Statistical modelling and forecasting of cervix cancer cases in radiation oncology treatment: a hospital based study from Western Nepal

Pattern of Pediatric Oncology Cases in the Western Region of Nepal

Childhood cancers form a rare and heterogeneous group which fortunately have a higher cure rate than adult cancers. A few non-profit organizations in Nepal have extended support to help patients suffering from cancer, but their main focus has been on adults. The objective of this study was to establish the pattern of childhood cancers in the Western region of Nepal. We reviewed cases receiving external radiotherapy with both palliative and curative intent between 28th September 2010 and 30th September 2015 at the Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, Manipal Teaching Hospital affiliated with Manipal College of Medical Sciences, Pokhara, Nepal. Of the total of 1217 cases, 2.71% involved children. The gender distribution showed a male preponderance (M:F= 1.35:1). The patients’ mean age was 11.4 years (range 2 - 14 years). Considering the caste, Brahmins and Gurungs constituted 33.0% and 21.2%, respectively, of children with cancer.

Distribution of Cancer by Sex and Site in Nepal

Background:

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death throughout the world. The indicators of cancer by site are significant to identify the problem of cancer. The purpose of this retrospective study is to perform the incidence of all cancers both in males and females over the ten years in Nepal.

Methods:

The data collected from all the seven hospital based cancer registries of Nepal have taken for the study. This retrospective study has presented the number of cases, frequencies, and crude incidence of all cancers by sex and site.

Results:

A total of 55,931 cancer cases with known age were registered throughout the hospital based seven cancer registries of Nepal from 2003 to 2012. Throughout the ten years, Lung (incl. trachea and bronchus) cancer (19.08%) was the major cancer in males followed by stomach cancer (7.86%) and Pharynx cancer (5.4%). Similarly, Cervix cancer (21.9%) was the most common cancer in females followed by breast (15.48%) and Lung (incl. trachea and bronchus) cancer (10.47%) over the ten years. This retrospective study presented the distribution of the cancer site over the ten years in Nepal.

Conclusion:

This retrospective study showed that lung cancer is the major cancer in male while in female cervix uteri is the most common cancer ranging from 2003 to 2012.

Trend of Cancer Incidence in Nepal from 2003 to 2012

Trends in cancer incidence is a key tool to identify the pattern of cancer of any country. This retrospective study was performed to present the trends of change in cancer incidence in Nepal.The total number of cancer cases in males was 26,064 while the total number of females cancer cases was 29,867 throughout the 10 years from 2003 to 2012. The cancer incidence per 100,000 in males was 12.8 in 2003 and 25.8 people in 2012. Similarly, in females, the crude incidence rate was 15.1 in 2003 and 26.7 per 100,000 in 2012. Cancer incidence was low at early age but it was increased with age in both sexes in Nepal. Lung cancer was the most common cancer in males throughout, while it was the third most common cancer in females. Cervix uteri was the most common site of cancer in females throughout the 10 years, with a clear trend for increase in breast cancer within this time.

Prediction of the Cancer Incidence in Nepal

Background:

The burden of cancer will increase both in males and females in Nepal. Due to the unavailability of a population based cancer registry it is difficult to precisely predict of future incidence rates. However, using hospital-based data to predict the cancer incidence in Nepal it was found that it will certainly increase both in males and females from 2013 to 2020.

Material and Methods:

For this research we used the cases from the first national cancer registry report (2003) to the cases of the most recent (2012) accumulated by all the hospital based cancer registries in Nepal. We used simple linear regression to analyze the data and thereby obtained a simple linear regression equation.

Result:

In 2020 the highest incidence rate will be for males 38.5 per 100,000 and for females, 41.4. The present study demonstrated that female cancer incidence will be higher than that in males in Nepal.

Conclusion:

This study provided evidence of future trends, which will feature an increasing rate of cancer in Nepal.

Malignant Neoplasm Burden in Nepal - Data from the Seven Major Cancer Service Hospitals for 2012

In Nepal, while no population based cancer registry program exists to assess the incidence, prevalence, morbidity and mortality of cancer, at the national level a number of hospital based cancer registries are cooperating to provide relevant data. Seven major cancer diagnosis and treatment hospitals are involved, including the BP Koirala Memorial Cancer hospital, supported by WHO-Nepal since 2003. The present retrospective analysis of cancer patients of all age groups was conducted to assess the frequencies of different types of cancer presenting from January 1st to December 31st 2012. A total of 7,212 cancer cases were registered, the mean age of the patients being 51.9 years. The most prevalent age group in males was 60-64 yrs (13.6%), while in females it was 50-54 yrs (12.8%). The commonest forms of cancer in males were bronchus and lung (17.6%) followed by stomach (7.3%), larynx (5.2%) and non Hodgkins lymphoma (4.5%). In females, cervix uteri (19.1%) and breast (16.3%), were the top ranking cancer sites followed by bronchus and lung (10.2%), ovary (6.1%) and stomach (3.8%). The present data provide an update of the cancer burden in Nepal and highlight the relatively young age of breast and cervical cancer patients.

Changes in the Distribution of Cancer Incidence in Nepal from 2003 to 2013

Background: Cancer incidence data are vital for cancer control planning in any nation. This retrospective study was conducted to compare the cancer incidence of all sites between the first cancer registry report and the most recent example in Nepal. Material and Methods: The cases in the first (2003) and latest (2013) national cancer registry reports, accumulated by all the hospital based cancer registries in Nepal were taken for the research. The frequencies, crude incidences and age specific incidences (per 100,000) of the five major cancers were calculated for both males and females. Result: The most common cancer type for males in both years 2003 and 2013 was lung. Stomach was the third most common cancer in 2003 while it was the second in 2013. Similarly, the first four major cancers (cervix, breast, lung and ovary) did not change between 2003 and 2013 in females. The total cancer incidence rate increased from 12.8 in 2003 to 30.4 per 100,000 in 2013 for males and from 15.1 to 33.3 in females. Conclusion: The most common cancers in males in 2003 and 2013 were in the bronchus and lung. Similarly, the most common cancer in females was cervix at both time points. The cancer incidence rate in females was higher than in males both in 2003 and 2013.