Prediction of Headache Response in Migraine Treatment

Triptans are efficacious for the acute treatment of migraine attacks. Yet, defining a concentration-effect relation for these compounds is difficult as the dynamics of the migraine attack are not thoroughly understood. The objective of this investigation was to develop a disease model to predict measures of headache in randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials investigating oral sumatriptan as a paradigm compound. A hidden Markov model based on the states of response (no relief, relief, and pain free) and headache scores (observed variable) was used in conjunction with population pharmacokinetics. Model parameters were capable of predicting the course of headache relief, pain-free status and headache recurrence. It was shown that sumatriptan shortens mean transit times between states by up to 5 h. The potency of sumatriptan (EC50) was 9 ng/ml. These findings demonstrate the value of combining pharmacokinetic and efficacy information to model disease and characterize time-independent drug properties in a population of migraineurs.

Generating Virtual Patients by Multivariate and Discrete Re-Sampling Techniques

Purpose

Clinical Trial Simulations (CTS) are a valuable tool for decision-making during drug development. However, to obtain realistic simulation scenarios, the patients included in the CTS must be representative of the target population. This is particularly important when covariate effects exist that may affect the outcome of a trial. The objective of our investigation was to evaluate and compare CTS results using re-sampling from a population pool and multivariate distributions to simulate patient covariates.

Methods

COPD was selected as paradigm disease for the purposes of our analysis, FEV1 was used as response measure and the effects of a hypothetical intervention were evaluated in different populations in order to assess the predictive performance of the two methods.

Results

Our results show that the multivariate distribution method produces realistic covariate correlations, comparable to the real population. Moreover, it allows simulation of patient characteristics beyond the limits of inclusion and exclusion criteria in historical protocols.

Conclusion

Both methods, discrete resampling and multivariate distribution generate realistic pools of virtual patients. However the use of a multivariate distribution enable more flexible simulation scenarios since it is not necessarily bound to the existing covariate combinations in the available clinical data sets.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11095-015-1699-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prediction of disease progression, treatment response and dropout in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

Purpose

Drug development in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been characterised by unacceptably high failure rates. In addition to the poor sensitivity in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁), numerous causes are known to contribute to this phenomenon, which can be clustered into drug-, disease- and design-related factors. Here we present a model-based approach to describe disease progression, treatment response and dropout in clinical trials with COPD patients.

Methods

Data from six phase II trials lasting up to 6 months were used. Disease progression (trough FEV₁ measurements) was modelled by a time–varying function, whilst the treatment effect was described by an indirect response model. A time-to-event model was used for dropout

Results

All relevant parameters were characterised with acceptable precision. Two parameters were necessary to model the dropout patterns, which was found to be partly linked to the treatment failure. Disease severity at baseline, previous use of corticosteroids, gender and height were significant covariates on disease baseline whereas disease severity and reversibility to salbutamol/salmeterol were significant covariates on E_max for salmeterol active arm.

Conclusion

Incorporation of the various interacting factors into a single model will offer the basis for patient enrichment and improved dose rationale in COPD.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11095-014-1490-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Analysis of the relationship between age and treatment response in migraine

In migraine, headache severity varies with age. As a consequence, the effectiveness of medication may also depend on a patient's age. The purpose of this study was to assess the combined effect of age and drug treatment on headache characteristics. Using data from clinical trials of sumatriptan in adolescents and adults, we show how the interaction between age and drug exposure can be parameterised as a covariate on a Markov model that describes the decline of headache severity over three clinically defined stages (no relief, relief and pain-free status). The model explains important clinical observations: (i) the rates at which the pain relief and pain-free status were attained were found to be inversely related to age; (ii) in placebo-treated patients, the mean transit time from 'no relief' to 'relief' is 3 h for young adolescents and increases to 6 h for patients aged >or= 30 years; and (iii) sumatriptan reduces the transit time to 2 h, irrespective of age. These findings indicate that the therapeutic gain over placebo increases with age. Prospective studies of antimigraine drugs should take this relationship into account when extrapolating efficacy data from adults to adolescents.

