Associations of Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery With Stroke, Subsequent Arrhythmia, and Death : A Cohort Study

Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials

BACKGROUND

Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods-first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy.

RESULTS

A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6-12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%-10.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%-7.4%]; P<0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model - competing risk model 3-year risk) was -1.3% (95% CI, -1.3% to -1.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.

Management of Arrhythmias in the Cardiovascular Intensive Care Unit

Arrhythmias in the cardiovascular intensive care unit (CVICU) can be difficult to manage because of the complex hemodynamic and respiratory states of critically ill patients. Treating physicians must be educated to prevent, diagnose, and treat a multitude of tachyarrhythmias and bradyarrhythmias. In this review article, the authors outline a pragmatic approach to patient assessment, arrhythmia diagnosis, and management of the most common arrhythmias seen in the CVICU.

Exploring postoperative atrial fibrillation after non-cardiac surgery: mechanisms, risk factors, and prevention strategies

Atrial fibrillation (AF) stands as the most prevalent persistent arrhythmia and a common complication after surgical procedures. Although the majority of non-cardiac surgery patients experience postoperative AF (POAF) and the condition is typically self-limited and asymptomatic, its detrimental impact on patient outcomes, prolonged hospitalization, and heightened risk of stroke and overall mortality has become increasingly evident. Of significant concern, POAF emerges as a noteworthy risk factor for stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in comparison to patients with non-surgical atrial fibrillation. Multiple studies have corroborated the association between POAF and an elevated risk of stroke and mortality. The development of postoperative atrial fibrillation is multifactorial, with the inflammatory response being a primary contributor; additionally, factors such as hypovolemia, intraoperative hypotension, anemia, trauma, and pain can trigger POAF. Risk factors for POAF in non-cardiac surgery primarily relate to age, hypertension, obesity, prior cardiac disease, obstructive sleep apnea, and male sex. Prophylactic treatment with β-blockers, amiodarone, or magnesium has demonstrated efficacy, but further trials are warranted, especially in high-risk populations. This review provides an account of the incidence rate, pathophysiology, and prognosis of atrial fibrillation after non-cardiac surgery, elucidates the underlying mechanisms of its occurrence, and explores various preventive strategies investigated in this domain.

Prevention of perioperative stroke in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

About 300 million adults undergo non-cardiac surgery annually. Although, in this setting, the incidence of perioperative stroke is low, the absolute number of patients experiencing a stroke is substantial. Furthermore, most patients with this complication will die or end up with severe disability. Covert brain infarctions are more frequent than overt strokes and are associated with postoperative delirium, cognitive decline, and cerebrovascular events at 1 year after surgery. Evidence shows that traditional stroke risk factors including older age, hypertension, and atrial fibrillation are also associated with perioperative stroke; previous stroke is the strongest risk factor for perioperative stroke. Increasing evidence also suggests the pathogenic role of perioperative events, such as hypotension, new atrial fibrillation, paradoxical embolism, and bleeding. Clinicians involved in perioperative care should be aware of this evidence on prevention strategies to improve patient outcomes after non-cardiac surgery.

Validation of the Use of Discharge Diagnostic Codes for the Verification of Secondary Atrial Fibrillation in Administrative Databases

Background

"Secondary" atrial fibrillation (AF) denotes AF that is precipitated by short-term triggers and that may be reversible. Using administrative data to study secondary AF is of interest, but the ability of these data to verify secondary AF has not been studied.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 1000 randomly selected hospitalizations of patients discharged alive between January 1, 2016 and March 31, 2020, with AF coded as the most responsible diagnosis (type 1), post-admit comorbidity (type 2), or secondary diagnosis (type 3). We compared diagnosis types to AF category (secondary or not) as determined by a physician blinded to the discharge diagnosis type. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) of the designation of secondary AF in comparison to physician determination.

