Dual Use of Cigarettes and JUUL: Trajectory and Cigarette Consumption

Trends in Daily Cigarette Consumption Among Smokers: A Population Study in England, 2008-2023

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to estimate time trends in cigarette consumption among smokers in England between 2008 and 2023 and to explore differences by key potential moderators.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used data from 57 778 adult cigarette smokers participating in a nationally representative monthly cross-sectional survey between January 2008 and September 2023. We estimated monthly time trends in mean daily consumption of (1) any, (2) manufactured, and (3) hand-rolled cigarettes among all smokers and by main type of cigarettes smoked, smoking frequency, age, gender, occupational social grade, region, nicotine replacement therapy use, and vaping status.

RESULTS

Overall cigarette consumption fell from 13.6 [95% CI = 13.3 to 13.9] to 10.6 [10.5 to 10.8] per day between January 2008 and October 2019 (a 22% decrease), then remained stable up to September 2023. Over this period, the proportion mainly or exclusively smoking hand-rolled cigarettes increased (from 30.6% [29.1%-32.1%] in 2008 to 52.1% [49.7%-54.5%] in 2023). As a result, manufactured cigarette consumption fell by 47%, from 9.5 [9.2-9.8] per day in January 2008 to 5.0 [4.7-5.3] in September 2023, while hand-rolled cigarette consumption increased by 35%, from 4.2 [3.9-4.4] to 5.6 [5.3-5.9], respectively. The decline in overall cigarette consumption was observed across all subgroups, but was greater among non-daily smokers, younger smokers, and those who vaped.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last 15 years, the average number of cigarettes consumed each day by smokers in England has fallen by almost a quarter, but has plateaued since October 2019. There has been a sharp decline in the number of manufactured cigarettes consumed and an increase in the number of hand-rolled cigarettes consumed, as smokers have increasingly shifted towards using hand-rolled tobacco.

IMPLICATIONS

While average cigarette consumption in England has fallen over the past 15 years, this declining trend has stalled (and reversed in some population groups) since 2019. The availability of cheap, hand-rolled tobacco appears to be undermining policies that aim to reduce smoking by raising the price of tobacco (eg, through taxation) and could be targeted to reignite the decline in cigarette consumption.

Adult smokers' Complete Switching Away from Cigarettes at 6, 9, and 12 Months after Initially Purchasing a JUUL e-Cigarette

Background: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) have the potential to benefit public health if smokers completely switch from cigarettes to ENDS. Methods: A cohort of adult smokers (age ≥ 21) who purchased a JUUL Starter Kit was followed for 12 months after the initial purchase. We defined "switching" as past-30-day abstinence from smoking (even if JUUL use had stopped), and analyzed factors associated with achievement and maintenance of self-reported repeated point-prevalence switching (RPPS) at three follow-ups, i.e., no past-30-day smoking at months 6, 9, and 12. Results: RPPS was reported by 21.6% of the 12,537 evaluable smokers. Smokers with lighter smoking history and lower cigarette dependence at baseline were more likely to report RPPS. RPPS was also associated with daily use of JUUL (Month-3: OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 2.02-2.68; Month-6: OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.42-2.10), and with greater subjective reinforcing effects from JUUL use (assessed by the mCEQ, Month-3: OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.38-1.56; Month-6: OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.02-1.20). Even among smokers who did not meet the criteria of RPPS (i.e., who smoked at least once), 35.5% reported past 30-day point-prevalence switching on at least one follow-up, and their cigarette consumption was substantially reduced compared to baseline. Conclusions: Approximately one-fifth of adult smokers reported 30-day point-prevalence abstinence at 6, 9, and 12 months after purchasing JUUL. Greater use of JUUL and stronger subjective reinforcing effects were associated with nonsmoking, validating the potential for ENDS to substitute for smoking, with potential for positive impacts on individual and population health.

Association of electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) and cigarette solo and dual use with alcohol-related consequences among US adults

INTRODUCTION

Research reports a robust association between combustible cigarette use and alcohol use frequency and severity. Extension to the emerging landscape of electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use is needed to inform prevention and treatment strategies.

METHOD

We evaluated data from the 2020 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Respondents included adults reporting cigarettes or ENDS solo or dual use. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated associations with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and alcohol-related risky behavior (i.e., heavy drinking, binge alcohol use, and driving after drinking) compared to never use controls and respondents with a history, but not current, use of cigarettes or ENDS.

