Beyond linear regression: Modeling COVID-19 clinical cases with wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 for the city of Athens and Ohio University campus

Wastewater-based surveillance has emerged as a detection tool for population-wide infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Infected individuals shed the virus, which can be detected in wastewater using molecular techniques such as reverse transcription-digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-dPCR). This study examined the association between the number of clinical cases and the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater beyond linear regression and for various normalizations of viral loads. Viral loads were measured in a total of 446 wastewater samples during the period from August 2021 to April 2022. These samples were collected from nine different locations, with 220 samples taken from four specific sites within the city of Athens and 226 samples from five sites within Ohio University. The correlation between COVID-19 cases and wastewater viral concentrations, which was estimated using the Pearson correlation coefficient, was statistically significant and ranged from 0.6 to 0.9. In addition, time-lagged cross correlation was applied to identify the lag time between clinical and wastewater data, estimated 4 to 7 days. While we also explored the effect on the correlation coefficients of various normalizations of viral loads accounting for procedural loss or amount of fecal material and of estimated lag times, these alternative specifications did not change our substantive conclusions. Additionally, several linear and non-linear regression models were applied to predict the COVID-19 cases given wastewater data as input. The non-linear approach was found to yield the highest R-squared and Pearson correlation and lowest Mean Absolute Error values between the predicted and actual number of COVID-19 cases for both aggregated OHIO Campus and city data. Our results provide support for previous studies on correlation and time lag and new evidence that non-linear models, approximated with artificial neural networks, should be implemented for WBS of contagious diseases.

Association Between Exclusive Breastfeeding and Acute Respiratory Infections Among Infants Under the Age of 6 Months

Introduction: Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is the leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. Exclusive breastfeeding is considered the cornerstone of child health; however, the rate of exclusive breastfeeding is suboptimal in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aimed to assess the association between exclusive breastfeeding and ARI among infants under the age of 6 months in a LMIC. Methods: A secondary analysis of the 2014 Egypt Demographic Health Survey data was conducted. Mothers of infants under the age of 6 months (n = 1,340) were included. The outcome of interest was ARI symptoms among infants, defined by mother's report of a cough accompanied by fast or difficult breathing in the 2 weeks preceding the survey. The exposure variable was exclusive breastfeeding, defined by giving infants only breast milk during the first 6 months of life. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression were performed. Results: Forty-one percent of the infants were exclusively breastfed and 9% had ARI symptoms. Exclusive breastfeeding reduced the odds of ARI symptoms (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.450, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.243-0.832). Infants of mothers 20-34 years of age (AOR = 0.421, 95% CI: 0.217-0.817) and ≥35 years (AOR = 0.308, 95% CI: 0.123-0.767) at childbirth were less likely to have symptoms of an ARI when compared with adolescent mothers. The likelihood of having ARI symptoms was higher among infants 2-3 months of age (AOR = 2.437, 95% CI: 1.093-5.435), and 4-5 months (AOR = 2.888, 95% CI: 1.193-6.992) compared with infants less than 2 months. Conclusion: Exclusive breastfeeding was protective against ARI symptoms among under-6-month infants, independent of potential confounders.

Prevalence and determinants of hypertension unawareness among Egyptian adults: the 2015 EHIS

