence to create a geospatial model that highlights the different pathways of TB transmission. The modeling process itself is characterized by a series of key stages, including initialization of the city, calibration of health parameters, simulation of the working day, propagation of the spread of infection, the evolution of disease trajectories, rigorous statistical calculations and transition to the following day. A comprehensive description of the course of active tuberculosis is presented, following the official hypothesis recommended by the World Health Organization. A comprehensive simulation, illustrating the propagation of tuberculosis in an entirely healthy environment devoid of any preventive or therapeutic measures, is presented. To ascertain the adequacy of the model and its sensitivity to the principal parameters governing the course of tuberculosis, a series of experiments were meticulously conducted, employing three distinct approximations, namely: the basic model, the model incorporating mortality factors, and the comprehensive model, encompassing all relevant aspects.

Conclusions

The model's results exhibit stability and lack of significant fluctuations. The statistical values obtained for infected, latent, and recovered individuals align well with known medical data, confirming the model's adequacy.

PASS to End TB in Europe: Accelerated efforts on prevention and systematic screening to end tuberculosis in the WHO European Region by 2030

OBJECTIVES

Outline the objectives, methods, and initial stages of the Prevention and Systematic Screening (PASS) initiative, a complimentary element of the innovative new approach of technical assistance mechanisms of WHO and its partners to countries aligned to the Regional TB Action Plan to End TB in the European Region by 2030.

DESIGN

To provide an objective and critical overview of the existing landscape on TB epidemic in the WHO European Region (the European Region) and ii) identify the strategic significance of proactive measures aimed at approaching TB pre-elimination in the Region.

RESULTS

Interventions primarily include systematic screening for TB disease and treatment for TB infection (TBI).

CONCLUSIONS

PASS to End TB is an exemplary initiative of how technical and funding partners are joining hands to support national health programmes to work towards global commitments to curb major public health challenges like TB.

Treatment outcomes and risk factors for an unsuccessful outcome among patients with highly drug-resistant tuberculosis in Ukraine

OBJECTIVES

To describe demographics, clinical features, and treatment outcomes of patients with highly drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Ukraine, and to evaluate risk factors for an unsuccessful outcome.

METHODS

Data from patients with multi-, pre-extensively, or extensively drug-resistant TB were collected prospectively from TB dispensaries in 15 out of 24 Ukrainian oblasts (regions) from 2020 to 2021. Treatment outcomes were evaluated using WHO definitions. Risk factors for an unsuccessful outcome were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Among 1748 patients, the overall proportion of successful outcomes was 58% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 56-60) (n = 1015/1748), ranging from 65% (95% CI: 62-69) (n = 531/814) for multidrug-resistant TB to 54% (95% CI: 49-58) (n = 301/563) for pre-extensively drug-resistant TB and 49% (95% CI: 44-55) (n = 183/371) for extensively drug-resistant TB. Results were similar across oblasts, with few exceptions. The strongest risk factors for an unsuccessful outcome were extensively drug-resistant TB (adjusted OR [aOR] 3.23; 95% CI: 1.88-5.53), total serum protein below 62 g/L in adults and below 57 g/L for children and adolescents (aOR 2.79; 95% CI: 1.93-4.04), psychiatric illness (aOR 2.79; 95% CI: 1.46-5.33), age at TB diagnosis >65 years (aOR 2.50; 95% CI: 1.42-4.42), and alcohol misuse (aOR 2.48; 95% CI: 1.89-3.26).

DISCUSSION

The overall proportion of successful outcomes among Ukrainians treated for highly drug-resistant TB was 58%, notably better compared with previous years, but still low for extensively drug-resistant TB. Risk factors for unsuccessful outcomes highlight that addressing socioeconomic factors in TB management is crucial. Efforts in maintaining TB dispensaries during and following the ongoing war are highly warranted.

The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Europe

Ukraine is at the forefront of one of the largest outbreaks of tuberculosis (TB) in Europe, including multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Due to the ongoing armed conflict in this area, there is a significant number of refugees from Ukraine to other European countries. The aim of the study is to emphasize the essence of the problem of the increased incidence of tuberculosis, taking into account the impact of the armed conflict in Ukraine, resulting in the intensification of migration movements. A descriptive epidemiological method was used as the research method. The material was collected by analyzing source statistical data from WHO and statistical yearbooks of selected European countries. Particularly, Ukrainian refugees in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia are at higher risk of contracting tuberculosis due to factors like migration stress, poor nutrition, and comorbidities. Epidemiological data from these countries show a rise in tuberculosis cases among foreigners, emphasizing the need for European specialists to be more vigilant in this unique situation, focusing on refugees and other vulnerable populations. More research and collaborative efforts are essential to closely monitor and prevent the severe outcomes of tuberculosis transmission.

Tuberculosis in times of war and crisis: Epidemiological trends and characteristics of patients born in Ukraine, Germany, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a large migration to other European countries, including Germany. This movement impacted the TB epidemiology, as Ukraine has a higher prevalence of TB and multidrug-resistant TB rates compared to Germany. Our descriptive analysis of TB surveillance data reveals important information to improve TB care in people displaced from Ukraine. We observed an expected increase in the number of TB patients born in Ukraine, which is, however, so far below WHO/Europe estimates.