Thapa R, Iqbal Z, Garikipati A, Siefkas A, Hoffman J, Mao Q, Das R. Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis using machine learning.
Pancreatology 2022;
22:43-50. [PMID:
34690046 DOI:
10.1016/j.pan.2021.10.003]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is one of the most common causes of gastrointestinal-related hospitalizations in the United States. Severe AP (SAP) is associated with a mortality rate of nearly 30% and is distinguished from milder forms of AP. Risk stratification to identify SAP cases needing inpatient treatment is an important aspect of AP diagnosis.
METHODS
We developed machine learning algorithms to predict which patients presenting with AP would require treatment for SAP. Three models were developed using logistic regression, neural networks, and XGBoost. Models were assessed in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and compared to the Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores for AP risk stratification.
RESULTS
61,894 patients were used to train and test the machine learning models. With an AUROC value of 0.921, the model developed using XGBoost outperformed the logistic regression and neural network-based models. The XGBoost model also achieved a higher AUROC than both HAPS and BISAP for identifying patients who would be diagnosed with SAP.
CONCLUSIONS
Machine learning may be able to improve the accuracy of AP risk stratification methods and allow for more timely treatment and initiation of interventions.
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