Conditional Survival of Patients With Nonmetastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: How Cancer-Specific Mortality Changes After Nephrectomy

Geographic Distribution of Racial Differences in Renal Cell Carcinoma Mortality

OBJECTIVE

To examine the geographic variations in Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) -specific death disparities from competing causes among Hispanic, non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Asian/Pacific Islander RCC patients. RCC outcomes in specific racial/ethnic population warrants further research and it is unknown whether racial/ethnic differences in RCC survival vary geographically within the US.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess all RCC patients from 2014 to 2021. Data was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The primary outcome was RCC-related mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 85,975 patients with RCC from 16 geographic areas within the SEER database. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that Hispanic patients had the worst survival outcome (P < .001 by log rank test). In the multivariable competing-risks regression, Hispanics had a higher risk of cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29, 95% CI, 1.20-1.38, P ˂ .001) compared with non-Hispanic Whites. The increase in the risk of RCC-related death with Hispanic race/ethnicity was consistent across all major subgroups stratified by the covariables. In stratified analyses of geographic regions, there were 3 areas in which Hispanics had worse RCC-specific survival (Los Angeles: HR 1.22, 95% CI, 1.06-1.41, P = .005; Greater California: HR 1.125, 95% CI, 1.15-1.37, P < .001; Atlanta, Georgia: HR 1.95, 95% CI, 1.32-2.88, P = .001).

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that population-level variations in RCC survival among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites were associated with a small number of geographic regions. Targeted interventions in these regions may be conducive to alleviating RCC care differences at the national level.

Machine Learning-Based Real-Time Survival Prediction for Gastric Neuroendocrine Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a dynamic survival prediction model utilizing conditional survival (CS) analysis and machine learning techniques for gastric neuroendocrine carcinomas (GNECs).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2015) were analyzed and split into training and validation groups (7:3 ratio). CS profiles for patients with GNEC were examined in the full cohort. We utilized random survival forests (RSFs) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, alongside stepwise Cox regression, for variable selection. A CS-based nomogram was developed on the basis of key prognostic factors, followed by risk stratification and model validation.

RESULTS

We included 654 patients with GNEC in our study, with 457 assigned to the training set and 197 to the validation set. The CS analysis demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year CS improved from 48% immediately after diagnosis to 68%, 81%, 88%, and 94% after surviving an additional year (i.e., at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, respectively). Through the use of RSFs and LASSO regression, combined with multivariable regression analysis, we identified the optimal combination of prognostic factors, which included age, tumor grade, tumor stage, surgery, and chemotherapy. Utilizing these prognostic indicators, we successfully developed a nomogram model that incorporated CS and effectively stratified these patients by risk. Subsequent performance analyses further validated the superior efficacy of the nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the value of CS in GNEC prognosis. The nomogram offers dynamic, individualized survival predictions, supporting personalized treatment strategies.

Conditional survival of male breast cancer

BACKGROUND

The incidence of male breast cancer has been increasing in recent years; however, the long-term survival outcomes of diagnosed patients remain uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the conditional survival of male breast cancer patients and to predict the future survival of patients through the conditional nomogram, to provide important suggestions for clinical decision-making.

METHODS

Retrospective data from the SEER database included 3600 male breast cancer patients, divided into training and validation groups (7 : 3 ratio). Overall survival rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Conditional survival analysis described survival at specific years. Time-dependent multivariate Cox analysis identified prognostic factors' impact. The conditional survival nomogram model predicted real-time survival rates.

RESULTS

Over time, the 5-year real-time survival rate of patients gradually improved, increasing from 70.5 to 74.8, 79.4, 85.8, and 92.9% (respectively, representing 5-year survival rates of 1-4 years after diagnosis). In addition, the improvement in conditional survival rate CS5 showed a nonlinear trend. After 5 years of diagnosis, age, tumor size, and tumor stage had a sustained impact on patient prognosis. Finally, a conditional survival nomogram was constructed to predict the 10-year survival rate in real time.

CONCLUSION

Five years after diagnosis, the conditional survival rate of male patients with breast cancer has improved, but it is not nonlinear. In the first 5 years after diagnosis, patients with older age, larger tumor size, poorer tumor stage, and distant metastasis should be actively followed up and treated to improve their long-term survival.

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in surgically treated nonmetastatic primary urethral carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We examined the effect of disease-free interval (DFI) duration on cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival, otherwise known as the effect of conditional survival, in radical urethrectomy nonmetastatic primary urethral carcinoma (PUC) patients.