RESULTS

Multivariable models showed greater odds of AUD for respondents with dual ENDS and cigarette use (AOR = 10.2), ENDS use (AOR = 6.27), cigarette use (AOR = 4.45), and a history, but not ongoing, use (AOR = 2.60) relative to respondents with no use history. Similarly, respondents with dual use (AOR = 3.94), ENDS use (AOR = 2.41), and cigarette use (AOR = 1.71) had greater odds of AUD relative to those with a history of, but not ongoing, use. The association between dual use and AUD was greater for adults ages 21-25 (AOR = 16.2) than for adults over 25 (AOR = 7.82). Cigarette and ENDS solo and dual-use were similarly associated with greater odds of alcohol-related risky behavior relative to control groups.

CONCLUSION

These findings demonstrate that nicotine use and dual use may be associated with indicators of problematic drinking. These results offer insight into emerging licit polysubstance profiles and call for mechanistic research to inform prevention and intervention efforts.

Comparative risk perceptions of switching to JUUL vs. continued smoking and subsequent switching away from cigarettes: a longitudinal observational study

BACKGROUND

Evidence indicates that electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) pose lower risk than cigarettes; however, many smokers harbor misperceptions that ENDS are equally or more harmful, possibly deterring them from switching. This study examines whether comparative risk perceptions of JUUL vs. smoking are associated with subsequent switching, among smokers who recently purchased JUUL.

METHODS

N = 16,996 current established smokers who recently purchased a JUUL Starter Kit were followed 6 times over 12 months. Comparative risk perceptions were assessed using both direct and indirect measures (i.e., contrasting JUUL and smoking directly in questions, and deriving from separate absolute scales). Repeated-measures logistic regression examined switching across follow-up (no smoking in past 30 days) as a function of baseline risk perceptions, adjusting for demographics and baseline smoking behavior.

RESULTS

Perceiving JUUL as less harmful than smoking was associated with higher switching rates, using both direct (e.g., adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.48 for "JUUL much less" vs. "more/much more harmful") and indirect (AOR = 1.07, for each 10-unit increase in fraction; AOR = 1.51 for highest (6-100) vs. lowest (0 to < 1) fraction categories) comparative risk measures (all p < 0.0001). Among the subset smoking 10 + cigarettes per day, associations between risk perceptions and switching were more pronounced (AOR = 2.51 for "JUUL much less" vs. "more/much more harmful"; AOR = 1.81 for 6-100 vs. 0 to < 1 fraction, both p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Smokers who perceive JUUL as less harmful than cigarettes have higher odds of switching. Future research should examine whether messaging which aligns comparative risk perceptions with current evidence can facilitate switching, especially among heavier smokers.

Switching away from smoking at 12 months among adult JUUL users varying in recent history of quit attempts made with and without smoking cessation medication

Some smokers switch away from smoking using e-cigarettes, but guidelines recommend trying approved medications first. We analyzed switching in adult smokers using JUUL by their recent history of quit attempts and use of smoking cessation medications. Participants were 8511 adult (21+) established smokers (at baseline), in which 50.3% are daily smokers, in a longitudinal observational study who completed a survey 12 months after first purchasing a JUUL Starter Kit. At baseline, participants reported attempts to quit smoking in the prior year and use of pharmacotherapy (nicotine replacement therapy [NRT] or prescription medication) in their most recent attempt. The outcomes were switching (self-reported no past-30-day smoking) and 50%+ reductions in cigarette consumption. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for baseline covariates. Two thirds of the participants had made a quit attempt in the year before purchasing JUUL. Overall, 59% [58%, 60%] had switched at 12 months. Switching was more likely in those who had used NRT and who attempted quitting without medication versus those who used prescription medications or made no quit attempt. In adjusted multivariable analyses, only making a past-year quit attempt (vs. not) was associated with higher odds of switching (OR = 1.15 [1.04, 1.28]). Over 60% of dual users reduced cigarette consumption by ≥50%. These associations were largely similar in daily smokers. Twelve months after purchasing JUUL, almost all smokers reported either switching or reducing their smoking by 50%+, including those who had recently failed to quit smoking with approved pharmacotherapies. E-cigarettes provide an alternative route to abstinence from smoking for smokers with a history of cessation and cessation treatment failure.

