Uncovering COVID-19 infection determinants in Portugal: towards an evidence-based spatial susceptibility index to support epidemiological containment policies

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 caused the largest pandemic of the twenty-first century forcing the adoption of containment policies all over the world. Many studies on COVID-19 health determinants have been conducted, mainly using multivariate methods and geographic information systems (GIS), but few attempted to demonstrate how knowing social, economic, mobility, behavioural, and other spatial determinants and their effects can help to contain the disease. For example, in mainland Portugal, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) were primarily dependent on epidemiological indicators and ignored the spatial variation of susceptibility to infection.

METHODS

We present a data-driven GIS-multicriteria analysis to derive a spatial-based susceptibility index to COVID-19 infection in Portugal. The cumulative incidence over 14 days was used in a stepwise multiple linear regression as the target variable along potential determinants at the municipal scale. To infer the existence of thresholds in the relationships between determinants and incidence the most relevant factors were examined using a bivariate Bayesian change point analysis. The susceptibility index was mapped based on these thresholds using a weighted linear combination.

RESULTS

Regression results support that COVID-19 spread in mainland Portugal had strong associations with factors related to socio-territorial specificities, namely sociodemographic, economic and mobility. Change point analysis revealed evidence of nonlinearity, and the susceptibility classes reflect spatial dependency. The spatial index of susceptibility to infection explains with accuracy previous and posterior infections. Assessing the NPI levels in relation to the susceptibility map points towards a disagreement between the severity of restrictions and the actual propensity for transmission, highlighting the need for more tailored interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

This article argues that NPI to contain COVID-19 spread should consider the spatial variation of the susceptibility to infection. The findings highlight the importance of customising interventions to specific geographical contexts due to the uneven distribution of COVID-19 infection determinants. The methodology has the potential for replication at other geographical scales and regions to better understand the role of health determinants in explaining spatiotemporal patterns of diseases and promoting evidence-based public health policies.

Accessibility to primary health care in low-density regions. A case study: NUTS III - Baixo Alentejo - Portugal

This study diagnosed the situation regarding the physical accessibility of the resident population to primary health care, based on the characteristics of the population served, their spatial distribution in the territory, based on space-time analysis. Thus, bearing the different means of transport available and the specific features of a low-density territory, we considered several mobility profiles under analysis, and selected the Baixo Alentejo as the study area. In methodological terms, besides using the location of primary health facilities and their areas of influence, the use of the road network and its restrictions, we selected the use the new 1x1 km grid, recently implemented throughout the EU (European Union), instead of using the statistical units or administrative boundaries. Its advantages allow overcoming some of the issues of the usual base cartography. The final results can be divided into two groups: conclusions related to the methodologies used and conclusions related to the accessibility of primary health care equipment in the study area.

Accessibility to urgent and emergency care services in low-density territories: the case of Baixo Alentejo, Portugal

Access to health care is a sensitive issue in low population density territories, as these areas tend to have a lower level of service provision. One dimension of access is accessibility. This paper focuses on measuring the accessibility to urgent and emergency care services in the Portuguese region of Baixo Alentejo, a territory characterized by low population density. Data for the calculation of accessibility is the road network, and the methodology considers the application of a two-level network analyst method: time-distance by own mean (car or taxi) to the urgent care services and the time distance to emergency services as a way to get assistance and to go to urgent care services. While urgent care accessibility meets the requirements stipulated in the Integrated Medical Emergency System's current legislative framework, the simulation of different scenarios of potential accessibility shows intra-regional disparities. Some territories have a low level of accessibility. Older adults, the poorly educated, and low-income population, also have the lowest levels of accessibility, which translates into dually disadvantageous situation since the potential users of emergency services are most likely to belong to this group of citizens.

From Livable Communities to Livable Metropolis: Challenges for Urban Mobility in Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Portugal)

Urban mobility plays an important role in addressing urban livability. The complexification and dispersion of travel due to the improvement of transport and the multiplication of our daily living places underline the relevance of multilevel territorial planning, recognizing that the knowledge of local differences is essential for more effective urban policies. This paper aims (1) to comprehend conceptually how urban mobility contributes to the urban livability from the local to metropolitan level and (2) to assess the previous relation toward a livable metropolis based on the readily available statistics for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Hence, a triangulation between conceptual, political/operative, and quantitative/monitoring approaches is required. The methodology follows four steps: (1) literature review focusing on the quantification of urban mobility within the urban livability approach; (2) data collection from the Portuguese statistics system; (3) data analysis and results, using principal component analysis (PCA) followed by cluster analysis (CA); (4) discussion and conclusions. In Portugal, although it is implicit, consistency is evident between the premises of recent urban mobility policies and respective planning instruments, such as the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMP), and the premises of urban livability as an urban movement. Focusing on the national statistics system, the available indicators that meet our quality criteria are scarce and represent a reduced number of domains. Even so, they allow identifying intra-metropolitan differences in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) that could support multilevel planning instruments. The results identified five principal components related to commuting at the local and intermunicipal level, including car use as well as social and environmental externalities, and they reorganized the 18 LMA municipalities into eight groups, clearly isolating Lisbon, the capital, from the others. The identification of sensitive territories and respective problems based on urban livability principles is fundamental for an effective urban planning from livable communities to livable metropolis.

“Geografias” do acesso dos idosos aos cuidados de saúde primários na Área Metropolitana de Lisboa, Portugal - um território de diferenças

Resumo Vários autores têm refletido sobre a questão do acesso aos serviços de saúde, considerando a existência de várias dimensões, nas quais se inclui a disponibilidade e a acessibilidade. No contexto de envelhecimento que caracteriza as sociedades, a população idosa precisa de mais cuidados de saúde, e a acessibilidade a essas unidades assume importância acrescida. O objetivo do estudo é caracterizar o acesso da população idosa aos serviços de saúde, confrontando as possibilidades decorrentes da oferta de serviços com os padrões de procura. Do confronto entre oferta e procura resulta a possibilidade de identificar as dinâmicas intrarregionais e associá-las às diferentes condições socioeconômicas dos idosos, ao seu enquadramento familiar, modo de transporte e tipo de serviço. Esta abordagem considera duas fases metodológicas: o cálculo do potencial de cobertura populacional das unidades de cuidados primários, considerando a acessibilidade física recorrendo aos modos pedonal e rodoviário; e o confronto desses valores com a procura dos serviços, determinada a partir de inquéritos realizados aos residentes. Concluiu-se que, apesar dos equipamentos de saúde prestadores de cuidados primários terem sido programados como serviço de proximidade, a forma de prestação do serviço, as características socioeconômicas da população idosa e o modelo de urbanização apontam para diferenças relevantes no contexto da Área Metropolitana de Lisboa.