METHODS

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database 2000-2020, patient (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and marital status) and tumor (stage and histology) characteristics, as well as systemic therapy exposure status of nonmetastatic PUC patients were tabulated. Conditional survival estimates at 5-year were assessed based on DFI duration and according to stage at presentation (T1 -2N0 vs. T3-4N0-2).

RESULTS

Of all 512 radical urethrectomy PUC patients, 278 (54%) harbored T1-2N0 stage versus 234 (46%) harbored T3-4N0-2 stage. In 512 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 61.8%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 85.6%. In 278 T1-2N0 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 68.4%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 86.9%. In 234 T3-4N0-2 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 53.8%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 83.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Although intuitively, clinicians and patients are well aware of the concept that increasing DFI duration improves survival probability, only a few clinicians can accurately estimate the magnitude of survival improvement, as was done within the current study. Such information is crucial to survivors, especially in those diagnosed with rare malignancies, where the survival estimation according to DFI duration is even more challenging.

Simplified cardiovascular index may be the best comorbidity index for clinical use in prediction of mortality for renal cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

Understanding the relationship between comorbidities and life expectancy is important in cancer patients who carry risks of cancer and noncancer-related mortality. Comorbidity indices (CI) are tools to provide an objective measure of competing risks of death. We sought to determine which CI might be best incorporated into clinical practice for patients with suspected renal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

1572 patients diagnosed with renal masses (stage I-IV) between 1998 and 2016 were analyzed for this study. Patient data were gathered from a community-based health center. Comorbidities were evaluated individually, and with 1 of 4 CI: Charlson (CCI), updated CCI (uCCI), age-adjusted CCI (aCCI), and simplified cardiovascular index (CVI). Cox-proportional hazard analysis of all-cause mortality was performed using the four CI, adjusting for the 4 CI, adjusting for age, gender, race, tumor size, and tumor stage.

RESULTS

Univariable analyses revealed the four CI were significant predictors of mortality (P < 0.05), as were age, gender, tumor size, and stage. Comorbid conditions at diagnosis included hypertension (47.8%), diabetes mellitus (47.2%), coronary artery disease (41.1%), chronic kidney disease (31.8%), peripheral vascular disease (8.0%), congestive heart failure (5.7%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (5.7%), and cerebrovascular disease (2.0%). When analyzing the 4 CI in multivariable survival analyses accounting for factors available at diagnosis, and analyses incorporating pathologic and recurrence data, only CVI score and uCCI remained statistically significant (P < 0.05). Limitations of this work are the retrospective nature of data collection and data from a single institution, limiting the generalizability.

CONCLUSION

Increasing comorbidity, age, tumor size, and cM stage are predictors of ACM for suspected renal cancer patients. CVI appears to provide comparable information to various iterations of CCI (uCCI, aCCI) while being the simplest to use. Utilization of CVI may assist clinicians and patients when considering between interventional and noninterventional approaches for suspected renal cancer.

Conditional survival of patients with low-risk prostate cancer: Temporal changes in active surveillance permanence over time

PURPOSE

To determine risk categories for patients with prostate cancer (PCa) in active surveillance (AS) and to test the conditional survival (CS) that examined the effect of event-free survival since AS-entrance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From January 2012 to December 2020 we analyzed 606 patients with PCa enrolled in our AS program. Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots depicted AS-exit rate. Multivariable Cox regression models (MCRMs) tested for AS-exit rate independent predictors to determine risk categories. CS estimates were used to calculate overall AS-exit rate after event-free survival intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 5 years, and after stratification according to risk categories.

RESULTS

At MCRMs PSAd ≥ 0.15 (HR: 1.43; P-value 0.04), PI-RADS 4-5 (HR: 2.56; P-value <0.001) and number of biopsy positive cores ≥ 2 (HR: 1.75; P-value <0.001) were independent predictors of AS-exit. These variables were used to determine risk categories: low-, intermediate- and high-risk. Overall, according to CS-analyses, 5-year AS-exit free rate increased from 59.7% at baseline, to 67.3%, 74.7%, and 89.4% in patients who remained in AS respectively ≥1, ≥2, ≥3 and ≥5 years. After stratification according to risk categories, in those patients who remained in AS ≥ 5 years, 5-year AS-exit free rates increased from 76.3% to 100% in patients with a low-risk, from 62.7% to 83.7% in patients with an intermediate-risk and from 42.3% to 87.5% in patients with a high-risk.

