Representation of marginalised populations in digital surveillance for notifiable conditions in Australia: a systematic review

AIM

This study aims to establish whether digital surveillance methods for notifiable diseases in Australia collect and report data in relation to marginalised populations.

METHODS

The literature was systematically reviewed to identify primary research studies published between January 2005 and July 2023. Studies were included if they described an Australian digital surveillance system for notifiable conditions. The results were synthesised with a focus on evaluating the collection and reporting of data in relation to marginalised populations.

RESULTS

A total of 13 articles reporting on seven surveillance systems were identified. Influenza and adverse events following immunisation were the two most common notifiable conditions monitored. A total of six surveillance systems encompassing 16 articles reported information on sub-populations. Of these, three surveillance systems (nine articles) included data on marginalised populations.

CONCLUSION

The data collected or reported in relation to sub-groups that characterise diversity in terms of health care needs, access, and marginalised populations are minimal. It is recommended that a set of equity and reporting principles is established for the future creation and use of any digital surveillance system.

The Role of Thyroid Dysfunction in Alzheimer's Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Imbalances in thyroid hormones have been linked with Alzheimer's dementia. Several studies have reported an association between thyroid disorders, such as hyper- or hypothyroidism, with Alzheimer's disease. However, there remains no consensus about the precise role of thyroid dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease. In this study we systematically searched PubMed, Embase and Scopus for clinical studies which reported the prevalence of hyper- or hypothyroidism in people with Alzheimer's disease compared to controls. Meta-analysis was performed to compare thyroid disorder prevalence in Alzheimer's disease and controls. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess the clinical and subclinical thyroid dysfunction, separately. Seven studies, including 1189 people with Alzheimer's disease and 72711 controls, were included in our sample. Hypothyroidism was significantly more prevalent in Alzheimer's disease compared with controls (6.4% vs 2.4%, p=0.01). Subgroup analysis showed that clinical hypothyroidism was not significantly different between Alzheimer's disease compared to controls (10.0% vs 5.3%, p=0.35). There was no difference in the crude overall prevalence of clinical and subclinical hyperthyroidism in Alzheimer's disease versus controls (2.4 vs 1.9%, p=0.73). Our analyses revealed a higher prevalence of hypothyroidism in Alzheimer's disease. Whether this finding is explained by hypothyroidism being a risk factor for, or consequence of, Alzheimer's disease requires longitudinal analysis. Our review supports further work into a potential role for treatment of hypothyroidism in the prevention or delay of Alzheimer's disease.

Development of an artificial intelligence model for predicting the likelihood of human embryo euploidy based on blastocyst images from multiple imaging systems during IVF

STUDY QUESTION

Can an artificial intelligence (AI) model predict human embryo ploidy status using static images captured by optical light microscopy?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Results demonstrated predictive accuracy for embryo euploidy and showed a significant correlation between AI score and euploidy rate, based on assessment of images of blastocysts at Day 5 after IVF.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Euploid embryos displaying the normal human chromosomal complement of 46 chromosomes are preferentially selected for transfer over aneuploid embryos (abnormal complement), as they are associated with improved clinical outcomes. Currently, evaluation of embryo genetic status is most commonly performed by preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A), which involves embryo biopsy and genetic testing. The potential for embryo damage during biopsy, and the non-uniform nature of aneuploid cells in mosaic embryos, has prompted investigation of additional, non-invasive, whole embryo methods for evaluation of embryo genetic status.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A total of 15 192 blastocyst-stage embryo images with associated clinical outcomes were provided by 10 different IVF clinics in the USA, India, Spain and Malaysia. The majority of data were retrospective, with two additional prospectively collected blind datasets provided by IVF clinics using the genetics AI model in clinical practice. Of these images, a total of 5050 images of embryos on Day 5 of in vitro culture were used for the development of the AI model. These Day 5 images were provided for 2438 consecutively treated women who had undergone IVF procedures in the USA between 2011 and 2020. The remaining images were used for evaluation of performance in different settings, or otherwise excluded for not matching the inclusion criteria.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The genetics AI model was trained using static 2-dimensional optical light microscope images of Day 5 blastocysts with linked genetic metadata obtained from PGT-A. The endpoint was ploidy status (euploid or aneuploid) based on PGT-A results. Predictive accuracy was determined by evaluating sensitivity (correct prediction of euploid), specificity (correct prediction of aneuploid) and overall accuracy. The Matthew correlation coefficient and receiver-operating characteristic curves and precision-recall curves (including AUC values), were also determined. Performance was also evaluated using correlation analyses and simulated cohort studies to evaluate ranking ability for euploid enrichment.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Overall accuracy for the prediction of euploidy on a blind test dataset was 65.3%, with a sensitivity of 74.6%. When the blind test dataset was cleansed of poor quality and mislabeled images, overall accuracy increased to 77.4%. This performance may be relevant to clinical situations where confounding factors, such as variability in PGT-A testing, have been accounted for. There was a significant positive correlation between AI score and the proportion of euploid embryos, with very high scoring embryos (9.0-10.0) twice as likely to be euploid than the lowest-scoring embryos (0.0-2.4). When using the genetics AI model to rank embryos in a cohort, the probability of the top-ranked embryo being euploid was 82.4%, which was 26.4% more effective than using random ranking, and ∼13-19% more effective than using the Gardner score. The probability increased to 97.0% when considering the likelihood of one of the top two ranked embryos being euploid, and the probability of both top two ranked embryos being euploid was 66.4%. Additional analyses showed that the AI model generalized well to different patient demographics and could also be used for the evaluation of Day 6 embryos and for images taken using multiple time-lapse systems. Results suggested that the AI model could potentially be used to differentiate mosaic embryos based on the level of mosaicism.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

