The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying-the head and neck cancer model

PURPOSE

The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model.

METHODS

An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data.

RESULTS

The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.

Predictors of Mortality in Living Donor Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Egypt has the highest prevalence of the world hepatitis C virus (HCV) load. Hence, the problem of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) is considered a huge burden on the community. Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is the only source of donation in Egypt till now. Survival rates had shown significant improvement in the past decades. This study provides analysis of the mortality rates and possible predictors of mortality following LDLT. It also aids in developing a practical and easy-to-apply risk index for prediction of early mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study is a retrospective study that was designed to analyze data from 128 adult patients with ESLD who underwent LDLT in the Liver Transplantation Unit at Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University. Early and late mortality were identified. All potential risk factors were tested using univariate regression for association with early and late mortality. Significant variables were then entered into a multivariable logistic regression model for identifying the predictors for mortality.

RESULTS

Sepsis was the most common cause of early mortality. Early mortality and 1-year mortality were 29 (23%) and 23 (18%), respectively. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, intraoperative packed red blood corpuscles (RBCs), and duration of intensive care unit (ICU) stay were found to be independently associated with early mortality.

CONCLUSION

A MELD score >20, intraoperative transfusion >8 units of packed RBCs, and ICU stay >9 days are three independent predictors of early mortality. Their incorporation into a combined Risk Index can be used to improve outcomes of LDLT.

Different Score Systems to Predict Mortality in Living Donor Liver Transplantation: Which Is the Winner? The Experience of an Egyptian Center for Living Donor Liver Transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Many scoring systems have been proposed to predict the outcome of deceased donor liver transplantation. However, their impact on the outcome in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has not yet been elucidated. This study sought to assess performance of preoperative Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting postoperative mortality in LDLT and to compare it with other scores: MELDNa, United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease (UKELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio (MESO), updated MELD, donor age-MELD (D-MELD) and integrated MELD (iMELD).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from 86 adult Egyptian patients who underwent LDLT in a single center. Preoperative MELD, MELDNa, MESO, UKELD, updated MELD, D-MELD, and iMELD were calculated. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the performance of MELD and other scores in predicting postoperative mortality at 3 months (early) and 12 months.

RESULTS

Among the 86 patients, mean age 48 ± 7 years, 76 (88%) were of male sex and 27 (31.4%) had died. Preoperative MELD failed to predict early mortality (AUC = 0.63; P = .066). Comparing preoperative MELD with other scores, all other scores had better predictive ability (P < .05), with D-MELD on the top of the list (AUC = 0.68, P = .016), followed closely by UKELD (AUC = 0.67, P = .025). After that were iMELD, MESO, and MELDNa with the same predictive performance (AUC = 0.65; P < .05); updated MELD had the lowest prediction (AUC = 0.640; P = .04). Moreover, all scores failed to predict mortality at 12 months (P > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative MELD failed to predict either early or 1-year mortality after LDLT. D-MELD, UKELD, MELDNa, iMELD, and MESO could be used as better predictors of early mortality than MELD; however, we need to develop an effective score system to predict mortality after LDLT.

Intra-operative Ultrasound-guided Thrombectomy and Thrombolysis for Post-operative Portal Vein Thrombosis in Living Liver Donors

There are few reports of portal vein thrombosis among living donor liver transplant donors and no published data on the management of this event. In this report, we present our experience in the diagnosis and management of this rare complication in two living donor liver transplantation donors who developed post-operative portal vein thrombosis. Both cases were successfully managed with intra-operative ultrasound-guided thrombectomy, vein patch venoplasty, and catheter-directed thrombolysis. The two donors are symptom-free two years after the event.

Microencapsulation Approach for Orally Extended Delivery of Glipizide: In vitro and in vivo Evaluation

Glipizide is an effective antidiabetic agent, however, it suffers from relatively short biological half-life. To solve this encumbrance, it is a prospective candidate for fabricating glipizide extended release microcapsules. Microencapsulation of glipizde with a coat of alginate alone or in combination with chitosan or carbomer 934P was prepared employing ionotropic gelation process. The prepared microcapsules were evaluated in vitro by microscopical examination, determination of the particle size, yield and microencapsulation efficiency. The filled capsules were assessed for content uniformity and drug release characteristics. Stability study of the optimised formulas was carried out at three different temperatures over 12 weeks. In vivo bioavailability study and hypoglycemic activity of C9 microcapsules were done on albino rabbits. All formulas achieved high yield, microencapsulation efficiency and extended t_1/2. C9 and C19 microcapsules attained the most optimised results in all tests and complied with the dissolution requirements for extended release dosage forms. These two formulas were selected for stability studies. C9 exhibited longer shelf-life and hence was chosen for in vivo studies. C9 microcapsules showed an improvement in the drug bioavailability and significant hypoglycemic activity compared to immediate release tablets (Minidiab^® 5 mg). The optimised microcapsule formulation developed was found to produce extended antidiabetic activity.

