Prognostic Value of Lymph Node Ratio in Cutaneous Melanoma: A Systematic Review

A prediction model for the 5-year, 10-year and 20-year mortality of medullary thyroid carcinoma patients based on lymph node ratio and other predictors

Aim

To explore the predictive value of lymph node ratio (LNR) for the prognosis of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients, and constructed prediction models for the 5-year, 10-year and 20-year mortality of MTC patients based on LNR and other predictors.

Methods

This cohort study extracted the data of 2,093 MTC patients aged ≥18 years undergoing total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes dissection. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival curves between LNR < 15% group and LNR ≥ 15% group. All data was divided into the training set (n = 1,465) and the testing set (n = 628). The random survival forest model was constructed in the training set and validated in the testing set. The area under the curve (AUC) was employed for evaluating the predictive ability of the model.

Results

The 5-year, 10-year and 20-year overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) of MTC patients with LNR <15% were higher than those with LNR ≥15%. The OS was 46% and the CSS was 75% after 20 years' follow-up. The AUC of the model for the 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year OS in MTC patients was 0.878 (95%CI: 0.856-0.900), 0.859 (95%CI: 0.838-0.879) and 0.843 (95%CI: 0.823-0.862) in the training set and 0.845 (95%CI: 0.807-0.883), 0.841 (95%CI: 0.807-0.875) and 0.841 (95%CI: 0.811-0.872) in the testing set. In the training set, the AUCs were 0.869 (95%CI: 0.845-0.892), 0.843 (95%CI: 0.821-0.865), 0.819 (95%CI: 0.798-0.840) for the 5-year, 10-year and 20-year CCS in MTC patients, respectively. In the testing set, the AUCs were 0.857 (95%CI: 0.822-0.892), 0.839 (95%CI: 0.805-0.873) and 0.826 (95%CI: 0.794-0.857) for the 5-year CCS, 10-year CCS and 20-year CCS in MTC patients, respectively.

Conclusion

The models displayed good predictive performance, which might help identify MTC patients might have poor outcomes and appropriate interventions should be applied in these patients.

Central Lymph Node Ratio Predicts Recurrence in Patients with N1b Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Simple Summary

The lymph node ratio (LNR) is an emerging predictive marker for recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between LNR and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with N1b PTC. Unlike that in the lateral or whole neck, LNR in the central compartment (CLNR) was found to have prognostic significance. The high-CLNR group (CLNR ≥ 0.7) had worse DFS and was 4.5 times more likely to experience recurrence in patients with N1b PTC.

Abstract

The lymph node ratio (LNR) indicates the number of metastatic lymph nodes (LNs) to the total number of LNs. The prognostic value of LNR in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and other solid tumors is known. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between LNR and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with PTC with lateral LN metastases (N1b PTC). A total of 307 patients with N1b PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy and therapeutic central and lateral LN dissection were retrospectively analyzed. The DFS and recurrence risk in the patients with LNR, central-compartment LNR (CLNR), and lateral-compartment LNR (LLNR) were compared. The mean follow-up duration was 93.6 ± 19.9 months. Eleven (3.6%) patients experienced recurrence. Neither LNR nor LLNR affected the recurrence rate in our analysis (p = 0.058, p = 0.106, respectively). However, there was a significant difference in the recurrence rates between the patients with low and high CLNR (2.1% vs. 8.8%, p = 0.017). In the multivariate analysis, CLNR ≥ 0.7 and perineural invasion were independent predictors of tumor recurrence. High CLNR was associated with an increased risk of recurrence, and was shown to be a significant predictor of prognosis in patients with N1b PTC.