While the current investigation was performed using both retrospectively and prospectively collected data, it will be important to continue to evaluate real-world use of the genetics AI model. The endpoint described was euploidy based on the clinical outcome of PGT-A results only, so predictive accuracy for genetic status in utero or at birth was not evaluated. Rebiopsy studies of embryos using a range of PGT-A methods indicated a degree of variability in PGT-A results, which must be considered when interpreting the performance of the AI model.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

These findings collectively support the use of this genetics AI model for the evaluation of embryo ploidy status in a clinical setting. Results can be used to aid in prioritizing and enriching for embryos that are likely to be euploid for multiple clinical purposes, including selection for transfer in the absence of alternative genetic testing methods, selection for cryopreservation for future use or selection for further confirmatory PGT-A testing, as required.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

Life Whisperer Diagnostics is a wholly owned subsidiary of the parent company, Presagen Holdings Pty Ltd. Funding for the study was provided by Presagen with grant funding received from the South Australian Government: Research, Commercialisation, and Startup Fund (RCSF). 'In kind' support and embryology expertise to guide algorithm development were provided by Ovation Fertility. 'In kind' support in terms of computational resources provided through the Amazon Web Services (AWS) Activate Program. J.M.M.H., D.P. and M.P. are co-owners of Life Whisperer and Presagen. S.M.D., M.A.D. and T.V.N. are employees or former employees of Life Whisperer. S.M.D, J.M.M.H, M.A.D, T.V.N., D.P. and M.P. are listed as inventors of patents relating to this work, and also have stock options in the parent company Presagen. M.V. sits on the advisory board for the global distributor of the technology described in this study and also received support for attending meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

722 IMPLEMENTATION OF TREATMENT ESCALATION PLANS IN A COMMUNITY PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL

Introduction

Treatment Escalation Plans (TEP) detail appropriate ceilings of care and guide treatment of patients based on shared decision making. Whilst established in many acute trusts, TEP are not frequently used in community mental health hospitals. This is particularly concerning in organic mental health wards, where patients with severe dementia may be transferred to acute hospitals for treatment without consideration about whether this is appropriate. This quality improvement project aimed to develop and implement TEP within a community mental health hospital to support the management of our older patients with severe mental illness.

Methods

We designed a TEP form based on a prototype used in a partner acute trust and evaluated its use on our wards, comprising 20 patients between August–September 2020. We obtained quantitative data on use of TEP, including the length of time from admission to completion, as well as qualitative data from healthcare staff regarding their experience of using TEP.

Results

TEP implementation well received among members of staff. 100% of patients had a TEP in place within 2 weeks of admission. The mean time taken to complete a TEP was reduced from 7.1 days to 3.2 days following inclusion of the TEP proforma in admission packs. There was an improvement in understanding the purpose, comprehensiveness and location of TEP forms during their implementation. The key theme that arose from qualitative analysis of healthcare staff comments was that TEP forms provided clear guidance on appropriateness of escalation of care.