Comparison of biomarkers of exposure among US adult smokers, users of electronic nicotine delivery systems, dual users and nonusers, 2018-2019

The harm caused by cigarette smoking is overwhelmingly due to byproducts of tobacco combustion. Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) provide nicotine to users without combustion, and may support tobacco harm reduction among cigarette smokers who would not otherwise quit in the near term. Analyses of Wave 5 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study compared biomarkers of exposure (BOE) levels for nicotine, 3 metals, 2 tobacco-specific nitrosamines and 14 smoking-related volatile organic compounds in 151 exclusive ENDS users, 1341 exclusive cigarette smokers, 115 dual users (cigarettes and ENDS), and 1846 past 30-day nonusers of tobacco, adjusting for demographics. Nicotine exposure in ENDS users and dual users did not significantly differ from smokers. Among ENDS users, 16 of 18 other BOEs were significantly lower than smokers'; 9 BOEs were not significantly different from nonusers. Among dual users smoking < 10 cigarettes/day, 15 of 18 non-nicotine BOEs were significantly lower than smokers', whereas in dual users smoking ≥ 10 cigarettes per day none of the BOEs significantly differed from smokers'. In this representative sample of US adults, exclusive use of ENDS (vs. cigarette smoking) was associated with much lower exposures to many harmful chemicals associated with smoking-related disease. BOE levels in dual users were directly related to their cigarette consumption. These BOE data provide further evidence that ENDS expose users to substantially lower levels of toxicants than combustible cigarettes, confirming their potential for harm reduction.

Time-varying association between cigarette and ENDS use on incident hypertension among US adults: a prospective longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) products have emerged as the most popular alternative to combustible cigarettes. However, ENDS products contain potentially dangerous toxicants and chemical compounds, and little is known about their health effects. The aim of the present study was to examine the prospective association between cigarette and ENDS use on self-reported incident hypertension.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Nationally representative sample of the civilian, non-institutionalised population in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

17 539 adults aged 18 or older who participated at follow-up and had no self-reported heart condition or previous diagnosis of hypertension or high cholesterol at baseline.

MEASURES

We constructed a time-varying tobacco exposure, lagged by one wave, defined as no use, exclusive established use (every day or some days) of ENDS or cigarettes, and dual use. We controlled for demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity and household income), clinical risk factors (family history of heart attack, obesity, diabetes and binge drinking) and smoking history (cigarette pack-years).

OUTCOMES

Self-reported incident hypertension diagnosis.

RESULTS

The self-reported incidence of hypertension was 3.7% between wave 2 and wave 5. At baseline, 18.0% (n=5570) of respondents exclusively smoked cigarettes; 1.1% (n=336) exclusively used ENDS; and 1.7% (n=570) were dual users. In adjusted models, exclusive cigarette use was associated with an increased risk of self-reported incident hypertension compared with non-use (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.38), while exclusive ENDS use (aHR 1.00, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.47) and dual use (aHR 1.15, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.52) were not.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that smoking increased the risk of self-reported hypertension, but ENDS use did not. These results highlight the importance of using prospective longitudinal data to examine the health effects of ENDS use.

A critique of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council CEO statement on electronic cigarettes

This paper critically analyses a statement by Australia's National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) on e-cigarettes in May 2022 that will be used to guide national policy. We reviewed the evidence and the conclusions drawn in the NHMRC Statement. In our view, the Statement is not a balanced reflection of the benefits and risks of vaping because it exaggerates the risks of vaping and fails to compare them to the far greater risks of smoking; it uncritically accepts evidence of harms from e-cigarettes while adopting a highly sceptical attitude towards evidence of their benefits; it incorrectly claims that the association between adolescent vaping and subsequent smoking is causal; and it understates the evidence of the benefits of e-cigarettes in assisting smokers to quit. The Statement dismisses the evidence that vaping is probably already having a positive net public health effect and misapplies the precautionary principle. Several sources of evidence supporting our assessment were published after the NHMRC Statement's publication and are also referenced. The NHMRC Statement on e-cigarettes does not present a balanced assessment of the available scientific literature and fails to meet the standard expected of a leading national scientific body.