Prediction of attack frequency in migraine treatment

Usually limited information about the frequency of migraine episodes is derived from acute migraine trials. However, the design of some studies is such that they also provide relevant information about the attack frequency without the bias associated with patient expectations of treatment effect between attacks during prophylaxis trials. Using clinical data from repeated migraine attacks treated with placebo, naratriptan 2.5 mg or sumatriptan 100 mg, we show that attack and interictal periods can be described by a random probability distribution. Based on a gamma distribution, the mean interval between attacks was estimated to be 24 (17-34) days for placebo, 23 (18-29) days for naratriptan 2.5 mg and 22 (17-28) for sumatriptan 100 mg. These findings suggest that the interictal interval is not affected by abortive treatment with triptans. Interpretation of these results may be limited by the study type, yet the method represents a new tool for the evaluation of disease dynamics and treatment effect in the prophylaxis of migraine.

Relevance of absorption rate and lag time to the onset of action in migraine

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this analysis was to simulate the performance of oral triptan formulations with varying absorption characteristics and their impact on the onset and magnitude of the antimigraine effect using a Markov model for migraine attacks.

ANALYSIS

Sumatriptan pharmacokinetic data were obtained from clinical pharmacology studies in which marketed solid formulations were administered. Based on a population pharmacokinetic model, mean concentration-time profiles were generated by varying the absorption rate constant and lag time. Subsequently, the simulated profiles were evaluated in a disease model of migraine to predict the onset and duration of the effect (the pain-free, pain-relief response).

RESULTS

Based on a therapeutic dose of 50 mg of sumatriptan, a maximum gain in the pain-free response of 12% was achieved with an increased absorption rate. This gain in the response was reached approximately 0.5 hours after administration. A decrease only in the lag time with respect to the currently available formulations (i.e. 0.24 hours) resulted in a maximum gain of 5% in the pain-free response, which in contrast may not be interpreted as clinically relevant.

CONCLUSION

Model-based predictions suggest that increases in the absorption rate of the currently marketed oral formulation of sumatriptan result in a gain in the pain-free response that is both clinically and statistically relevant.

A model-based approach to treatment comparison in acute migraine

AIMS

Currently, direct comparisons between 5-HT(1B/d) receptor agonists are used to assess differences and similarities in antimigraine response. Such comparisons depend on the selected sampling time and do not allow evaluation of entire response profiles. A thorough evaluation of drug properties requires that the time course of the response be taken into account. In this investigation we show the advantages of a model-based approach to compare the efficacy of two triptans (sumatriptan vs. naratriptan).

METHODS

A Markov model was used to describe the course of a migraine attack over three clinically identified stages. Drug effects were modelled as concentration-dependent increases in transition rates and were parameterised as potency (EC(50)) and maximum effect (E(max)). Parameters were estimated using headache measurements from efficacy studies. Model estimates were then used to compare the pharmacodynamics of the two drugs in a time-independent manner.

RESULTS

Efficacy parameters could be derived, allowing for comparison between compounds. The potency ratio (EC50(suma)/EC50(nara)) for headache relief was 3.3 (0.9, 12). The ratio of maximum effects (Emax(suma)/Emax(nara)) for this endpoint was 0.74 (0.55, 0.97). To interpret these efficacy measures and explore their value for the development of antimigraine drugs, results were evaluated against the reported in vitro potency at 5-HT(1B) and 5-HT(1D) receptors.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparison of the effects of two or more drugs based on preset sampling times does not allow proper assessment of the antimigraine properties in vivo. Disease dynamics must be considered to evaluate treatment response adequately and optimise the dosing regimen in migraine.

Analysis of responses in migraine modelling using hidden Markov models

Markov-type models have been used in the analysis of disease progression. Although standard errors of model parameters are usually estimated, available software often does not permit the construction of confidence intervals around predictions of the dependent or response variable. A method is presented to calculate means and confidence intervals of model-predicted responses in time governed by a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model in continuous time. The Kolmogorov equations serve as the basis for the calculations. The method is realised in S-Plus and is applied to the prediction of headache responses in clinical studies of anti-migraine treatment. Means and confidence intervals are calculated by numerically solving differential equations that are non-linear in the explanatory variable. Results indicate that uncertainty on predicted drug responses is larger than that on predicted placebo responses and that pain-free responses are less precisely predicted than pain-relief responses. This is due to the uncertainty in the drug-specific parameters which is not present in predicted placebo responses.

