Geographic disparities in declining rates of heart disease mortality in the southern United States, 1973-2010

Geographic Inequalities in Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: 1999 to 2018

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the trends in cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and heart failure mortality in the stroke belt in comparison with the rest of the United States.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We evaluated the nationwide mortality data of all Americans from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database from 1999 to 2018. Cause-specific deaths were identified in the stroke belt and nonstroke belt populations using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes. The relative percentage gap was estimated as the absolute difference computed relative to nonstroke belt mortality. Piecewise linear regression and age-period-cohort modeling were used to assess, respectively, the trends and to forecast mortality across the 2 regions.

RESULTS

The cardiovascular mortality rate (per 100,000 persons) was 288.3 (95% CI, 288.0 to 288.6; 3,684,273 deaths) in the stroke belt region and 251.2 (95% CI, 251.0 to 251.3; 13,296,164 deaths) in the nonstroke belt region. In the stroke belt region, age-adjusted mortality rates due to all cardiovascular causes (average annual percentage change [AAPC] in mortality rates, -2.4; 95% CI, -2.8 to -2.0), IHD (AAPC, -3.8; 95% CI, -4.2 to -3.5), and stroke (AAPC, -2.8; 95% CI, -3.4 to -2.1) declined from 1999 to 2018. A similar decline in cardiovascular (AAPC, -2.5; 95% CI, -3.0 to -2.0), IHD (AAPC, -4.0; 95% CI, -4.3 to -3.7), and stroke (AAPC, -2.9; 95% CI, -3.2 to -2.2) mortality was seen in the nonstroke belt region. There was no overall change in heart failure mortality in both regions (P_AAPC>.05). The cardiovascular mortality gap was 11.8% in 1999 and 15.9% in 2018, with a modest reduction in absolute mortality rate difference (~7 deaths per 100,000 persons). These patterns were consistent across subgroups of age, sex, race, and urbanization status. An estimated 101,953 additional cardiovascular deaths need to be prevented from 2020 to 2025 in the stroke belt to ameliorate the gap between the 2 regions.

CONCLUSION

Despite the overall decline, substantial geographic disparities in cardiovascular mortality persist. Novel approaches are needed to attenuate the long-standing geographic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality in the United States, which are projected to increase.

Geographic Variation in Racial Disparities in Health and Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) Mortality

Objective

To evaluate the race-stratified state-level prevalence of health determinants and the racial disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cumulative incidence and mortality in the United States.

Patients and Methods

The age-adjusted race-stratified prevalence of comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and obesity), preexisting medical conditions (pulmonary disease, heart disease, stroke, kidney disease, and malignant neoplasm), poor health behaviors (smoking, alcohol abuse, and physical inactivity), and adverse socioeconomic factors (education, household income, and health insurance) was computed in 435,139 American adult participants from the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Correlation was assessed between health determinants and the race-stratified COVID-19 crude mortality rate and infection-fatality ratio computed from respective state public health departments in 47 states.

Results

Blacks had a higher prevalence of comorbidities (63.3%; 95% CI, 62.4% to 64.2% vs 55.1%; 95% CI, 54.7% to 55.5%) and adverse socioeconomic factors (47.0%; 95% CI, 46.0% to 47.9% vs 30.9%; 95% CI, 30.6% to 31.3%) than did whites. The prevalence of preexisting medical conditions was similar in blacks (30.4%; 95% CI, 28.8% to 32.1%) and whites (30.8%; 95% CI, 30.2% to 31.4%). The prevalence of poor health behaviors was higher in whites (57.2%; 95% CI, 56.3% to 58.0%) than in blacks (50.2%; 95% CI,46.2% to 54.2%). Comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic factors were highest in the southern region, and poor health behaviors were highest in the western region. The cumulative incidence rate (per 100,000 persons) was 3-fold higher in blacks (1546.4) than in whites (540.4). The crude mortality rate (per 100,000 persons) was 2-fold higher in blacks (83.2) than in whites (33.2). However, the infection-fatality ratio (per 100 cases) was similar in whites (6.2) and blacks (5.4). Within racial groups, the geographic distribution of health determinants did not correlate with the state-level COVID-19 mortality and infection-fatality ratio (P>.05 for all).

Conclusion

Racial disparities in COVID-19 are largely driven by the higher cumulative incidence of infection in blacks. There is a discordance between the geographic dispersion of COVID-19 mortality and the regional distribution of health determinants.