CONCLUSIONS

CS models showed a direct relationship between event-free survival duration and subsequent AS permanence in overall PCa patients and after stratification according to risk categories.

Conditional Cancer-Specific Survival for Inflammatory Breast Cancer: Analysis of SEER, 2010 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Conditional survival takes into account the time that has elapsed since diagnosis and may have additional informative value. Compared with the static traditional survival evaluation method, conditional survival predictions can be adapted to incorporate the dynamic changes during the disease and provide a more suitable way of identifying time-evolved prognoses.

METHODS

Of 3333 patients diagnosed with inflammatory breast cancer between 2010 and 2016 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trend of the hazard rate over time was represented by the kernel density smoothing curve. The traditional cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional CSS assessment was defined as the probability that a patient will survive y years given the x years who already survived after diagnosis, and the formula is as follows: CS(y)=CSS(x + y)/CSS(x). 3-year cancer-specific survival (CSS3) and 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CS3) were estimated. The Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard model was constructed to screen for time-dependent risk factors associated with cancer-specific death. Subsequently, a nomogram was applied to predict a 5-year survival rate based on the number of years already survived.

RESULTS

Of 3333 patients, the cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate decreased from 57% in the 4th year to 49% in the 6th year, while the comparable 3-year CS (CS3) rate improved from 65% in the first year to 76% in the third year. Overall, the CS3 rate was superior to actuarial cancer-specific survival, which was also found in subgroup analysis, especially in patients with high-risk characteristics. The Fine-Gray's model indicated that remote organ metastasis (M stage), lymph node metastasis (N stage), and surgery all significantly impacted the prognosis for cancer-specific survival. The Fine-Gray's model-based nomogram was constructed to predict 5-year cancer-specific survival immediately after diagnosis and given survival for 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

High-risk patients had a significantly improved cancer-specific survival prognosis after surviving for 1 or more years after diagnosis with inflammatory breast cancer. The probability of reaching 5-year cancer-specific survival following diagnosis improves with each additional year survived. More effective follow-up is required for patients diagnosed at an advanced N stage, remote organ metastasis, or not received surgery. Additionally, a nomogram and web-based calculator may be helpful for patients with inflammatory breast cancer during follow-up counseling (https://ibccondsurv.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/).

Prognosis and conditional nomogram of cervical spine fracture in patients with severe spinal cord injury: a multicenter retrospective study

INTRODUCTION

Cervical spine fractures with severe spinal cord injury (SCI) are common following cervical spine trauma and are associated with a high mortality rate. Understanding the mortality patterns of patients with cervical spine fractures and severe SCI can offer valuable evidence to surgeons and family members who are required to make critical healthcare decisions. The authors aimed to evaluate the instantaneous death risk and conditional survival (CS) of such patients and developed conditional nomograms to account for different periods of survivors and predict the survival rates.

METHODS

Their instantaneous death risks were calculated using the hazard function, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the survival rates. Cox regression was used to choose the variables for the construction of the nomograms. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration plots were used to validate the performance of the nomograms.

RESULTS

The authors finally included 450 patients with cervical spine fractures and severe SCI using propensity score matching. The instantaneous death risk was the highest during the first 12 months after injury. Surgical treatment can help decrease the instantaneous death risk quickly, especially in early-term surgery. The 5-year CS increased constantly from 73.3% at baseline to 88.0% after 2 years of survival. Conditional nomograms were constructed at baseline and in those who survived for 6 and 12 months. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curves indicated that the nomograms had a good performance.

CONCLUSION

Their results improve our understanding of the instantaneous death risk of patients in different periods following injury. CS demonstrated the exact survival rate among medium-term and long-term survivors. Conditional nomograms are suitable for different survival periods in predicting the probability of survival. Conditional nomograms help in understanding the prognosis and improve the shared decision-making approaches.

Conditional survival for non-metastatic muscle-invasive adenocarcinoma of the urinary bladder after radical cystectomy

PURPOSE

To test the effect of conditional survival on 36-months' cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival in non-metastatic muscle-invasive adenocarcinoma of the bladder (ACB).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2000-2018), ACB patients treated with radical cystectomy (RC) were identified. Multivariable competing risks regression (CRR) analyses assessed the independent predictor status of organ-confined (OC, T₂N₀M₀) vs non-organ-confined stage (NOC, T_3-4N₀M₀ or T_anyN_1-3M₀) on CSM. Conditional 36-months' CSM-free survival estimates were computed based on event-free intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months after RC, according to stage.