Transdermal iontophoretic delivery of apomorphine in patients improved by surfactant formulation pretreatment

The objective of the present study is to evaluate the efficacy and the safety of transdermal iontophoretic delivery of R-apomorphine, a potent dopamine agonist, in combination with surfactant pretreatment in patients with advanced Parkinson's disease. Iontophoresis patches were applied in 16 patients for 3.5 h, with 0.5 h of passive delivery followed by 3 h of current application at a current density of 250 microA/cm2. Eight of these patients were treated with a surfactant formulation prior to iontophoresis. The pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamic effects, systemic and local side effects of R-apomorphine were assessed. The plasma concentration vs. time profiles upon iontophoresis of R-apomorphine were described successfully by a novel pharmacokinetic model. The model suggests that only 1.9% of the dose that has been released from the patch accumulated in the skin. The patients treated with the surfactant formulations showed a statistically significant increase of bioavailability (from 10.6+/-0.8% to 13.2+/-1.4%) and of the steady state input rate (from 75.3+/-6.6 to 98.3+/-12.1 nmol/cm2 h) compared to the control patients (iontophoresis without absorption enhancers). In five out of eight patients in the study group and in three out of eight patients in the control group, clinical improvement was observed.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of buspirone and its metabolite 1-(2-pyrimidinyl)-piperazine in rats

The objective of this investigation was to compare the in vivo potency and intrinsic activity of buspirone and its metabolite 1-(2-pyrimidinyl)-piperazine (1-PP) in rats by pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. Following intravenous administration of buspirone (5 or 15 mg/kg in 15 min) or 1-PP (10 mg/kg in 15 min), the time course of the concentrations in blood were determined in conjunction with the effect on body temperature. The pharmacokinetics of buspirone and 1-PP were analyzed based on a two-compartment model with metabolite formation. Differences in the pharmacokinetics of buspirone and 1-PP were observed with values for clearance of 13.1 and 8.2 ml/min and for terminal elimination half-life of 25 and 79 min, respectively. At least 26% of the administered dose of buspirone was converted into 1-PP. Complex hypothermic effects versus time profiles were observed, which were successfully analyzed on the basis of a physiological indirect response model with set-point control. Both buspirone and 1-PP behaved as partial agonists relative to R-(+)-8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin (R-8-OH-DPAT) with values of the intrinsic activity of 0.465 and 0.312, respectively. Differences in the potency were observed with values of 17.6 and 304 ng/ml for buspirone and 1-PP, respectively. The results of this analysis show that buspirone and 1-PP behave as partial 5-hydroxytryptamine(1A) agonists in vivo and that following intravenous administration the amount of 1-PP formed is too small to contribute to the hypothermic effect.

A competitive interaction model predicts the effect of WAY-100,635 on the time course of R-(+)-8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin-induced hypothermia

The objective of this investigation was to characterize quantitatively the pharmacodynamic interaction between N-[2-[4-(2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl]ethyl]-N-2-pyridinyl-cyclohexanecarboxamide (WAY-100,635) and R-(+)-8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin (R-8-OH-DPAT) in vivo. The 8-OH-DPAT-induced change in body temperature was used as a pharmacodynamic endpoint. Four groups of rats each received 1 mg/kg 8-OH-DPAT in 5 min during computer-controlled infusions of physiological saline or WAY-100,635, targeted at steady-state concentrations of 20, 85, and 170 ng/ml. Body temperature was monitored continuously with a telemetric system, and frequent blood samples were obtained to determine the pharmacokinetics of both drugs. Large differences in pharmacokinetics were observed between WAY-100,635 and R-8-OH-DPAT, reflected in values of the terminal elimination half-life of 33 and 143 min, respectively. Infusion of WAY-100,635 had no influence on the pharmacokinetics of R-8-OH-DPAT. With regard to the pharmacodynamics, clear antagonism of the R-8-OH-DPAT-induced hypothermia was observed. The complex pharmacological effect versus time profiles of R-8-OH-DPAT were analyzed on the basis of an indirect physiological response model with set point control coupled to a competitive interaction model for an agonist and antagonist acting at a common receptor. This model converged, yielding precise estimates of the pharmacodynamic parameters of both WAY-100,635 and R-8-OH-DPAT, which were independent of the infusion rate of WAY-100,635. The estimated in vivo binding constant of WAY-100,635 was 0.98 ng/ml (2.3 nM), which is very similar to the reported value from in vitro receptor binding assays. The findings of this investigation show that, in contrast to earlier reports in the literature, WAY 100,635 behaves as a pure competitive antagonist at the 5-hydroxytryptamine(1A) receptor in vivo.