Conclusion

TEP forms offer clear guidance to treating clinicians about the ceilings of care for patients. TEP were successfully implemented in our community mental health hospital and we plan further post-implementation evaluation. We intend to roll out the TEP form across our mental health trust and share findings nationally to promote best practice.

A systematic review of the provision and efficacy of patient and carer information and support (PCIS) interventions for patients with dementia and their informal carers

BACKGROUND

The NHS dementia strategy identifies patient and carer information and support (PCIS) as a core component of gold-standard dementia care. This is the first systematic review of PCIS, performed to analyse the literature and evidence for these interventions.

AIMS

To systematically review literature evaluating the effectiveness of the provision of PCIS for people with dementia and their informal carers, in inpatient and outpatient settings.

METHODS

Searches of four online biomedical databases, accessed in September 2018. Studies were selected if they were: relating to people with dementia or their informal carers, based in inpatient or outpatient settings, published in English-language peer-reviewed journals no earlier than the year 2000 and assessed dementia-related information or social support interventions, by measuring qualitative or quantitative carer or patient-reported outcomes. Standardised data extraction and quality appraisal forms were used.

RESULTS

7 of 43 full-text papers analysed were eligible for analysis. 3 papers were different arms of one original study. Trends were present in the quantitative results towards reduced patient and carer depression and anxiety and the themes in the qualitative analysis were in favour of the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

The studies analysed were too heterogeneous in design, population and outcomes measured to make a conclusive opinion about the efficacy of these interventions. It is surprising that for such a common condition, a gold-standard evidence-based intervention and standardised delivery for provision of PCIS for people living with dementia in the UK does not exist. Further research is therefore vital.

Early changes in bone turnover and inflammatory biomarkers and clinically significant bone mineral density loss over 48 weeks among HIV-infected patients with virological failure of a standard first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen in the SECOND-LINE study

OBJECTIVES

We assessed whether changes at week 12 in markers of bone turnover, inflammation, and immune activation were associated with clinically important (≥ 5%) bone mineral density (BMD) loss from baseline to week 48 at the proximal femur (hip) and lumbar spine in the SECOND-LINE study.

METHODS

We measured concentrations of procollagen type 1 pro-peptide (P1NP), carboxyl-terminal collagen crosslinks (CTX), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), D-dimer, interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), neopterin, and soluble CD14 and 163 at weeks 0, 12, and 48 in 123 SECOND-LINE dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) substudy participants. Linear regression was used to compare changes in biomarkers. Predictors of ≥ 5% BMD loss were examined using multivariable regression.

RESULTS

The mean age was 38 years, the mean CD4 T-cell count was 252 cells/µL and the mean viral load was 4.2 log HIV-1 RNA copies/mL; 56% of participants were female and 47% were randomized to receive a nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitor [N(t)RTI]-based regimen [91% (53/58) were randomized to receive a tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-containing regimen]. Over 48 weeks, 71% in the N(t)RTI arm experienced ≥ 5% hip BMD loss vs. 29% in the raltegravir arm (P = 0.001). Week 12 changes in P1NP and CTX were significantly greater among patients experiencing ≥ 5% hip BMD loss, patients randomized to N(t)RTI, and male patients. Predictors of ≥ 5% hip BMD loss at week 48 were P1NP increase [odds ratio (OR) 5.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-27; P < 0.043]; N(t)RTI randomization (OR 6.7; 95% CI 2.0-27.1; P < 0.003), being African, higher baseline CD4 T cell count , and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

In a diverse cohort of viraemic HIV-infected patients, switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated with clinically significant BMD loss, which was correlated with an early increase in P1NP. Measurement of P1NP may facilitate timely interventions to reduce rapid BMD loss among at-risk patients.

Economic impact assessment of foot-and-mouth disease burden and control in pastoral local dairy cattle production systems in Northern Nigeria: A cross-sectional survey