Outcome of living donor liver transplantation for Egyptian patients with hepatitis C (genotype 4)-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) represents a challenging issue due to universal viral recurrence and invasion into the graft, although the incidence of histological recurrence, risk factors, and survival rates are still controversial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Recurrence of HCV was studied in 38 of 53 adult patients who underwent LDLT.

RESULTS

Recipient and graft survivals were 86.6% at the end of the follow-up which was comparable to literature reports for deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT). Clinical HCV recurrence was observed in 10/38 patients (26.3%). Four patients developed mild fibrosis with a mean fibrosis score of 0.6 and mean grade of histological activity index (HAI) of 7.1. None of the recipients developed allograft cirrhosis during the mean follow-up period of 16 +/- 8.18 months (range, 4-35 months). Estimated and actual graft volumes were negatively correlated with the incidence and early clinical HCV recurrence. None of the other risk factors were significantly correlated with clinical HCV recurrence: gender, donor and recipient ages, pretransplantation Child-Pugh or model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, pre- and postoperative viremia, immunosuppressive drugs, pulse steroid therapy, and preoperative anti-HBc status.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative patient and graft survival rates for HCV (genotype 4)-related cirrhosis were more or less comparable to DDLT reported in the literature. Clinical HCV recurrence after LDLT in our study was low. Small graft volume was a significant risk factor for HCV recurrence. A longer follow-up and a larger number of patients are required to clarify these issues.

A new system for the assessment of diabetic foot planter pressure

Most skin injuries in neuropathy-type diabetic foot patients occur on the planter soft tissue at sites of abnormally high pressure values. If not detected and treated early enough, these localized sites are likely to develop skin breakdown and ulceration, which puts the patient at higher risks including the need for amputation. Current diagnostic techniques, such as CT and MRI, are primarily used for assessing later stage patients but are not used for screening. In this work, we report a new system for the assessment of planter pressure distribution. The system is easy to use, inexpensive, and may provide the needed accuracy to become a screening and ulceration risk assessment device. The method used is based on the "blanching" effect of tissue that occurs when it is under pressure. Using a standard optical scanner, we acquire the footprint under body weight and map the resulting blanching to different intensity levels. Different intensity levels are mapped to different color codes to obtain pressure distribution maps. These maps can be used by the clinician to identify high risk sites to help prescribe the necessary intervention. Initial testing of the system has demonstrated encouraging preliminary results.

Donor Outcomes in Right Lobe Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation: Single-Center Experience in Egypt

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is an alternative source of organs for patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) in absence of deceased donor LT. In LDLT the greatest concern is donor safety. Our objective was to evaluate the outcome of donors after right lobe liver donation in a single LT center in Egypt.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Fifty LDL resections were performed from 2001 to 2004. The mean donor age was 29.2 +/- 6.4 years. Residual liver volume was 41.1 +/- 4.5%. Mean operative time was 560 +/- 62.2 minutes; mean ICU stay, less than 24 hours; mean hospital stay, 15.4 +/- 7.7 days; and mean follow-up period, 6 months.

RESULTS

There was no mortality. The overall complication rate was 68% (34 donors). Major complications included intraoperative bleeding in one, biliary leak in two, and pneumonia in three donors. Minor complications included mild pleural effusion in 13 donors, transient ascites in 10, mild depression in 7, intra-abdominal collections in 3, and wound infections in 1 donor. Residual liver volume did not affect the complication rate. None required reoperation. Return to predonation activity occurred within 6 to 8 weeks. No liver impairment occurred during follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Right lobe adult LDLT is a safe procedure with regard to donor outcome. Major complications occurred in only 10% of our series.

Transection of cervical trachea following blunt trauma

Laryngotracheal injuries are relatively rare but their mortality rate is fairly high. Complete disruption of the trachea is extremely rare and a systematic approach is needed for early diagnosis and favourable outcome. The patient's symptoms and physical signs do not necessarily correlate with the severity of the injury as this case report highlights. X-rays, CT scans, barium swallows and endoscopies are recommended for evaluation of such injuries. However, direct laryngoscopy and fibre optic bronchoscopy are the most accurate.