Hypertension (HTN) is a major cardiovascular risk factor that affects 1.3 billion people and accounts for 17.9 million deaths annually worldwide. Seventy-five percent of global deaths due to HTN occur in low- and middle-income countries where HTN prevalence is higher, and HTN control and population awareness are lower, than in high-income countries. Approximately 26% of Egyptian adults meet criteria for HTN, but the prevalence of HTN unawareness is unknown in this population. The purpose of this study was to assess prevalence and predictors of HTN unawareness among Egyptian adults. Using data from the 2015 Egyptian Health Issues Survey (EHIS), we identified 2869 participants 18-59 years of age whose blood pressure met criteria for HTN at the time of data collection. Our outcome of interest, hypertension unawareness, was indicated when a participant reported that they had not been diagnosed with HTN (despite meeting criteria). Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression were performed to determine prevalence of, and risk factors for, HTN unawareness. Fifty-six percent of the sample were unaware of their HTN status. The odds of HTN unawareness were highest among participants 18-39 years old compared to those 40-59 years old (OR 1.91; 95% CI 1.48-2.47); males compared to females (OR 2.59; 95% CI 1.85-3.62); and never married compared to currently married participants (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.19-3.24). Compared to those who had a college level education, the odds of HTN unawareness were highest among participants who had no education (OR 2.21; 95% CI 1.45-3.38). In addition, the odds of HTN unawareness were higher for participants who had a normal body mass index compared to those who were obese (OR 1.82; 95% CI 1.26-2.65); and those considered healthy compared to those who had at least one chronic illness (OR 4.53; 95% CI 3.29-6.24). Our findings indicate that more than half of Egyptian adults who meet criteria for HTN are unaware of their blood pressure status. Younger, healthier, and normal weight people-who are typically at lowest risk for HTN-appear mostly likely to be unaware of their HTN status. Less educated people are least likely to know their hypertensive status. This suggests the need for a targeted health education campaign and regular blood pressure screening in Egypt.

Association between antenatal care follow-up and institutional delivery service utilization: analysis of 2016 Ethiopia demographic and health survey

BACKGROUND

Globally, the magnitude of maternal mortality is the major public health problem. Nearly all (99%) of maternal deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Of which 66% occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Institutional delivery under the hygienic environment with the necessary skills and equipment promotes to identify and treat complications, infections, and the death of the mother and baby. In Ethiopia, the utilization of maternal health services is very low. For instance, 62% of women had antenatal care utilization during pregnancy while only 26% of women utilize institutions for delivery in 2016. Therefore, this study examined the association between antenatal care follow up and intestinal delivery among a nationally representative woman in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was used to examine 7575 women from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were utilized. Variables in the bivariate logistic regression with p-value < 0.2 were entered into the multivariable logistic regression. Odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. In the multivariable analysis, variables with p-value < 0.05 were considered as statistically significant.

RESULTS

The prevalence of institutional delivery service utilization for last childbirth was 11.3%. In comparison with women with no antenatal care visits, the multivariable odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of institutional delivery among those who attend one to three and four or more antenatal care visit were 2.49 (1.66, 3.74) and 3.90 (2.60, 5.84), respectively. Other factors significantly associated with institutional delivery include urban residence 2.25 (1.44, 3.51), complete primary education 3.22 (2.09, 4.98), complete secondary or higher education 1.59 (1.16, 2.17), poorer household wealth index 2.57 (1.57, 4.20), middle household wealth index 1.63 (1.05, 2.52), and richer household wealth index 1.56(1.03, 2.58).

CONCLUSION

Antenatal care follow-up was significantly associated with institutional delivery service utilization. As the number of antenatal care visits increased the odds of facility delivery increased. Thus, improved access and utilization of antenatal care can be an effective strategy to increase institutional deliveries and optimal maternal and child health outcomes.

Association between HIV/AIDS knowledge and stigma towards people living with HIV/AIDS in Botswana

In Botswana, an estimated 350 000 people live with HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS testing rates are low, suggesting that many other people remain undiagnosed. Stigma related to HIV/AIDS is prevalent and contributes to low testing rates and under-diagnosis of the virus. Identifying factors that contribute to stigma, such as insufficient or inaccurate knowledge of HIV/AIDS, may be critical in increasing early identification and treatment. This cross-sectional study used nationally representative data from the 2013 Botswana AIDS Impact Survey (BAIS) IV to examine the relationship between HIV/AIDS knowledge and stigmatising attitudes toward people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). The mean (standard error) for stigma towards PLWHA score and HIV/AIDS knowledge score were 0.99 (0.02) and 5.90 (0.03) respectively. HIV/AIDS knowledge score and stigma towards PLWHA score were strongly positively correlated r (4,4045) = 0.415, p < 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, HIV/AIDS knowledge score significantly predicted stigma towards PLWHA score [coefficient β (95% CI)] [-0.25 (-0.29, -0.20), p < 0.001]. These findings imply that programmes and interventions that increase HIV/AIDS knowledge may reduce the pervasive apprehension, blame, and stigmatising attitude held towards PLWHA in Botswana.