Milk has been envisaged as a major source of high-quality protein and bioavailable nutrients to humans. Its production is constraint by foot and mouth disease (FMD), a contagious viral disease of very high economic importance worldwide. This study was aimed at assessing the economic impact of FMD in pastoral dairy cattle herds in Nigeria and determines returns to investments in its control to better inform policy decisions. An interview questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted in 660 nomadic and agro-pastoral dairy cattle herds in 2019. Economic impact analyses were conducted using the total economic cost and benefit-cost analysis models. Of the 660 pastoralists enrolled, 92.6% (n = 611) participated. Nomadic pastoralists constituted 50.7% (n = 310) of the respondents while 49.3% (n = 301) were agro-pastoralists. Most of the respondents (66.4%, n = 406) had no formal education. The value of visible losses to the herders was estimated at USD 15,591,694.30 and the cost of control by treatment of secondary infections was USD 463,673.70. The economic impact of FMD due to production losses and costs of treatment to pastoralists was estimated to be USD 16,055,368.00. Return on investment in FMD control was positive with a benefit-cost ratio of 33.6. The estimated total economic costs due to FMD have indicated that it is a disease of high economic importance to dairy production herds and must be controlled to assure food security, local incomes to herders, and protein requirement of human population, especially the children in FMD endemic countries.

A systematic review of specialist inpatient dementia care services versus standard inpatient dementia care in acute hospitals

BACKGROUND

Specialist inpatient dementia units (SIDU) have been developed to address adverse outcomes often experienced by people living with dementia admitted to acute hospitals. However, the evidence base of their effectiveness remains limited.

AIM

To review the current literature to establish the comparative effectiveness of acute hospital SIDU vs. standard ward care (SWC).

METHODS

We did an online search of 12 biomedical databases from inception to 31st October 2017. Studies of inpatients with any form of dementia in acute hospitals, published in English language peer-reviewed journals, using experimental, observational or qualitative study designs, comparing SIDU with SWC and which measured any qualitative or quantitative outcome of the patient or carer experience were included in the search criteria. We used a standardised data extraction and appraisal form.

RESULTS

Three of 46 full-text studies evaluated were suitable for analysis. Due to study heterogeneity, pooled odds ratios were only possible for mortality [OR 1.06 (CI 1.0-1.4)]. Otherwise, a narrative synthesis was performed. Although quantitative measures of length of stay, mortality and behavioural and psychiatric symptoms of dementia are not significantly lower, SIDU are associated with greater patient and carer satisfaction, reduced readmission rates, more accurate and comprehensive assessment processes, documentation of resuscitation decisions, and increased rates of discharge to the patient's own home.

CONCLUSIONS

Although SIDU may be associated with improved care outcomes, the current evidence of their effectiveness is markedly limited. Further research and service evaluation of SIDU as a method for providing high-quality dementia care in acute NHS Trusts is needed.

PROSPERO

CRD42017078364.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and survival among people with hepatitis C: An international study

This study evaluates trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and survival in three settings, prior to introduction of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. HCV notifications from British Columbia (BC), Canada; New South Wales (NSW), Australia; and Scotland (1995-2011/2012/2013, respectively) were linked to HCC diagnosis data via hospital admissions (2001-2012/2013/2014, respectively) and mortality (1995-2013/2014/2015, respectively). Age-standardized HCC incidence rates were evaluated, associated factors were assessed using Cox regression, and median survival time after HCC diagnosis was calculated. Among 58 487, 84 529 and 31 924 people with HCV in BC, NSW and Scotland, 734 (1.3%), 1045 (1.2%) and 345 (1.1%) had an HCC diagnosis. Since mid-2000s, HCC diagnosis numbers increased in all jurisdictions. Age-standardized HCC incidence rates remained stable in BC and Scotland and increased in NSW. The strongest predictor of HCC diagnosis was older age [birth <1945, aHR in BC 5.74, 95% CI 4.84, 6.82; NSW 9.26, 95% CI 7.93, 10.82; Scotland 12.55, 95% CI 9.19, 17.15]. Median survival after HCC diagnosis remained stable in BC (0.8 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2011) and NSW (0.9 years in 2001-2006 and 2007-2013) and improved in Scotland (0.7 years in 2001-2006 to 1.5 years in 2007-2014). Across the settings, HCC burden increased, individual-level risk of HCC remained stable or increased, and HCC survival remained extremely low. These findings highlight the minimal impact of HCC prevention and management strategies during the interferon-based HCV treatment era and form the basis for evaluating the impact of DAA therapy in the coming years.

