Survival of Colorectal Cancer in the Presence of Competing- Risks - Modeling by Weibull Distribution

Post-diagnosis adiposity and colorectal cancer prognosis: A Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis

The adiposity influence on colorectal cancer prognosis remains poorly characterised. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on post-diagnosis adiposity measures (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, weight) or their changes and colorectal cancer outcomes. PubMed and Embase were searched through 28 February 2022. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted when at least three studies had sufficient information. The quality of evidence was interpreted and graded by the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) independent Expert Committee on Cancer Survivorship and Expert Panel. We reviewed 124 observational studies (85 publications). Meta-analyses were possible for BMI and all-cause mortality, colorectal cancer-specific mortality, and cancer recurrence/disease-free survival. Non-linear meta-analysis indicated a reverse J-shaped association between BMI and colorectal cancer outcomes (nadir at BMI 28 kg/m2). The highest risk, relative to the nadir, was observed at both ends of the BMI distribution (18 and 38 kg/m2), namely 60% and 23% higher risk for all-cause mortality; 95% and 26% for colorectal cancer-specific mortality; and 37% and 24% for cancer recurrence/disease-free survival, respectively. The higher risk with low BMI was attenuated in secondary analyses of RCTs (compared to cohort studies), among studies with longer follow-up, and in women suggesting potential methodological limitations and/or altered physiological state. Descriptively synthesised studies on other adiposity-outcome associations of interest were limited in number and methodological quality. All the associations were graded as limited (likelihood of causality: no conclusion) due to potential methodological limitations (reverse causation, confounding, selection bias). Additional well-designed observational studies and interventional trials are needed to provide further clarification.

Suicide and Cardiovascular Death Among Patients With Multiple Primary Cancers in the United States

Background

Previous studies have demonstrated that patients with a cancer diagnosis have an elevated risk of suicide and cardiovascular death. However, the effects of the diagnosis of multiple primary cancers (MPCs) on the risk of suicide and cardiovascular death remain unclear. This study aimed to identify the risk of suicide and cardiovascular death among patients with MPCs in the United States.

Methods

Patients with a single or MPC(s) between 1975 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database in a retrospective cohort study. Mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of suicides and cardiovascular diseases among patients with MPCs were estimated.

Results

Of the 645,818 patients diagnosed with MPCs included in this analysis, 760 and 36,209 deaths from suicides and cardiovascular diseases were observed, respectively. The suicide and cardiovascular-disease mortality rates were 1.89- (95% CI, 1.76-2.02) and 1.65-times (95% CI, 1.63-1.67), respectively, that of the general population. The cumulative mortality rate from both suicides and cardiovascular diseases among patients with MPCs were significantly higher than those of patients with a single primary cancer (Both p < 0.001). In patients with MPCs diagnosed asynchronously, the cumulative incidence rates of suicides and cardiovascular deaths were higher than those diagnosed synchronously. Among all MPCs, cancers of the pancreas and esophagus had the highest SMRs of suicide (5.98 and 5.67, respectively), while acute myeloid leukemia and brain cancer had the highest SMRs of cardiovascular diseases (3.87 and 3.62, respectively). The SMR of suicide was highest within 1 year after diagnosis, while that of cardiovascular diseases was highest 5 years after diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study showed that the mortality rates from suicides and cardiovascular diseases among patients with MPCs were higher than those with a single primary cancer. Therefore, our results underscore the need for psychological assessment and targeted preventive interventions for suicides and cardiovascular diseases among patients with MPCs.

Actual survival after resection of primary colorectal cancer: results from a prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third most common type of cancer in the world. We characterize a cohort of patients who survived up to 5 years without recurrence and identify factors predicting the probability of cure.

METHODS

We analyzed data of patients who underwent curative intent surgery for stage I-III CRC between 2007 and 2012 and who had had been included in a large multicenter study in the Netherlands. Cure was defined as 5-year survival without recurrence. Survival data were retrieved from a national registry.

RESULTS

Analysis of data of 754 patients revealed a cure rate of 65% (n = 490). Patients with stage I disease and T1- and N0-tumor had the highest probability of cure (94%, 95% and 90%, respectively). Those with a T4-tumor or N2-tumor had the lowest probability of cure (62% and 50%, respectively). A peak in the mortality rate for older patients early in follow-up suggests early excess mortality as an explanation. A similar trend was observed for stage III disease, poor tumor grade, postoperative complications, sarcopenia, and R1 resections. Patients with stage III disease, poor tumor grade, postoperative complications, sarcopenia, and R1 resections show a similar trend for decrease in CSS deaths over time.

CONCLUSION

In the studied cohort, the probability of cure for patients with stage I-III CRC ranged from 50 to 95%. Even though most patients will be cured from CRC with standard therapy, standard therapy is insufficient for those with poor prognostic factors, such as high T- and N-stage and poor differentiation grade.

Cause-specific hazard regression estimation for modified Weibull distribution under a class of non-informative priors

In time to event analysis, the situation of competing risks arises when the individual (or subject) may experience p mutually exclusive causes of death (failure), where cause-specific hazard function is of great importance in this framework. For instance, in malignancy-related death, colorectal cancer is one of the leading causes of the death in the world and death due to other causes considered as competing causes. We include prognostic variables in the model through parametric Cox proportional hazards model. Mostly, in literature exponential, Weibull, etc. distributions have been used for parametric modelling of cause-specific hazard function but they are incapable to accommodate non-monotone failure rate. Therefore, in this article, we consider a modified Weibull distribution which is capable to model survival data with non-monotonic behaviour of hazard rate. For estimating the cumulative cause-specific hazard function, we utilized maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. A class of non-informative types of prior (uniform, Jeffrey's and half-t) is introduced for Bayes estimation under squared error (symmetric) as well as LINEX (asymmetric) loss functions. A simulation study is performed for a comprehensive comparison of Bayes and maximum likelihood estimators of cumulative cause-specific hazard function. Real data on colorectal cancer is used to demonstrate the proposed model.