Sales of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Cigarette Sales in the USA: A Trend Break Analysis

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are a potentially lower-risk tobacco product which could help smokers switch completely away from cigarettes. However, the lack of strong evidence to date of a measurable, population-level effect on reducing smoking has generated skepticism about ENDS' potential benefits. This study examines whether increased US ENDS sales have been associated with reduced cigarette sales. Retail data on weekly per-capita cigarette and ENDS purchases in the USA during 2014-2019 were obtained from a national sample of brick-and-mortar retail outlets. Trends in cigarette sales were modeled before (2014-2016) ENDS had a substantial market share, and, after adjusting for macroeconomic factors, projected into the post-period (2017-2019). Actual cigarette sales were lower than projected sales (by up to 16% across the post-period), indicating a substantial "cigarette shortfall" in the post-period. To explore whether general (i.e., inclusive of potentially many mechanisms) substitution by ENDS can explain the cigarette shortfall, its association with per-capita ENDS volume sales was examined. Higher ENDS sales were significantly associated with a greater cigarette shortfall: for every additional per-capita ENDS unit, cigarette sales were 1.4 packs-per-capita lower than expected (B = 1.4, p < .0001). Error correction models which account for spurious correlation yielded similar results. These findings support ENDS serving as a substitute for cigarettes (through potentially many mechanisms including cigarette price), causing cigarette consumption to decline. Since ENDS potentially pose lower risk than cigarettes, this general substitution effect suggests that risk-proportionate tobacco regulation could mitigate the tobacco-related health burden.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10603-022-09533-4.

Changes in Dependence Over One Year among US Adults Who Smoke Cigarettes and Switched Completely or Partially to Use of the JUUL-Brand Electronic Nicotine Delivery System

Background

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) are substitute sources of nicotine for adults who smoke cigarettes. Understanding changes in dependence as people switch from cigarettes to ENDS is relevant to public health. This study assessed changes in dependence among adults who switched completely or partially (dual users) from cigarettes to JUUL-brand ENDS over 12 months.

Methods

US adults who smoke and purchased a JUUL Starter Kit (n = 17,619) completed a baseline assessment and were invited to 1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month follow-ups. Dependence on cigarettes at baseline and on JUUL at follow-ups was assessed with the Tobacco Dependence Index (TDI; Range 1-5). Analyses estimated the minimal important difference (MID) for the scale, compared JUUL dependence to baseline cigarette dependence and assessed changes in JUUL dependence over 1-year, including among those using JUUL at all follow-ups.

Results

Participants who switched at month 2 had month 1 JUUL TDI scores 0.24 points greater than those who continued smoking (p<0.001); thus MID=0.24. Among both switchers and dual users overall, dependence on JUUL 1 and 12 months later was lower than baseline dependence on cigarettes (ps<0.001); participants who smoked every day showed more consistent and larger reductions. Among participants who persistently used JUUL without smoking, dependence increased 0.01 points per month (p<0.001), but was leveling off over time.

Conclusions

Dependence on JUUL was lower than baseline cigarette dependence. Increases in JUUL dependence were small over 12 months of continual JUUL use. These data indicate that ENDS, including JUUL, have lower dependence potential than cigarettes.

A Close Look at Vaping in Adolescents and Young Adults in the United States

Vaping by adolescents and young adults is a legitimate concern as there is a risk that some may start smoking and that electronic cigarette (EC) use may have adverse effects in the developing lungs of adolescents. This commentary provides updated information on vaping patterns among adolescents and young adults in the United States, as well as the impact of EC usage on respiratory health. EC use has surged greatly among high school students and young adults over the last decade but fortunately has declined significantly since its peak in 2019. During the same time period, smoking rates have constantly fallen to new low record levels. These trends argue against EC use as a gateway to smoking. Most EC usage is infrequent and unlikely to increase a person's risk of negative health consequences. Furthermore, the majority of EC usage has happened among those who have previously smoked. There is a dearth of data on the long-term health implications of EC usage in adolescents and young adults. We do not know whether short-term or intermittent use of EC in youth can lead to negative health outcomes in adulthood, and long-term high-quality studies in well-defined groups are needed. Although vaping has been linked to respiratory symptoms, they tend to be transient and of uncertain significance. This commentary provides up-to-date information so health care providers can give objective and responsible medical advice on EC usage.

Health impact of e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current and emerging evidence

INTRODUCTION

Quitting is the only proven method to attenuate the progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, most COPD smokers do not seem to respond to smoking cessation interventions and may benefit by lessening the negative health effects of long-term cigarette smoke exposure by switching to non-combustible nicotine delivery alternatives, such as heated tobacco products (HTPs) and e-cigarettes (ECs).

AREAS COVERED

Compared with conventional cigarettes, HTPs and ECs offer substantial reduction in exposure to toxic chemicals and have the potential to reduce harm from cigarette smoke when used as tobacco cigarette substitutes. In this review, we examine the available clinical studies and population surveys on the respiratory health effects of ECs and HTPs in COPD patients.