Ongoing incident hepatitis C virus infection among people with a history of injecting drug use in an Australian prison setting, 2005-2014: The HITS-p study

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission is high in prisons. This study investigated trends in HCV incidence and associated factors among a cohort of prisoners with a history of injecting drug use in New South Wales, Australia. Data were available from the Hepatitis C Incidence and Transmission Study-prisons (HITS-p) from 2005 to 2014. Temporal trends in HCV incidence were evaluated. Factors associated with time to HCV seroconversion among people with ongoing injecting was assessed using Cox proportional hazards. Among 320 antibody-negative participants with a history of injecting drug use (mean age 26; 72% male), 62% (n=197) reported injecting drug use during follow-up. Overall, 93 infections were observed. HCV incidence was 11.4/100 person-years in the overall population and 6.3/100 person-years among the continually imprisoned population. A stable trend in HCV incidence was observed. Among the overall population with ongoing injecting during follow-up, ≥weekly injecting drug use frequency was independently associated with time to HCV seroconversion. Among continuously imprisoned injectors with ongoing injecting during follow-up, needle/syringe sharing was independently associated with time to HCV seroconversion. This study demonstrates that prison is a high-risk environment for acquisition of HCV infection. Needle and syringe sharing was associated with HCV infection among continually imprisoned participants, irrespective of frequency of injecting or the type of drug injected. These findings highlight the need for the evaluation of improved HCV prevention strategies in prison, including needle/syringe programmes and HCV treatment.

Life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting combination antiretroviral therapy: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Life expectancy is an important indicator informing decision making in policies relating to HIV-infected people. Studies estimating life expectancy after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) have noted differences between income regions. The objective of our study was to perform a meta-analysis to assess life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting cART, and to quantify differences between low/middle- and high-income countries.

METHODS

Eight cohort studies estimating life expectancy in HIV-positive people initiating cART aged ≥ 14 years using the abridged life table method were identified. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimated outcomes, overall and by income region. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed with the I² statistic. We estimated additional years of life expected after starting cART at ages 20 and 35 years.

RESULTS

Overall life expectancy in high-income countries was an additional 43.3 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 42.5-44.2 years] and 32.2 years (95% CI 30.9-33.5 years) at ages 20 and 35 years, respectively, and 28.3 (95% CI 23.3-33.3) and 25.6 (95% CI 22.1-29.2) additional years, respectively, in low/middle-income countries. In low/middle-income countries, life expectancy after starting cART at age 20 years was an additional 22.9 years (95% CI 18.4-27.5 years) for men and 33.0 years (95% CI 30.4-35.6 years) for women, but was similar in the two sexes in high-income countries. In all income regions, life expectancy after starting cART increased over calendar time.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting cART has improved over time. Monitoring life expectancy into the future is important to assess how changes to cART guidelines will affect patient long-term outcomes.

A poised fragment library enables rapid synthetic expansion yielding the first reported inhibitors of PHIP(2), an atypical bromodomain

Research into the chemical biology of bromodomains has been driven by the development of acetyl-lysine mimetics. The ligands are typically anchored by binding to a highly conserved asparagine residue. Atypical bromodomains, for which the asparagine is mutated, have thus far proven elusive targets, including PHIP(2) whose parent protein, PHIP, has been linked to disease progression in diabetes and cancers. The PHIP(2) binding site contains a threonine in place of asparagine, and solution screening have yielded no convincing hits. We have overcome this hurdle by combining the sensitivity of X-ray crystallography, used as the primary fragment screen, with a strategy for rapid follow-up synthesis using a chemically-poised fragment library, which allows hits to be readily modified by parallel chemistry both peripherally and in the core. Our approach yielded the first reported hit compounds of PHIP(2) with measurable IC50 values by an AlphaScreen competition assay. The follow-up libraries of four poised fragment hits improved potency into the sub-mM range while showing good ligand efficiency and detailed structural data.

Hospitalisation rates and associated factors in community-based cohorts of HIV-infected and -uninfected gay and bisexual men

OBJECTIVES

There is evidence that HIV-positive patients are suffering from a greater burden of morbidity as they age due to nonAIDS-related complications. To date it has been difficult to determine what part of this excess risk is due to the health effects of HIV, its treatment or to lifestyle factors common to gay and bisexual men (GBM). We calculated overall and cause-specific hospitalisation rates and risk factors for hospitalisations in HIV-negative and HIV-positive cohorts of GBM and compare these with rates in the general male population.

METHODS

We conducted a record linkage study, linking two cohorts of HIV-negative (n = 1325) and HIV-positive (n = 557) GBM recruited in Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia with the NSW hospital discharge data register. We compared rates of hospitalisation in the two cohorts and risk factors for hospitalisation using random-effects Poisson regression methods. Hospitalisation rates for each cohort were further compared with those in the general male population using indirect standardisation.