A set-point model with oscillatory behavior predicts the time course of 8-OH-DPAT-induced hypothermia

Agonists for the 5-hydroxytryptamine (HT)(1A) receptor induce a hypothermic response that is believed to occur by lowering of the body's set-point temperature. We have developed a physiological model that can be used to predict the complex time course of the hypothermic response after administration of 5-HT(1A) agonists to rats. In the model, 5-HT(1A) agonists exert their effect by changing heat loss through a control mechanism with a thermostat signal that is proportional to the difference between measured and set-point temperature. Agonists exert their effect in a direct concentration-dependent manner, with saturation occurring at higher concentrations. On the basis of simulations, it is shown that, depending on the concentration and the intrinsic efficacy of a 5-HT(1A) agonist, the model shows oscillatory behavior. The model was successfully applied to characterize the complex hypothermic response profiles after administration of the reference 5-HT(1A) agonists R-8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin (R-8-OH-DPAT) and S-8-OH-DPAT. This analysis revealed that the observed difference in effect vs. time profile for these two reference agonists could be explained by a difference in in vivo intrinsic efficacy.

Hyperplasia of proventricular duct epithelium in broilers

Spontaneous non-leukotic tumours of the proventriculus are regarded as rare neoplasms of the digestive tract in domestic fowl. In a broiler flock, however, a high incidence of hyperplasia of glandular tissue in the proventriculus has been observed. The condition was correlated with a rather high mortality and condemnation rate. Macroscopically the proventriculi appeared swollen and had thickened, firm walls. Microscopically the epithelial cells lining the ducts of the proventricular glands showed a marked hyperplasia, and several ducts were conspicuously convoluted and formed prominent stellate lumina. Neither proliferation of glandular epithelial cells into the surrounding tissue nor metastases to other organs were detected, and the condition was classified as a hyperplasia of the duct epithelium. The aetiology of the hyperplasia and the striking mortality is unknown, although the presence of a toxic factor(s) in the litter of the chicken-house cannot be entirely ruled out.

The control of lymphoid leukosis in a flock White Plymouth Rock chickens

Lymphoid leukosis (LL) was successfully controlled in a commercial basic breeding line of White Plymouth Rock chickens. The control method has been developed for breeder flocks and consists of three elements: --In the flock under study, homogenates of embryos from all eggs collected during a number of 14-day periods are tested for the presence of LL viruses. --Only eggs from hens that have been shown not to shed virus in their eggs are used for the production of progeny. The offspring are reared in isolation during the first two months of life, at which time the age-related resistance against tumour formation by LL viruses appears to be sufficiently developed. --The chickens are subsequently inoculated intramuscularly with LL viruses of subgroups A and B transferred to a conventional chicken house. The vaccination raises a solid immunity to horizontal LL virus exposure and, due to the age-related resistance, tumour formation does not follow. No excretion of LL viruses could be detected in three generations of White Plymouth Rock chickens to which the three elements of the control procedure were applied. Clinical disease was not observed in any of the chickens under notice.

Histo-morphometric analysis applied to spleens of Marek's disease virus inoculated chickens

As part of a larger experiment to compare the pathogenic effects of different strains of Marek's disease virus, a counting procedure for tissue components in histological sections is presented which may quantify the relative volumes occupied by the components. The method is demonstrated on spleens taken from 8-weeks-old chickens, treated at one-day-old with a cell-associated pathogenic strain of Marek's disease virus (MDV), a cell-associated vaccine strain, or a MDV-free cell suspension.