Associated Factors of Survival Rate and Screening for Colorectal Cancer in Iran: a Systematic Review

PURPOSE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most important cancers, which has various patterns in the world. The aim of this study was to determine the factor associated to survival and looking for screening in Iran.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, SID, and Magiran on June 30, 2018. Studies that performed survival analysis and the barrier of screening for colorectal cancer were included in this review.

RESULTS

Fifty-three articles for survival and 11 for screening were included and examined. The important factors of survival are the age, cancer stage, tumor grade, ethnicity, marital status, family history of cancer, smoking, metastasis, and obesity. For barrier of screening, the cost, shame, fear of diagnosis the cancer, absence of clinical symptoms, and time limit were determined.

CONCLUSION

Remarkably, knowledge, attitude, and behaviors about CRC screening in Iran are very moderate to poor. According to diversity of survival rates and low tendency to screening, we need to further and deepen studies of barrier and facilitators of screening.

Five-year native liver survival analysis in biliary atresia from a single large Chinese center: The death/liver transplantation hazard change and the importance of rapid early clearance of jaundice

PURPOSE

This study aimed to analyze the change of death/liver transplantation hazard and biochemical indexes over time after Kasai procedure (KP) based on a retrospective biliary atresia (BA) cohort, and to evaluate the predictive value of early jaundice clearance rate to 5-year native liver survival (NLS).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort with follow-up results of 139 BA patients from January 2009 to December 2012 was established, and the pre- and postoperative data were collected. NLS rates were estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves, and any differences between groups were tested by log-rank test. Hazard curve of death/liver transplantation was fitted with Weibull distribution, and hazards at certain time points were calculated. Trend charts of biochemical indexes were drawn to show any changes over time. Rate of jaundice clearance was indicated as the proportion of decreased total bilirubin level at a certain postoperative time point to preoperative total bilirubin level. In multivariate analysis for prediction of 5-year NLS, COX proportional hazard regression model was used and results were expressed as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The predictive value of early jaundice clearance rates for 5-year NLS was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and a cut-off value of 4-week jaundice clearance rate was determined.

RESULTS

The estimated 5-year NLS rate of the 139 patients was 58.0%. The patients had a high hazard of death/liver transplantation early after KP, which gradually decreased and stabilized at a lower level 1 year later. Most death/liver transplantation events occurred within 1 year after KP. The total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL) and total bile acid (TBA) levels of successful Kasai group decreased continuously after KP, and the biggest decline was seen in the first month. The aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) levels increased during the first month after KP and decreased continuously thereafter. All the biochemical indexes of successful Kasai group tended to stabilize within/close to normal range 1 year after KP. On the contrary, all the biochemical indexes of failed Kasai group fluctuated at obvious abnormal levels after KP. The estimated 5-year NLS rates of successful Kasai group and failed Kasai group were 90.1% and 10.7% (p = 0.000). The most significant clinical protective factor of 5-year NLS was 4-week jaundice clearance rate, revealed by COX proportional hazard regression model, and the HR was 0.089 (95%CI 0.018-0.432, p = 0.003). In predicting 5-year native liver survival, the largest area under ROC (AUROC) curve belonged to 4-week jaundice clearance rate, which was 0.731 (p = 0.000). A cut-off value of 0.457 was determined, with sensitivity 0.827, specificity 0.552, positive predictive value 0.720, and negative predictive value 0.696. NLS rates of patients divided by cut-off value showed significant statistical difference demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test (p = 0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

The 5-year death/liver transplantation hazard of biliary atresia patients reduces greatly and stabilizes 1 year after KP. A successful KP enables patients to achieve long-term stable normal biochemical indexes. A rapid clearance of jaundice is of great positive significance to 5-year NLS, and the 4-week jaundice clearance rate is of some predictive value.

TYPE OF STUDY

Prognosis study.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, retrospective study.

Effects of blood glucose, blood lipids and blood pressure control on recovery of patients with gastric cancer complicated with metabolic syndrome after radical gastrectomy

This study aimed to investigate the effects of blood glucose, blood lipids and blood pressure control on recovery of patients with gastric cancer complicated with metabolic syndrome (MS) after radical gastrectomy. A total of 150 patients with gastric cancer, who were treated in Daqing Longnan Hospital from November, 2015 to May, 2017, were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into the MS group (80 cases) and non-MS group (70 cases). Patients in the MS group were given corresponding drugs to control blood pressure, blood lipids and blood glucose, while patients in the non-MS group were not treated with those drugs. Patients in the MS group were divided into the normal and abnormal groups according to the levels of blood glucose, blood lipids and blood pressure. Moreover, occurrences of complications were compared between the normal and abnormal groups. Before surgery, blood glucose, blood lipids and blood pressure in the MS group were significantly higher than those in the non-MS group (p<0.05). One month after operation, blood glucose, blood lipids and blood pressure of the MS group decreased significantly compared to those before operation (p<0.05). Incidence of complications at 1 and 3 months after operation was significantly lower in the normal groups than that in the corresponding abnormal groups (p<0.05). Postoperative recovery was significantly better in the normal groups than that in the corresponding abnormal groups (p<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the incidence of postoperative complications was related to fasting blood glucose, 2 h postprandial blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, total triglycerides (TGs), LDL, mean blood pressure and BMI (p<0.05). The results show that, control of blood glucose, blood lipids and blood pressure in patients with gastric cancer complicated with MS after radical gastrectomy can reduce the incidence of postoperative complications and promote postoperative recovery.