RESULTS

Of 475 ACB patients, 132 (28%) harbored OC vs 343 (72%) harbored NOC stage. In multivariable CRR models, NOC vs OC stage independently predicted lower CSM (hazard ratio 3.55; 95% CI 2.66, 5.83; p < 0.001). Conversely, neither chemotherapy nor radiotherapy were independently associated with CSM. In OC stage, 36-months' CSM-free survival rate was 84% at baseline. Provided event-free intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months, conditional 36-months' CSM-free survival estimates were 84, 87, 87, 89 and 89%. In NOC stage, 36-months' CSM-free survival rate was 47% at baseline. Provided event-free intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months, conditional 36-months' CSM-free survival estimates were 51, 62, 69, 78 and 85%.

CONCLUSIONS

Conditional survival estimates provide better insight into survival of patients with longer event-free follow-up. In consequence, conditional survival estimates might be highly valuable for individual patient counselling.

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in surgically treated adrenocortical carcinoma patients: A stage-specific analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

We examined the effect of disease-free interval (DFI) duration on cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival, otherwise known as the effect of conditional survival, in surgically treated adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) patients.

METHODS

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004-2018), 867 ACC patients treated with adrenalectomy were identified. Conditional survival estimates at 5-years were assessed based on DFI duration and according to stage at presentation. Separate Cox regression models were fitted at baseline and according to DFI.

RESULTS

Overall, 406 (47%), 285 (33%), and 176 (20%) patients were stage I-II, III and IV, respectively. In conditional survival analysis, providing a DFI of 24 months, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis increased from 66% to 80% in stage I-II, from 35% to 66% in stage III, and from 14% to 36% in stage IV. In multivariable Cox regression models, stage III (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.38; p < 0.001) and IV (HR: 4.67; p < 0.001) independently predicted higher CSM, relative to stage I-II. The magnitude of this effect decreased over time, providing increasing DFI duration.

CONCLUSIONS

In surgically treated ACC, survival probabilities increase with longer DFI duration. This improvement is more pronounced in stage III, followed by stages IV and I-II patients, in that order. Survival estimates accounting for DFI may prove valuable in patients counseling.

Adjuvant Therapy for Renal Cell Carcinoma: End Points, Outcomes, and Risk Assessments

PURPOSE

Targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) revolutionized the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Efforts to translate these therapies into the adjuvant setting for local and locoregional RCC have been pursued over the past decade. We sought to provide an updated review of the literature regarding adjuvant therapy in RCC, as well as an analysis of patient characteristics that may portend the most favorable responses.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using PubMed, Google Scholar, and Wiley Online Library, we reviewed articles between 2000 and 2022. Search terms included "tyrosine kinase inhibitors," "adjuvant," "immunotherapy," and "renal cell carcinoma." The articles included were original and published in English. Information on clinical trials was collected from ClinicalTrials.gov, accessed in June 2022.

RESULTS

Landmark trials investigating adjuvant vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitors produced conflicting results, with only a single trial of sunitinib (S-TRAC) resulting in US Food and Drug Administration-approval on the basis of a slightly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS). Subsequent meta-analyses failed to show a benefit for adjuvant VEGF inhibitors. Several trials evaluating ICIs are currently ongoing, with pembrolizumab (KEYNOTE-564) earning US Food and Drug Administration-approval for a prolonged PFS, although overall survival data are not yet mature. Preliminary results from other adjuvant ICI trials have been conflicting.

CONCLUSION

There remains a lack of clear benefit for the use of adjuvant VEGF inhibitors in local and locoregional RCC. Adjuvant ICI investigations are ongoing, with promising results from KEYNOTE-564. It remains to be seen if PFS is an adequate surrogate end point for overall survival. Selection of patients at greatest risk for recurrence, and identification of those at greatest risk of rare but serious adverse events, may improve outcomes.

Psychological Distress in Patients Treated for Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Literature Review

(1) Background: The incidence of psychological distress and its impact on renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients is unclear. Our aim was to analyze the literature regarding the prevalence of psychological distress and its impact on patients with non-metastatic or metastatic RCC; (2) Methods: A systematic search of five databases was performed. Studies were considered eligible if they included patients with RCC, had a prospective or retrospective design, and assessed anxiety, depression, or psychological distress at any time during treatment or follow-up. Exclusion criteria: no treatment for RCC, or not providing data for RCC patients; (3) Results: A total of 15 studies were included. Reported psychological distress was up to 77% and the prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms were up to 77.6% and 68.3% in patients with non-metastatic RCC. There was no association of depression with overall survival (OS) in patients with non-metastatic RCC treated by radical nephrectomy; on the contrary, in patients with metastatic disease, depression had an impact on OS. Limitations are related to the quality of the included studies; (4) Conclusions: Patients with RCC reported a high level of psychological distress like other cancer patients. It seems that for patients with localized disease, psychological distress does not impact OS, while it does in those with metastatic disease.