Secondary data analysis to answer questions in human biology

Despite a growing number of publicly available datasets, the use of these datasets for secondary analyses in human biology is less common compared with other fields. Secondary analysis of existing data offers an opportunity for human biologists to ask unique questions through an evolutionary and biocultural lens, allowing for an analysis of cultural and structural nuances that affect health. Leveraging publicly available datasets for human biology research is a way for students and established researchers to complement their data collection, use existing data for master's and doctoral theses, pilot test questions, and use existing data to answer interesting new questions or explore questions at the population level. Here we describe where publicly available data are stored, highlighting some data repositories and how to access them. We then discuss how to decide which dataset is right, depending on the research question. Next, we describe steps to construct datasets, analytical considerations and methodological challenges, best practices, and limitations depending on the structure of the study. We close by highlighting a number of publicly available datasets that have been used by human biologists and other datasets that may be of interest to the community, including research that has been conducted on some example datasets.

The impact of multimorbidity on adult physical and mental health in low- and middle-income countries: what does the study on global ageing and adult health (SAGE) reveal?

BACKGROUND

Chronic diseases contribute a large share of disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Chronic diseases have a tendency to occur simultaneously and where there are two or more such conditions, this is termed as 'multimorbidity'. Multimorbidity is associated with adverse health outcomes, but limited research has been undertaken in LMICs. Therefore, this study examines the prevalence and correlates of multimorbidity as well as the associations between multimorbidity and self-rated health, activities of daily living (ADLs), quality of life, and depression across six LMICs.

METHODS

Data was obtained from the WHO's Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Wave-1 (2007/10). This was a cross-sectional population based survey performed in LMICs, namely China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, including 42,236 adults aged 18 years and older. Multimorbidity was measured as the simultaneous presence of two or more of eight chronic conditions including angina pectoris, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, stroke, and vision impairment. Associations with four health outcomes were examined, namely ADL limitation, self-rated health, depression, and a quality of life index. Random-intercept multilevel regression models were used on pooled data from the six countries.

RESULTS

The prevalence of morbidity and multimorbidity was 54.2 % and 21.9 %, respectively, in the pooled sample of six countries. Russia had the highest prevalence of multimorbidity (34.7 %) whereas China had the lowest (20.3 %). The likelihood of multimorbidity was higher in older age groups and was lower in those with higher socioeconomic status. In the pooled sample, the prevalence of 1+ ADL limitation was 14 %, depression 5.7 %, self-rated poor health 11.6 %, and mean quality of life score was 54.4. Substantial cross-country variations were seen in the four health outcome measures. The prevalence of 1+ ADL limitation, poor self-rated health, and depression increased whereas quality of life declined markedly with an increase in number of diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings highlight the challenge of multimorbidity in LMICs, particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups, and the pressing need for reorientation of health care resources considering the distribution of multimorbidity and its adverse effect on health outcomes.

Gerontology education and research in Kenya: establishing a US-African partnership in aging

This article reprises four presentations on Gerontology Education in Kenya, a seminar at the 2004 Annual Meeting of the Association of Gerontology in Higher Education. It describes the process by which the Gerontology Institute of Georgia State University established a 3-year gerontology education and research partnership with Kenyatta University in Nairobi, Kenya, and the field experiences of two scholars who have conducted aging research in Kenya. We provide four key elements of cultural competence and recommendations for American gerontologists wishing to establish international linkages.