RESULTS

We observed 2032 hospitalisations in the HIV-negative cohort during 13,016 person-years (PYs) [crude rate: 15.6/100 PYs (95% CI: 14.9-16.3)] and 2130 hospitalisations in the HIV-positive cohort during 5571 PYs [crude rate: 38.2/100 PYs (95% CI: 36.6-39.9)]. HIV-positive individuals had an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with the HIV-negative individuals [adjusted-IRR: 2.34 (95% CI: 1.91-2.86)] and the general population [SHR: 1.45 (95% CI: 1.33-1.59)]. Hospitalisation rates were lower in the HIV-negative cohort compared with the general population [SHR: 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78)]. The primary causes of hospitalisation differed between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-positive GBM continue to experience excess morbidity compared with HIV-negative GBM men and the general population. HIV-negative GBM had lower morbidity compared with the general male population suggesting that GBM identity does not confer excess risk.

Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Comparison of Once-Daily Efavirenz (400 mg vs. 600 mg) in Treatment-Naïve HIV-Infected Patients: Results of the ENCORE1 Study

Daily efavirenz 400 mg (EFV400) was virologically noninferior to 600 mg (EFV600) at 48 weeks in treatment‐naïve patients. We evaluated EFV400 and EFV600 pharmacokinetics (NONMEM v. 7.2), assessing patient demographics and genetic polymorphisms (CYP2B6, CYP2A6, CYP3A4, NR1I3) as covariates and explored relationships with efficacy (plasma HIV‐RNA (pVL) <200 copies/mL) and safety outcomes at 48 weeks in 606 randomized ENCORE1 patients (female = 32%, African = 37%, Asian = 33%; EFV400 = 311, EFV600 = 295). CYP2B6 516G>T/983T>C/CYP2A6*9B/*17 and weight were associated with efavirenz CL/F. Exposure was significantly lower for EFV400 (geometric mean ratio, GMR; 90% confidence interval, CI: 0.73 (0.68–0.78)) but 97% (EFV400) and 98% (EFV600) of evaluable pVL was <200 copies/mL at 48 weeks (P = 0.802). Four of 20 patients with mid‐dose concentrations <1.0 mg/L had pVL ≥200 copies/mL (EFV400 = 1; EFV600 = 3). Efavirenz exposure was similar between those with and without efavirenz‐related side effects (GMR; 90% CI: 0.95 (0.88–1.02)). HIV suppression was comparable between doses despite significantly lower EFV400 exposure. Comprehensive evaluation of efavirenz pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics revealed important limitations in the accepted threshold concentration.

Lower life expectancy among people with an HCV notification: a population-based linkage study

Among people with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, liver disease-related deaths have risen over the last 20 years. Life expectancy has not been estimated in this population. HCV notifications (mandatory notification of anti-HCV-positive serology since 1991) reported to the New South Wales Health Department from 1992 to 2006 were linked to cause of death data. Abridged life tables were constructed from age-specific mortality rates. Life expectancy from ages 18-70 years for non-drug-related mortality causes was estimated using competing risk methods and compared to the general population of Australia. The cohort comprised 81 644 individuals with an HCV notification, with median follow-up of 7.6 years. Median age at notification was 34 years [interquartile range (IQR) 28-42] and 63% were male. Between 1992 and 2006, 4607 deaths occurred. Median age at liver- and drug-related death among males was 51 (IQR 45-66) and 36 (IQR 31-42) years, respectively, and among females was 63 (IQR 49-74) and 36 (IQR 30-41) years, respectively. In each year of follow-up before 2000, 15-21% of deaths were liver- and 30-39% were drug-related. After 2000, liver-related deaths increased to 20-26% of deaths in each year and drug-related deaths decreased to 13-19%. Excluding drug-related causes of death, life expectancy was lowered by an average of 4.2 (SD ± 1.0) and 5.4 (SD ± 0.7) years for males and females, respectively. Among people with an HCV notification, an increasing proportion of deaths are liver-related. Following removal of drug-related mortality, life expectancy in this population remained considerably lower, compared with the general population.

