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Duffy JS, Bellgrove MA, Murphy PR, O'Connell RG. Disentangling sources of variability in decision-making. Nat Rev Neurosci 2025; 26:247-262. [PMID: 40114010 DOI: 10.1038/s41583-025-00916-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/26/2025] [Indexed: 03/22/2025]
Abstract
Even the most highly-trained observers presented with identical choice-relevant stimuli will reliably exhibit substantial trial-to-trial variability in the timing and accuracy of their choices. Despite being a pervasive feature of choice behaviour and a prominent phenotype for numerous clinical disorders, the capability to disentangle the sources of such intra-individual variability (IIV) remains limited. In principle, computational models of decision-making offer a means of parsing and estimating these sources, but methodological limitations have prevented this potential from being fully realized in practice. In this Review, we first discuss current limitations of algorithmic models for understanding variability in decision-making behaviour. We then highlight recent advances in behavioural paradigm design, novel analyses of cross-trial behavioural and neural dynamics, and the development of neurally grounded computational models that are now making it possible to link distinct components of IIV to well-defined neural processes. Taken together, we demonstrate how these methods are opening up new avenues for systematically analysing the neural origins of IIV, paving the way for a more refined, holistic understanding of decision-making in health and disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jade S Duffy
- Trinity College Institute of Neuroscience and School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Mark A Bellgrove
- School of Psychological Sciences and Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peter R Murphy
- Department of Psychology, Maynooth University, Kildare, Ireland
| | - Redmond G O'Connell
- Trinity College Institute of Neuroscience and School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
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Liu R, Guo L, Lin X, Nie D, Astikainen P, Ye C. Dimension-based retro-cue benefit in working memory does not require unfocused dimension removal. Front Psychol 2024; 15:1433405. [PMID: 39554712 PMCID: PMC11566143 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1433405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2024] [Accepted: 10/10/2024] [Indexed: 11/19/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Within the maintenance phase of visual working memory (VWM), previous researchers presented retro-cues orienting to a probed dimension across all multidimension stimuli and found a robust dimension-based retro-cue benefit (RCB): VWM performance for cued dimension was better than no/neutral-cue baseline. This improvement is often attributed to the prioritization of information related to the focused dimension and the removal of information related to the unfocused dimension from VWM. However, it remains unclear whether the removal of the uncued dimension is necessary to observe this dimension-based RCB. Methods In the current study, we first manipulated the number of retro-cues to investigate this question. We used colored, oriented bars as stimuli and two sequential retro-cues oriented to different dimensions in the double-cue condition. The last presented cue in each trial was always valid. Therefore, the unfocused dimension in the first cue display was probed in double-cue trials. Experiment 1 adopted change detection tasks and three cue type conditions (no-cue, single-cue, double-cue). Experiment 2 divided the single-cue condition into early- and late- cue conditions, using recall tasks to elevated probe precision. Experiment 3 further added double-neutral and double-same cue types and eliminated the different influences of post-memory masks on each dimension respectively. Results Results across these experiments showed a robust pattern of no worse performances for the double-cue condition than for the single-cue condition. Discussion Because the dimension-based single cue benefit was observed especially in early-cue trials, we supposed that the dimension-based RCB does not require removing the unfocused dimension from VWM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruyi Liu
- School of Education, Anyang Normal University, Anyang, China
- Institute of Brain and Psychological Sciences, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Lijing Guo
- School of Education, Anyang Normal University, Anyang, China
- Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Xiaoshu Lin
- Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Dan Nie
- Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Piia Astikainen
- Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Chaoxiong Ye
- School of Education, Anyang Normal University, Anyang, China
- Institute of Brain and Psychological Sciences, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyväskylä, Finland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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Murphy PR, Krkovic K, Monov G, Kudlek N, Lincoln T, Donner TH. Individual differences in belief updating and phasic arousal are related to psychosis proneness. COMMUNICATIONS PSYCHOLOGY 2024; 2:88. [PMID: 39313542 PMCID: PMC11420346 DOI: 10.1038/s44271-024-00140-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 09/12/2024] [Indexed: 09/25/2024]
Abstract
Many decisions entail the updating of beliefs about the state of the environment by accumulating noisy sensory evidence. This form of probabilistic reasoning may go awry in psychosis. Computational theory shows that optimal belief updating in environments subject to hidden changes in their state requires a dynamic modulation of the evidence accumulation process. Recent empirical findings implicate transient responses of pupil-linked central arousal systems to individual evidence samples in this modulation. Here, we analyzed behavior and pupil responses during evidence accumulation in a changing environment in a community sample of human participants. We also assessed their subclinical psychotic experiences (psychosis proneness). Participants most prone to psychosis showed overall less flexible belief updating profiles, with diminished behavioral impact of evidence samples occurring late during decision formation. These same individuals also exhibited overall smaller pupil responses and less reliable pupil encoding of computational variables governing the dynamic belief updating. Our findings provide insights into the cognitive and physiological bases of psychosis proneness and open paths to unraveling the pathophysiology of psychotic disorders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter R Murphy
- Section Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
- Department of Psychology, Maynooth University, Co. Kildare, Ireland.
| | - Katarina Krkovic
- Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Institute of Psychology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Gina Monov
- Section Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Natalia Kudlek
- Section Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Tania Lincoln
- Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Institute of Psychology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Tobias H Donner
- Section Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
- Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Germany.