POISSON COKRIGING AS A GENERALIZED LINEAR MIXED MODEL

It is often of interest to predict spatially correlated count outcomes that follow a Poisson distribution. For example, in the environmental sciences we may want to predict pollen counts using temperature or precipitation data as auxiliary variables. To predict a Poisson outcome variable in the presence of an auxiliary variable, Poisson cokriging as a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) is proposed. This model has a bivariate structure with a Poisson outcome variable and an auxiliary variable. A covariance matrix similar to that used in cokriging is assumed. A simulation study and a real data example using the number of microplastics in the digestive tracts of fish are presented. The results showed that Poisson cokriging methodology can be applied successfully in practice with small average errors and coverage close to 95%. The Poisson cokriging model can be a useful tool for spatial prediction.

Identification of Resilient and At-Risk Neighborhoods for Cardiovascular Disease Among Black Residents: the Morehouse-Emory Cardiovascular (MECA) Center for Health Equity Study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the growing interest in place as a determinant of health, areas that promote rather than reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) in blacks are understudied. We performed an ecologic analysis to identify areas with high levels of CVD resilience and risk among blacks from a large southern, US metropolitan area.

METHODS

We obtained census tract-level rates of cardiovascular deaths, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalizations for black adults aged 35 to 64 from 2010 through 2014 for the Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan area. Census tracts with substantially lower rates of cardiovascular events on the basis of neighborhood socioeconomic status were identified as resilient and those with higher rates were identified as at risk. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of being classified as an at-risk versus resilient tract for differences in census-derived measures.

RESULTS

We identified 106 resilient and 121 at-risk census tracts, which differed in the rates per 5,000 person years of cardiovascular outcomes (mortality, 8.13 vs 13.81; ED visits, 32.25 vs 146.3; hospitalizations, 26.69 vs 130.0), despite similarities in their median black income ($46,123 vs $45,306). Tracts with a higher percentage of residents aged 65 or older (odds ratio [OR], 2.29; 95% CI, 1.41-3.85 per 5% increment) and those with incomes less than 200% of the federal poverty level (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02-1.39 per 5% increment) and greater Gini index (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.19- 2.07 per 0.05 increment) were more likely to be classified as at risk than resilient neighborhoods.

DISCUSSION

Despite matching on median income level, at-risk neighborhoods for CVD among black populations were associated with a higher prevalence of socioeconomic indicators of inequality than resilient neighborhoods.

Changing rate orders of race-gender heart disease death rates: An exploration of county-level race-gender disparities

A holistic view of racial and gender disparities that simultaneously compares multiple groups can suggest associated underlying contextual factors. Therefore, to more comprehensively understand temporal changes in combined racial and gender disparities, we examine variations in the orders of county-level race-gender specific heart disease death rates by age group from 1973-2015. We estimated county-level heart disease death rates by race, gender, and age group (35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥ 85, and ≥ 35) from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics from 1973-2015. We then ordered these rates from lowest to highest for each county and year. The predominant national rate order (i.e., white women (WW) < black women (BW) < white men (WM) < black men (BM)) was most common in younger age groups. Inverted rates for black women and white men (WW Collapse

Key Words

• BM, black men
• BW, black women
• CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• County-level
• Gender
• Heart disease mortality
• ICD, International Classification of Diseases
• MCMC, Markov chain Monte Carlo
• NCHS, National Center for Health Statistics
• Race
• Spatiotemporal
• Temporal trends
• WM, white men
• WW, white women

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Grants

• K01 HD074726 NICHD NIH HHS

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Affiliation(s)

Adam S. Vaughan Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy NE, Atlanta, GA 30341, United States
Harrison Quick Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Nesbitt Hall, 3215 Market St., Philadelphia, PA 19104, United States
Linda Schieb Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy NE, Atlanta, GA 30341, United States
Michael R. Kramer Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, United States
Herman A. Taylor Cardiovascular Research Institute, Morehouse School of Medicine, 720 Westview Drive, Atlanta, GA 30310, United States
Michele Casper Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy NE, Atlanta, GA 30341, United States

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State-level minimum wage and heart disease death rates in the United States, 1980-2015: A novel application of marginal structural modeling

Despite substantial declines since the 1960's, heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States (US) and geographic disparities in heart disease mortality have grown. State-level socioeconomic factors might be important contributors to geographic differences in heart disease mortality. This study examined the association between state-level minimum wage increases above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates from 1980 to 2015 among 'working age' individuals aged 35-64 years in the US. Annual, inflation-adjusted state and federal minimum wage data were extracted from legal databases and annual state-level heart disease death rates were obtained from CDC Wonder. Although most minimum wage and health studies to date use conventional regression models, we employed marginal structural models to account for possible time-varying confounding. Quasi-experimental, marginal structural models accounting for state, year, and state × year fixed effects estimated the association between increases in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates. In models of 'working age' adults (35-64 years old), a $1 increase in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage was on average associated with ~6 fewer heart disease deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: -10.4, -1.99), or a state-level heart disease death rate that was 3.5% lower per year. In contrast, for older adults (65+ years old) a $1 increase was on average associated with a 1.1% lower state-level heart disease death rate per year (b = -28.9 per 100,000, 95% CI: -71.1, 13.3). State-level economic policies are important targets for population health research.

