Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Qatar’s experience

Estimating protection afforded by prior infection in preventing reinfection: applying the test-negative study design

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to use infection testing databases to rapidly estimate effectiveness of prior infection in preventing reinfection ($P{E}_S$) by novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Mathematical modeling was used to demonstrate a theoretical foundation for applicability of the test-negative, case-control study design to derive $P{E}_S$. Apart from the very early phase of an epidemic, the difference between the test-negative estimate for $P{E}_S$ and true value of $P{E}_S$ was minimal and became negligible as the epidemic progressed. The test-negative design provided robust estimation of $P{E}_S$ and its waning. Assuming that only 25% of prior infections are documented, misclassification of prior infection status underestimated $P{E}_S$, but the underestimate was considerable only when > 50% of the population was ever infected. Misclassification of latent infection, misclassification of current active infection, and scale-up of vaccination all resulted in negligible bias in estimated $P{E}_S$. The test-negative design was applied to national-level testing data in Qatar to estimate $P{E}_S$ for SARS-CoV-2. $P{E}_S$ against SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Beta variants was estimated at 97.0% (95% CI, 93.6-98.6) and 85.5% (95% CI, 82.4-88.1), respectively. These estimates were validated using a cohort study design. The test-negative design offers a feasible, robust method to estimate protection from prior infection in preventing reinfection.

Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data

Eminent in pandemic management is accurate information on infection dynamics to plan for timely installation of control measures and vaccination campaigns. Despite huge efforts in diagnostic testing of individuals, the underestimation of the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains significant due to the large number of undocumented cases. In this paper we demonstrate and compare three methods to estimate the dynamics of true infections based on secondary data i.e., (a) test positivity, (b) infection fatality and (c) wastewater monitoring. The concept is tested with Austrian data on a national basis for the period of April 2020 to December 2022. Further, we use the results of prevalence studies from the same period to generate (upper and lower bounds of) credible intervals for true infections for four data points. Model parameters are subsequently estimated by applying Approximate Bayesian Computation-rejection sampling and Genetic Algorithms. The method is then validated for the case study Vienna. We find that all three methods yield fairly similar results for estimating the true number of infections, which supports the idea that all three datasets contain similar baseline information. None of them is considered superior, as their advantages and shortcomings depend on the specific case study at hand.

Super-spreading social events for COVID-19 transmission: evidence from the investigation of six early clusters in Bahrain

Introduction

This study aimed to characterize six early clusters of COVID-19 and derive key transmission parameters from confirmed cases that were traced between April and June 2020 in Bahrain.

Methods

Pairs of "infector-infectee" allowed us to map the clusters and estimate the incubation period serial interval as the secondary attack rate. The chi-squared test, with a p-value computed using the Monte Carlo test, measured associations between categorical variables. Statistical analysis was performed using R software and the "data.tree, tidyverse" libraries.

Results

From 9 April to 27 June 2020, we investigated 596 individuals suspected of COVID-19, of whom 127 positive cases were confirmed by PCR and linked in six clusters. The mean age was 30.34 years (S.D. = 17.84 years). The male-to-female ratio was 0.87 (276/318), and most of the contacts were of Bahraini citizenship (511/591 = 86.5%). Exposure occurred within the family in 74.3% (411/553), and 18.9% of clusters' cases were symptomatic (23/122 = 18.9%). Mapped clusters and generations increased after 24 May 2020, corresponding to "Aid El-Fitr." The mean incubation period was 4 days, and the mean serial interval ranged from 3 to 3.31 days. The secondary attack rate was 0.21 (95% C.I.) = [0.17-0.24].

Conclusion

COVID-19 transmission was amplified due to the high number of families mixing during "Aid El Fitr" and "Ramadhan," generating important clusters. Estimated serial intervals and incubation periods support asymptomatic transmission.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in Qatar

BACKGROUND

Some studies have reported that influenza vaccination is associated with lower risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and/or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. This study aims to estimate effectiveness of influenza vaccination, using Abbott's quadrivalent Influvac Tetra vaccine, against SARS-CoV-2 infection and against severe COVID-19.

METHODS

This matched, test-negative, case-control study was implemented on a population of 30,774 healthcare workers (HCWs) in Qatar during the 2020 annual influenza vaccination campaign, September 17, 2020-December 31, 2020, before introduction of COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

Of 30,774 HCWs, 576 with PCR-positive tests and 10,033 with exclusively PCR-negative tests were eligible for inclusion in the study. Matching by sex, age, nationality, reason for PCR testing, and PCR test date yielded 518 cases matched to 2058 controls. Median duration between influenza vaccination and the PCR test was 43 days (IQR, 29-62). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection> 14 days after receiving the vaccine was 29.7% (95% CI: 5.5-47.7%). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was 88.9% (95% CI: 4.1-98.7%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main analysis results.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent influenza vaccination is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.

Antibody affinity and cross-variant neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3 following third mRNA vaccination

There is limited knowledge on durability of neutralization capacity and antibody affinity maturation generated following two versus three doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in naïve versus convalescent individuals (hybrid immunity) against the highly transmissible Omicron BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3 subvariants. Virus neutralization titers against the vaccine-homologous strain (WA1) and Omicron sublineages are measured in a pseudovirus neutralization assay (PsVNA). In addition, antibody binding and antibody affinity against spike proteins from WA1, BA.1, and BA.2 is determined using surface plasmon resonance (SPR). The convalescent individuals who after SARS-CoV-2 infection got vaccinated develop hybrid immunity that shows broader neutralization activity and cross-reactive antibody affinity maturation against the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 after either second or third vaccination compared with naïve individuals. Neutralization activity correlates with antibody affinity against Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.2 spikes. Importantly, at four months post-third vaccination the neutralization activity and antibody affinity against the Omicron subvariants is maintained and trended higher for the individuals with hybrid immunity compared with naïve adults. These findings about hybrid immunity resulting in superior immune kinetics, breadth, and durable high affinity antibodies support the need for booster vaccinations to provide effective protection from emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants like the rapidly spreading Omicron subvariants.

Here the authors show that a third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination significantly boosts neutralizing antibodies against Omicron subvariants and that hybrid immunity (infection and vaccination) results in broader neutralization activity and cross-reactive antibody affinity maturation.