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Monov G, Stein H, Klock L, Gallinat J, Kühn S, Lincoln T, Krkovic K, Murphy PR, Donner TH. Linking Cognitive Integrity to Working Memory Dynamics in the Aging Human Brain. J Neurosci 2024; 44:e1883232024. [PMID: 38760163 PMCID: PMC11211717 DOI: 10.1523/jneurosci.1883-23.2024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 04/13/2024] [Accepted: 04/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024] Open
Abstract
Aging is accompanied by a decline of working memory, an important cognitive capacity that involves stimulus-selective neural activity that persists after stimulus presentation. Here, we unraveled working memory dynamics in older human adults (male and female) including those diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using a combination of behavioral modeling, neuropsychological assessment, and MEG recordings of brain activity. Younger adults (male and female) were studied with behavioral modeling only. Participants performed a visuospatial delayed match-to-sample task under systematic manipulation of the delay and distance between sample and test stimuli. Their behavior (match/nonmatch decisions) was fit with a computational model permitting the dissociation of noise in the internal operations underlying the working memory performance from a strategic decision threshold. Task accuracy decreased with delay duration and sample/test proximity. When sample/test distances were small, older adults committed more false alarms than younger adults. The computational model explained the participants' behavior well. The model parameters reflecting internal noise (not decision threshold) correlated with the precision of stimulus-selective cortical activity measured with MEG during the delay interval. The model uncovered an increase specifically in working memory noise in older compared with younger participants. Furthermore, in the MCI group, but not in the older healthy controls, internal noise correlated with the participants' clinically assessed cognitive integrity. Our results are consistent with the idea that the stability of working memory contents deteriorates in aging, in a manner that is specifically linked to the overall cognitive integrity of individuals diagnosed with MCI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gina Monov
- Section of Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology & Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
| | - Henrik Stein
- Department of Psychiatry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
| | - Leonie Klock
- Department of Psychiatry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
| | - Juergen Gallinat
- Department of Psychiatry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
| | - Simone Kühn
- Department of Psychiatry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
| | - Tania Lincoln
- Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Institute of Psychology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Katarina Krkovic
- Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Institute of Psychology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 20146, Germany
| | - Peter R Murphy
- Section of Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology & Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
- Department of Psychology, Maynooth University, Co. Kildare, Ireland
| | - Tobias H Donner
- Section of Computational Cognitive Neuroscience, Department of Neurophysiology & Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
- Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin 10115, Germany
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Cihak HL, Kilpatrick ZP. MULTISCALE MOTION AND DEFORMATION OF BUMPS IN STOCHASTIC NEURAL FIELDS WITH DYNAMIC CONNECTIVITY. MULTISCALE MODELING & SIMULATION : A SIAM INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL 2024; 22:178-203. [PMID: 39885947 PMCID: PMC11781529 DOI: 10.1137/23m1582655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2025]
Abstract
The distinct timescales of synaptic plasticity and neural activity dynamics play an important role in the brain's learning and memory systems. Activity-dependent plasticity reshapes neural circuit architecture, determining spontaneous and stimulus-encoding spatiotemporal patterns of neural activity. Neural activity bumps maintain short term memories of continuous parameter values, emerging in spatially organized models with short-range excitation and long-range inhibition. Previously, we demonstrated nonlinear Langevin equations derived using an interface method which accurately describe the dynamics of bumps in continuum neural fields with separate excitatory/inhibitory populations. Here we extend this analysis to incorporate effects of short term plasticity that dynamically modifies connectivity described by an integral kernel. Linear stability analysis adapted to these piecewise smooth models with Heaviside firing rates further indicates how plasticity shapes the bumps' local dynamics. Facilitation (depression), which strengthens (weakens) synaptic connectivity originating from active neurons, tends to increase (decrease) stability of bumps when acting on excitatory synapses. The relationship is inverted when plasticity acts on inhibitory synapses. Multiscale approximations of the stochastic dynamics of bumps perturbed by weak noise reveal that the plasticity variables evolve to slowly diffusing and blurred versions of their stationary profiles. Nonlinear Langevin equations associated with bump positions or interfaces coupled to slowly evolving projections of plasticity variables accurately describe how these smoothed synaptic efficacy profiles can tether or repel wandering bumps.
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Eissa TL, Kilpatrick ZP. Learning efficient representations of environmental priors in working memory. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1011622. [PMID: 37943956 PMCID: PMC10662764 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2022] [Revised: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/20/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Experience shapes our expectations and helps us learn the structure of the environment. Inference models render such learning as a gradual refinement of the observer's estimate of the environmental prior. For instance, when retaining an estimate of an object's features in working memory, learned priors may bias the estimate in the direction of common feature values. Humans display such biases when retaining color estimates on short time intervals. We propose that these systematic biases emerge from modulation of synaptic connectivity in a neural circuit based on the experienced stimulus history, shaping the persistent and collective neural activity that encodes the stimulus estimate. Resulting neural activity attractors are aligned to common stimulus values. Using recently published human response data from a delayed-estimation task in which stimuli (colors) were drawn from a heterogeneous distribution that did not necessarily correspond with reported population biases, we confirm that most subjects' response distributions are better described by experience-dependent learning models than by models with fixed biases. This work suggests systematic limitations in working memory reflect efficient representations of inferred environmental structure, providing new insights into how humans integrate environmental knowledge into their cognitive strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tahra L. Eissa
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Zachary P. Kilpatrick
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
- Institute of Cognitive Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
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