Isolation of an Egg-Adapted Influenza A(H3N2) Virus without Amino Acid Substitutions at the Antigenic Sites of Its Hemagglutinin

MADE: A Computational Tool for Predicting Vaccine Effectiveness for the Influenza A(H3N2) Virus Adapted to Embryonated Eggs

Seasonal Influenza H3N2 virus poses a great threat to public health, but its vaccine efficacy remains suboptimal. One critical step in influenza vaccine production is the viral passage in embryonated eggs. Recently, the strength of egg passage adaptation was found to be rapidly increasing with time driven by convergent evolution at a set of functionally important codons in the hemagglutinin (HA1). In this study, we aim to take advantage of the negative correlation between egg passage adaptation and vaccine effectiveness (VE) and develop a computational tool for selecting the best candidate vaccine virus (CVV) for vaccine production. Using a probabilistic approach known as mutational mapping, we characterized the pattern of sequence evolution driven by egg passage adaptation and developed a new metric known as the adaptive distance (AD) which measures the overall strength of egg passage adaptation. We found that AD is negatively correlated with the influenza H3N2 vaccine effectiveness (VE) and ~75% of the variability in VE can be explained by AD. Based on these findings, we developed a computational package that can Measure the Adaptive Distance and predict vaccine Effectiveness (MADE). MADE provides a powerful tool for the community to calibrate the effect of egg passage adaptation and select more reliable strains with minimum egg-passaged changes as the seasonal A/H3N2 influenza vaccine.

Comparison of immunogenicity between candidate influenza A(H3N2) virus vaccine strains in Japan: A randomized controlled trial using a monovalent vaccine of A/Saitama/103/2014 (CEXP-002) and A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (X-263)

BACKGROUND

For the 2017-18 influenza season, A/Saitama/103/2014 (CEXP-002) (Saitama strain) was antigenically more similar to prior circulating strains than A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (X-263) (Hong Kong strain) in a ferret model and was selected as the A(H3N2) vaccine virus strain in Japan. However, the Saitama strain grew poorly, and the Japanese government switched to the Hong Kong strain, raising public concerns of poor effectiveness. To enhance understanding of the correlation between antigenicity in experimental models and immunogenicity, as a surrogate measure of vaccine effectiveness, in the human population, we compared the immunogenicity of specially-prepared single dose monovalent influenza A(H3N2) vaccines containing the Saitama or the Hong Kong strain.

METHODS

A randomized controlled trial of 100 healthy adults aged 20-64 years (n = 50/group) was conducted. Virus neutralization assay was performed on sera from days 0 (pre-vaccination) and 21 (post-vaccination). Geometric mean titer (GMT), mean fold rise (MFR), seroconversion proportion (SCP), and seroprotection proportion (SPP) were calculated for vaccine strains and a representative circulating A(H3N2) virus strain (A/Osaka/188/2017).

RESULTS

For the Hong Kong strain, post-vaccination GMT was significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients (1:546 vs 1:260, p < 0.01), but MFR, SCP, and SPP were similar for both vaccine groups. For the Saitama strain, post-vaccination GMT (1:116 vs 1:61, p = 0.01) and SPP (86% vs 68%, p = 0.03) were significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients, but MFR and SCP were similar for both vaccine groups. Against A/Osaka/188/2017, post-vaccination GMT and MFR were similar in both vaccine groups, but SCP (32% vs 4%, p < 0.01) and SPP (28% vs. 6%, p < 0.01) were significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients.

CONCLUSION

The Hong Kong vaccine induced better or equivalent immunogenicity in comparison to the Saitama vaccine. Our trial showed that antigenic similarity in experimental models does not necessarily correlate with immunogenicity in the human population.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN000029293.