Small molecule induced reactivation of mutant p53 in cancer cells

The p53 cancer mutant Y220C is an excellent paradigm for rescuing the function of conformationally unstable p53 mutants because it has a unique surface crevice that can be targeted by small-molecule stabilizers. Here, we have identified a compound, PK7088, which is active in vitro: PK7088 bound to the mutant with a dissociation constant of 140 μM and raised its melting temperature, and we have determined the binding mode of a close structural analogue by X-ray crystallography. We showed that PK7088 is biologically active in cancer cells carrying the Y220C mutant by a battery of tests. PK7088 increased the amount of folded mutant protein with wild-type conformation, as monitored by immunofluorescence, and restored its transcriptional functions. It induced p53-Y220C-dependent growth inhibition, cell-cycle arrest and apoptosis. Most notably, PK7088 increased the expression levels of p21 and the proapoptotic NOXA protein. PK7088 worked synergistically with Nutlin-3 on up-regulating p21 expression, whereas Nutlin-3 on its own had no effect, consistent with its mechanism of action. PK7088 also restored non-transcriptional apoptotic functions of p53 by triggering nuclear export of BAX to the mitochondria. We suggest a set of criteria for assigning activation of p53.

Click JAHAs: conformationally restricted ferrocene-based histone deacetylase inhibitors

The ferrocene analogue 4b had an IC₅₀ = 4 nM (HDAC1), 180 nM (HDAC8) and was effective in a Xenopus model of tubulin deacetylation. Analogue 4a displayed mainly μM IC₅₀ values against HDACs apart from HDAC6 (IC₅₀ = 69 nM).

Trends in incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma after diagnosis of hepatitis B or C infection: a population-based cohort study, 1992-2007

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined trends in the incidence of HCC among a population-based cohort of people infected with HBV or HCV. HBV and HCV cases notified to the New South Wales Health Department between 1992 and 2007 were linked to the Central Cancer Registry, Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages, and National HIV/AIDS Registries. Crude HCC incidence rates were estimated using person-time methodology. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using the 2001 Australian population. Trends in incidence were examined using join point regression models. Between 1992 and 2007, 1201 people had a linked HCC record: 556 of those with HBV; 592 with HCV; 45 with HBV/HCV co-infection; and 8 with HIV co-infection. The overall age-standardized HCC incidence rates declined non-significantly from 148.0 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 63.7, 287.4) per 100,000 population in 1995 to 101.2 (95% CI 67.3, 144.6) in 2007 among the HBV monoinfected group and significantly from 151.8 (95% CI 62.4, 299.8) per 100,000 population to 75.3 (95% CI 50.8, 105.5) among the HCV monoinfected group. However, incidence rates in the HCV monoinfected group progressively increased from the period 1992-1997 to 2004-2007 when adjusted for age, sex, and birth cohort, and the total number of cases per annum continued to increase. Despite declines in the age-adjusted incidence rates of HCC over time, the absolute number of cases increased likely due to the ageing cohort and an increasing prevalence of both hepatitis B and C in Australia.

Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of JAHAs: Ferrocene-Based Histone Deacetylase Inhibitors

N(1)-Hydroxy-N(8)-ferrocenyloctanediamide, JAHA (7), an organometallic analogue of SAHA containing a ferrocenyl group as a phenyl bioisostere, displays nanomolar inhibition of class I HDACs, excellent selectivity over class IIa HDACs, and anticancer action in intact cells (IC(50) = 2.4 μM, MCF7 cell line). Molecular docking studies of 7 in HDAC8 (a,b) suggested that the ferrocenyl moiety in 7 can overlap with the aryl cap of SAHA and should display similar HDAC inhibition, which was borne out in an in vitro assay (IC(50) values against HDAC8 (μM, SD in parentheses): SAHA, 1.41 (0.15); 7, 1.36 (0.16). Thereafter, a small library of related JAHA analogues has been synthesized, and preliminary SAR studies are presented. IC(50) values as low as 90 pM toward HDAC6 (class IIb) have been determined, highlighting the excellent potential of JAHAs as bioinorganic probes.

Synthesis and evaluation of metallocene containing methylidene-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-ones as kinase inhibitors

(E)- and (Z)-3-Ferrocenylmethylidene-1,3-dihydro-2H-indol-2-ones 1 have been structurally modified in order to explore SAR against a range of kinases. Of note is the submicromolar to low micromolar inhibition of DYRK3 and 4 by a number of complexes. Screening using Xenopus embryos showed some of the compounds to have potent antiangiogenisis activity.