Conditional survival of metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma: How prognosis evolves after cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor

Introduction

Cytoreductive surgery is one of the recommended treatments for metastatic renal cell carcinoma, while the prognostic information of these patients treated with cytoreductive surgery is limited. In this study, we aimed to investigate the survival profiles based on conditional survival (CS) estimates in metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC) patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor.

Methods and materials

We identified and extracted mccRCC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We used Kaplan–Meier method to perform CS analyses. A multivariate Cox regression model was applied to explore the changes of well‐known prognostic factors.

Results

Conditional overall survival (COS) and conditional cancer‐specific survival (CCSS) improved increasingly at all periods of survivorships compared to survival estimates at baseline in overall population of mccRCC. The 36‐month COS improved by 3.3%–6.4% given per 12 additional months of survivorships and the CCSS improved significantly from 45.1% (95% CI 42.8–47.3) at 12 months to 67.1% (95% CI 62.0–71.7) at 60 months. Much more survival gain was observed in patients with advanced disease. Furthermore, the prognostic significance of age and pathological factors diminished and even disappeared in a long‐term survivorship.

Conclusions

Conditional overall survival and CCSS improved with time dynamically in mccRCC patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor. Patients with advanced disease achieved significant survival gain and even could harvest a better prognosis given that the time of survivorship exceeds a certain period. Our findings could provide valuable and practical data for patient counseling and surveillance strategy making.

Assessment of predictors of renal cell carcinoma progression after nephrectomy at short and intermediate term follow-up and implication on surveillance protocols

BACKGROUND

Prediction of risk of RCC progression after surgery is important for follow-up planning. We identified predictors of progression-free survival (PFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in a large single institutional cohort and investigated patterns and sites of progression according to stage and grade.

METHODS

Node-negative non-metastatic clear-cell RCC (ccRCC) patients treated with radical or partial nephrectomy from 2000 to 2020 were included. Sites of progression were defined as thoracic, abdominal and others (bone/brain). Kaplan Meier curves and multivariable Cox regression (MCR) models tested for PFS and CSS.

RESULTS

Of 384 clear cell RCC N0M0 patients, 301 (78.4%) vs. 83 (21.6%) were pT1-2 vs. pT3-4, respectively; 253 (65.9%) vs. 130 (33.9%) were G1-G2 vs. G3-G4. Thoracic progressions occurred in 2.7% pT1-T2 vs. 21.7% pT3-T4 and 2.8% G1-G2 vs. 14.6% G3-G4 tumors. Abdominal progressions occurred in 4.0% pT1-T2 vs. 13.3% pT3-T4 and 4.3% G1-G2 vs. 9.2% G3-G4. Other progressions occurred in 0.3% pT1-T2 vs. 9.6% pT3-T4 and 0.8% G1-G2 vs. 5.4% G3-G4 (5.4%). Five-year PFS and CSS were 81.7 and 90.6%, respectively. At MCR models, pT3-4 (HR 9.1, p<0.001), G3-G4 (HR 2.7, p=0.003) and PSMs (HR 6.1, p<0.001) independently predicted PFS. Similarly, pT3-4 (HR 10.1, p<0.001), G3-G4 (HR 4.1, p=0.02), and PSMs (HR 5.2, p=0.04) independently predicted CSS.

CONCLUSIONS

In ccRCC N0M0 patients, G3-G4, pT3-4, PSMs were independent predictors of progression after surgery. Lower stage and grade ccRCCs progress predominantly in the abdominal sites and may be followed with less frequent extra-abdominal imaging compared to more advanced/aggressive tumors.

Stage-dependent conditional survival and failure hazard of non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiation therapy: Clinical implications for treatment strategies and surveillance

Purpose

Conditional survival (CS) and failure hazard estimations can provide important dynamic prognostic information for clinical decision‐making and surveillance counseling. The current study aimed to investigate the CS and dynamic failure hazard in non‐metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

Methods

Conditional overall survival (COS) and progression‐free survival (CPFS) estimates adjusted for age and gender against each AJCC 8th stage were calculated. Multivariable Cox regression (MCR) models were fitted in the entire population at baseline and subsequently separate MCR models were fitted in patients who have maintained event‐free time of 1 to 10 years to generate respective hazard ratio (HR). Annual hazard rates of death and progression over 10 years for each stage were also estimated.