Disparities in chronic medical conditions in the Mid-South

OBJECTIVE

This study examined differences in socio-demographic characteristics and health behaviors relevant to chronic medical conditions (CMCs) in the Mid-South region (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas), and identified subpopulations with increased burden of chronic disease.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. The top five most prevalent CMCs in the Mid-South were analyzed: asthma, high blood pressure (HBP), obesity, arthritis, and depression. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and confidence intervals (CI) of race-gender combinations were estimated using logistic regression. Differences in associations between socio-demographic characteristics and CMCs according to income were also examined.

RESULTS

The weighted prevalence estimates of the top five CMCs ranged from 66% (asthma) to 20% (depression). Higher income and employment were associated with better outcomes in all five CMCs. Higher educational attainment and physical activity were associated with better HBP, obesity, and arthritis status. Black and white females had higher odds of asthma compared to white males (black AOR = 1.7, CI: 1.1-2.6, white AOR = 1.7, CI: 1.3-2.2). Black males had lower odds of arthritis (AOR = 0.8, CI: 0.6-0.9), while white females had higher odds (AOR = 1.3, CI: 1.2-1.4). Similarly, the odds of depression were lower among black males (AOR = 0.5, CI: 0.4-0.6) and higher among white females (AOR = 2.2, CI: 2.0-2.5). Income-related differences by race were observed for HBP and obesity.

CONCLUSION

Disparities in CMCs are associated with income and disproportionately affect the black population. In the Mid-South, race and gender disparities in the top five chronic conditions are more prominent among higher-income rather than lower-income individuals.

Sociodemographic Patterns of Chronic Disease: How the Mid-South Region Compares to the Rest of the Country

INTRODUCTION

States in the Mid-South region are among the least healthy in the nation. This descriptive study examines sociodemographic differences in the distribution of chronic diseases and health-related behaviors in the Mid-South versus the rest of the U.S., identifying subgroups at increased risk of chronic disease.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; analyses were completed in January 2016. Twelve chronic health conditions were assessed: obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, chronic kidney disease, cancer, arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and depression. Evaluated health-related behaviors included smoking, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption. Age-standardized percentages were reported using complex survey design parameters to enhance generalizability.

RESULTS

The Mid-South population had increased rates of chronic disease and worse health-related behaviors than the rest of the U.S.

POPULATION

Mid-South blacks had the highest percentages of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, and stroke of all subgroups, along with lower physical activity and fruit and vegetable consumption. In both races and regions, individuals with lower income and education had higher rates of chronic disease and unhealthy behaviors than those with higher income and education. However, black men in both regions had higher obesity and cancer rates in the higher education category. In general, education-level disparities were more pronounced in health-related behaviors, whereas income-level disparities were more pronounced in chronic health conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Future studies should test tailored interventions to address the specific needs of population subgroups in order to improve their health.

Changes in the Geographic Patterns of Heart Disease Mortality in the United States: 1973 to 2010

BACKGROUND

Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties.

CONCLUSIONS

The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality.

Widening Geographical Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States, 1969-2011

OBJECTIVES

This study examined trends in geographical disparities in cardiovascular-disease (CVD) mortality in the United States between 1969 and 2011.

METHODS

National vital statistics data and the National Longitudinal Mortality Study were used to estimate regional, state, and county-level disparities in CVD mortality over time. Log-linear, weighted least squares, and Cox regression were used to analyze mortality trends and differentials.

RESULTS

During 1969-2011, CVD mortality rates declined fastest in New England and Mid-Atlantic regions and slowest in the Southeast and Southwestern regions. In 1969, the mortality rate was 9% higher in the Southeast than in New England, but the differential increased to 48% in 2011. In 2011, Southeastern states, Mississippi and Alabama, had the highest CVD mortality rates, nearly twice the rates for Minnesota and Hawaii. Controlling for individual-level covariates reduced state differentials. State- and county-level differentials in CVD mortality rates widened over time as geographical disparity in CVD mortality increased by 50% between 1969 and 2011. Area deprivation, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes prevalence, urbanization, lack of health insurance, and lower access to primary medical care were all significant predictors of county-level CVD mortality rates and accounted for 52.7% of the county variance.

CONCLUSIONS AND GLOBAL HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

Although CVD mortality has declined for all geographical areas in the United States, geographical disparity has widened over time as certain regions and states, particularly those in the South, have lagged behind in mortality reduction. Geographical disparities in CVD mortality reflect inequalities in socioeconomic conditions and behavioral risk factors. With the global CVD burden on the rise, monitoring geographical disparities, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, could indicate the extent to which reductions in CVD mortality are achievable and may help identify effective policy strategies for CVD prevention and control.