Modelling and calibration of the hepatitis C epidemic in Australia

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Australia is predominantly transmitted through injecting drug use. A reduction in the heroin supply in Australia in late 2000 and early 2001 may have impacted the number of injecting drug users (IDUs) and the number of new hepatitis C infections. This paper updates estimates of HCV incidence between 1960 and 2005 and models long-term sequelae from infection. Outcomes among those with HCV were also recently assessed in a linkage study assessing cancer and causes of death following HCV diagnosis in New South Wales. Linkage study outcomes have been used here to calibrate modelled outcomes. Mathematical models were used to estimate HCV incidence among IDUs, migrants to Australia from high HCV-prevalence countries, and other HCV exposure groups. Recent trends in numbers of IDUs were based on indicators of injecting drug use. A natural history of HCV model was applied to estimate the prevalence of HCV in the population. Model predicted endpoints that were calibrated against the NSW linkage data over the period 1995—2002 were: (i) incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); (ii) opioid overdose deaths; (iii) liver-related deaths; and (iv) all-cause mortality. Modelled estimates and the linkage data show reasonably good calibration for HCC cases and all-cause mortality. The estimated HCC incidence was increased from 70 cases in 1995 to 100 cases in 2002. All-cause mortality estimated at 1000 in 1995 increased to 1600 in 2002. Comparison of annual opioid deaths shows some agreement. However, the models underestimate the rate of increase observed between 1995 and 1999 and do not entirely capture the rapid decrease in overdose deaths from 2000 onwards. The linkage data showed a peak of overdose deaths at 430 in 1999 compared to 320 estimated by the models. Comparison of observed liver deaths with the modelled numbers showed poor agreement. A good agreement would require an increase in liver deaths from the assumed 2 to 5% per annum following cirrhosis in the models. Mathematical models suggest that HCV incidence decreased from a peak of 14,000 infections in 1999 to 9700 infections in 2005, largely attributable to a reduction in injecting drug use. The poor agreement between projected and linked liver deaths could reflect differing coding of causes of deaths, underestimates of the numbers of people with cirrhosis following HCV, or underestimates of rates of liver death following cirrhosis. The reasonably good agreement between most of the modelled estimates with observed linkage data provides some support for the assumptions used in the models.

Achalasia esophagus; presenting as acute air way obstruction

Acute airway obstruction from mega-esophagus is a rare presentation of achalasia. Mega-esophagus is generally considered when the transverse width of the esophagus is more than 7 cm. A 78 year old lady presented with longstanding history of productive cough and nocturnal dyspnoea. She was seen in the emergency department with acute exacerbation of dyspnoea after a bout of vomiting, containing semi-solid food with foetid smell. Her respiratory status deteriorated rapidly with onset of stridor, and cyanosis. Chest x-ray showed widening of mediastinum due to dilated esophagus with air-fluid level. Prompt, repeated, upper respiratory tract suction was carried out. A wide bore nasogastric tube was introduced, esophagus was decompressed with a gush of air and fluid, relieving the respiratory distress. This case illustrates an unusual presentation of achalasia underscoring the need for urgent, life-saving esophageal decompression. Hypotheses, regarding the mechanism of airway compromise, as well as, treatment options are reviewed.

High incidence of hepatitis C virus reinfection within a cohort of injecting drug users

A retrospective cohort study was established of injecting drug users (IDUs) to assess evidence for hepatitis C virus (HCV) protective immunity through a comparison of incidence of initial HCV infection and HCV reinfection. Incidence of initial HCV infection was determined among HCV seronegative IDUs, and HCV reinfection determined among IDUs with newly acquired HCV infection, HCV viraemia and subsequent HCV RNA clearance. Serum was available for HCV RNA analysis from stored samples taken at the time of prior blood-borne virus screening. Potential HCV reinfection was defined as a positive HCV RNA following at least one negative HCV RNA. Incidence of initial HCV infection was 17/100 person-years (95% CI, 14-20/100 person-years). The incidence of potential HCV reinfection was 42/100 person-years (95% CI, 25-61/100 person-years), and after excluding cases without a change in HCV genotype and less than three consecutive HCV RNA negative assessment, incidence of reinfection was 31/100 person-years (95% CI, 17-62/100 person-years). Following adjustment for HCV risk behaviour variables the incidence rate ratio of HCV reinfection to initial infection was 1.11 (P = 0.8). Several cases of HCV reinfection appear to have developed persistent infection.