Results

A total of 421 hospitalizations had AF documented as a type 2 diagnosis; this had a PPV of 94.8% for physician determination of secondary AF. After excluding hospitalizations with preexisting AF, and those for which AF type could not be determined by the physician, the PPV of a type 2 diagnosis (n = 391) for secondary AF was 99.7%. Type 3 diagnoses of AF (n = 222) mostly captured hospitalizations with preexisting AF (87.8% of type 3 diagnoses).

Conclusions

A type 2 diagnosis can be used to verify secondary AF in people who were first diagnosed with AF while hospitalized for other causes. This verification facilitates cohort studies and clinical trial recruitment of people with this AF subtype, although it should not be used to determine the prevalence or incidence of secondary AF.

Atrial Fibrillation

Evidence for diagnosis and treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) has expanded substantially since 2017, when In the Clinic last considered this subject. Direct oral anticoagulants have become the predominant therapy for thromboembolic disease, and antidotes for these drugs are now available. Device-based left atrial appendage occlusion is frequently used in patients who cannot tolerate systemic anticoagulation, and growing evidence suggests that early rhythm control improves outcomes. Catheter ablation is now frequently performed to prevent recurrent AF. Managing risk factors for AF, such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, remains paramount in prevention of this condition.

Overestimation of anticoagulant benefit in patients with atrial fibrillation and low life expectancy: evidence from 12 randomized trials

Background

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a high rate of all-cause mortality that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. While the competing risk of death may affect expected anticoagulant benefit, guidelines do not account for it. We sought to determine if using a competing risks framework materially affects the guideline-endorsed estimate of absolute risk reduction attributable to anticoagulants.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 RCTs that randomized patients with AF to oral anticoagulants or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of anticoagulants to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using two methods. First, we estimated the ARR using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA ₂ DS ₂ -VASc) and then again using a Competing Risk Model that uses the same inputs as CHA ₂ DS ₂ -VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for non-linear growth in benefit over time. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences in estimated benefit varied by life expectancy.

Results

7933 participants had a median life expectancy of 8 years (IQR 6, 12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables. 43% were randomized to oral anticoagulation (median age 73 years, 36% women). The guideline-endorsed CHA ₂ DS ₂ -VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the Competing Risk Model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% vs. 5.2%). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA ₂ DS ₂ -VASc model - Competing Risk Model 3-year risk) was -1.2% (42% relative underestimation); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 5.9% (91% relative overestimation).

Conclusion

Anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reduced stroke risk. However, anticoagulant benefits were misestimated with CHA ₂ DS ₂ -VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced in patients with the lowest life expectancy and when benefit was estimated over a multi-year horizon.

Sinus node dysfunction and atrial fibrillation-Relationships, clinical phenotypes, new mechanisms, and treatment approaches

Although the anatomical basis of the pathogenesis of sinus node dysfunction (SND) and atrial fibrillation (AF) is located primarily in the left and right atria, increasing evidence suggests a strong correlation between SND and AF, in terms of both clinical presentation and formation mechanisms. However, the exact mechanisms underlying this association are unclear. The relationship between SND and AF may not be causal, but is likely to involve common factors and mechanisms, including ion channel remodeling, gap junction abnormalities, structural remodeling, genetic mutations, neuromodulation abnormalities, the effects of adenosine on cardiomyocytes, oxidative stress, and viral infections. Ion channel remodeling manifests primarily as alterations in the "funny" current (I_f) and Ca²⁺ clock associated with cardiomyocyte autoregulation, and gap junction abnormalities are manifested primarily as decreased expression of connexins (Cxs) mediating electrical impulse propagation in cardiomyocytes. Structural remodeling refers primarily to fibrosis and cardiac amyloidosis (CA). Some genetic mutations can also cause arrhythmias, such as SCN5A, HCN4, EMD, and PITX2. The intrinsic cardiac autonomic nervous system (ICANS), a regulator of the heart's physiological functions, triggers arrhythmias.In addition, we discuss arrhythmias caused by viral infections, notably Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Similarly to upstream treatments for atrial cardiomyopathy such as alleviating CA, ganglionated plexus (GP) ablation acts on the common mechanisms between SND and AF, thus achieving a dual therapeutic effect.