Results

A total of 1993 patients were eligible for analysis. The estimated 5‐year OS and PFS for entire cohort were 79.0% and 70.7% at initial diagnosis. After 5 years of event‐free follow‐up, additional 5‐year COS and CPFS increased to 85.9% and 85.5%, respectively. Stage I/II maintained dramatically favorable CS and low hazard (< 5%) of death and progression over time. Relative to stage I/II, stage III manifested non‐significantly higher failure hazard for the first 3 years of survivorship and approached to similar level of stage I/II afterwards. Stage IVA presented most impressive improvement in terms of both COS (∆=9.8%) and CPFS (∆ = 16.8%) whereas still drastically inferior to that of stage I‐III across all conditional time points. After 4 years of follow‐up, progression hazard of stage IVA became relatively steady of approximate 6%.

Conclusions

Survival prospect of non‐metastatic NPC improves over years with distinct dynamic patterns across stages, providing important implications for personalized decision‐making in terms of both clinical management and surveillance counseling. Stage‐dependent and hazard‐adapted clinical management and surveillance are warranted.

Long-term survival trend after primary total laryngectomy for patients with locally advanced laryngeal carcinoma

Purpose: To evaluate long-term survival trends after primary total laryngectomy (TL) for locally advanced laryngeal carcinoma (LC). Methods: A total of 2094 patients diagnosed with locally advanced LC and underwent primary TL (1992-2011, at least 5-year follow-up) in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. Besides the traditional overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) by using Kaplan-Meier curves, the 3-year conditional survival analysis was also performed to describe the long-term trends in these patients. Time-dependent multivariate competing-risk models were constructed to assess the persistent sub-distribution hazard of prognostic factors. Finally, a nomogram was developed to predict conditional cancer-specific survival. Results: The curves of overall hazard and cancer-specific hazard both quickly reached the apex within the first year since TL, then decreased thereafter. In general, the CS3 steadily increased from within 5 years after TL. In the stratified CS3 analysis, the increments in patients with adverse characteristics were more pronounced. 4 years after TL, the probability of surviving the next year exceeded 90%. The time-dependent multivariate competing-risk models indicated that age and lymph node ratio (LNR) persistently contributed to the cancer-specific outcome. The nomogram based on the competing-risk model was constructed to estimate CSS probability conditional upon 3 years for advanced LC patients having survived 1, 2, and 3 years. Conclusion: Most patients achieved a substantially improved survival rate after surviving a long period after primary TL. Patients diagnosed at older age and with higher LNR should receive more effective follow-up. The predictive nomogram can provide significant evidence for clinical research and practice.

Conditional survival after surgery for patients with penile cancer

BACKGROUND

Penile cancer represents a rare pathology whose natural history of treatment is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To illustrate the dynamic survival profiles in surgically treated patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis (SCCP) using the conditional survival (CS) estimates.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with non-metastatic SCCP were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Conditional 3-yr overall survival (OS) rate and 3-yr cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate represented the primary outcomes of interest and were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The multivariable Cox regression model was employed to calculate proportional hazard ratios for the prediction of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1887 SCCP patients who had undergone surgeries were identified. Given a 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-yr survivorship, the 3-yr OS rates were, respectively, improved by + 9.8 (72.6%), +18.2 (78.1%), +23.4 (81.6%), +27.8 (84.5%), and + 26.6% (83.7%) from those calculated at baseline (time zero). As compared with the baseline calculations, patients who had survived 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 yr after surgery could, respectively, harvest a + 7.8 (84.7%), +14.8 (90.2%), +19.5 (93.9%), +22.1 (96.0%), and + 22.4% (96.2%) improvement in 3-yr CSS. Patients with the most aggressive disease at baseline ultimately benefited the most from event-free survivorship. Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that the impact of adverse pathological parameters (G2-3, ≥ pT2, pN+) on OS and CSS mostly showed a decreasing trend over time and some could disappear after a minimum of 1-yr survivorship.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The survival probability of SCCP patients increases with post-operative survival. Patients with aggressive disease at baseline ultimately benefit the most from event-free survivorship and may expect a better prognosis once they survive the critical few years after surgery. The recorded observations have crucial implications regarding patient counseling and follow-up.