EXPERT OPINION

The current research on the impact of ECs and HTPs on COPD patients' health is limited, and more high-quality studies are needed to draw definitive conclusions. However, this review provides a comprehensive overview of the available literature for health professionals looking to advise COPD patients on the use of these products. While ECs and HTPs may offer some benefits in reducing harm from cigarette smoke, their long-term effects on COPD patients' health are still unclear.

Population-level counterfactual trend modelling to examine the relationship between smoking prevalence and e-cigarette use among US adults

BACKGROUND

Studies have suggested that some US adult smokers are switching away from smoking to e-cigarette use. Nationally representative data may reflect such changes in smoking by assessing trends in cigarette and e-cigarette prevalence. The objective of this study is to assess whether and how much smoking prevalence differs from expectations since the introduction of e-cigarettes.

METHODS

Annual estimates of smoking and e-cigarette use in US adults varying in age, race/ethnicity, and sex were derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Regression models were fitted to smoking prevalence trends before e-cigarettes became widely available (1999-2009) and trends were extrapolated to 2019 (counterfactual model). Smoking prevalence discrepancies, defined as the difference between projected and actual smoking prevalence from 2010 to 2019, were calculated, to evaluate whether actual smoking prevalence differed from those expected from counterfactual projections. The correlation between smoking discrepancies and e-cigarette use prevalence was investigated.

RESULTS

Actual overall smoking prevalence from 2010 to 2019 was significantly lower than counterfactual predictions. The discrepancy was significantly larger as e-cigarette use prevalence increased. In subgroup analyses, discrepancies in smoking prevalence were more pronounced for cohorts with greater e-cigarette use prevalence, namely adults ages 18-34, adult males, and non-Hispanic White adults.

CONCLUSION

Population-level data suggest that smoking prevalence has dropped faster than expected, in ways correlated with increased e-cigarette use. This population movement has potential public health implications.

Changes in Biomarkers of Cigarette Smoke Exposure After 6 Days of Switching Exclusively or Partially to Use of the JUUL System with Two Nicotine Concentrations: A Randomized Controlled Confinement Study in Adult Smokers

Introduction

Evidence suggests that cigarette smokers who switch to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) reduce their exposure to harmful toxicants and carcinogens. It is unclear if dual-use is associated with decreases in exposure to toxicants.

Methods

This parallel-group confinement study assessed changes in biomarkers of exposure (BOEs) over six days among healthy adult smokers who were randomized into 1 of 11 study groups: eight JUUL-brand System (JUUL) groups (4 JUUL flavors [Virginia Tobacco, Menthol, Mint, Mango] × 2 nicotine concentrations [5.0% or 3.0% by weight]); Dual-Use group used preferred JUUL flavor (5.0% nicotine) and ≤50% usual brand (UB) cigarettes/day; UB Cigarette group and one group abstained from all tobacco/nicotine product use (Abstinence group). Urine and blood analysis assessed changes in primary BOE endpoints (NNAL, 3-HPMA, MHBMA, S-PMA COHb) and secondary BOE endpoints (NNN, HMPMA, CEMA, 1-OHP, O-toluidine, 2-NA, 4-ABP) among 279 adult smokers.

Results

In JUUL groups, median percent reductions in primary BOEs (Day 6–Baseline) were 90%–≥100% of Abstinence; there were no significant differences between JUUL groups and Abstinence. All reductions in JUUL groups were substantially and statistically significantly greater than reductions in the UB Cigarette group (ps < 0.025). Median reductions in primary BOEs in the Dual-Use group were 43%–55% of Abstinence. Similar results were observed for secondary BOEs.

Conclusion

This study suggests that the use of JUUL as a complete or partial substitute (i.e., dual-use with ≥50% reduction in cigarette consumption) for combustible cigarettes can substantially reduce exposure to multiple toxins associated with cigarette smoking.

Implications

This study adds to the growing body of evidence supporting the utility of ENDS products as potentially reduced-harm alternatives to cigarettes for adult smokers. Adult smokers who switched completely from cigarette smoking to use of the JUUL System (“JUUL”) in two nicotine concentrations (5.0% and 3.0%) and four flavors significantly reduced their exposure to multiple classes of cigarette-related toxicants. Additionally, smokers who used JUUL and continued smoking but reduced their daily cigarette consumption by ≥50% (dual users) also significantly reduced their toxicant exposure compared to cigarette smoking.