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Sinka L, Abraira L, Imbach LL, Zieglgänsberger D, Santamarina E, Álvarez-Sabín J, Ferreira-Atuesta C, Katan M, Scherrer N, Bicciato G, Terziev R, Simmen C, Schubert KM, Elshahabi A, Baumann CR, Döhler N, Erdélyi-Canavese B, Felbecker A, Siebel P, Winklehner M, von Oertzen TJ, Wagner JN, Gigli GL, Serafini A, Nilo A, Janes F, Merlino G, Valente M, Zafra-Sierra MP, Bayona-Ortiz H, Conrad J, Evers S, Lochner P, Roell F, Brigo F, Bentes C, Peralta AR, Pinho e Melo T, Keezer MR, Duncan JS, Sander JW, Tettenborn B, Koepp MJ, Galovic M. Association of Mortality and Risk of Epilepsy With Type of Acute Symptomatic Seizure After Ischemic Stroke and an Updated Prognostic Model. JAMA Neurol 2023; 80:605-613. [PMID: 37036702 PMCID: PMC10087089 DOI: 10.1001/jamaneurol.2023.0611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2022] [Accepted: 12/16/2022] [Indexed: 04/11/2023]
Abstract
Importance Acute symptomatic seizures occurring within 7 days after ischemic stroke may be associated with an increased mortality and risk of epilepsy. It is unknown whether the type of acute symptomatic seizure influences this risk. Objective To compare mortality and risk of epilepsy following different types of acute symptomatic seizures. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed data acquired from 2002 to 2019 from 9 tertiary referral centers. The derivation cohort included adults from 7 cohorts and 2 case-control studies with neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke and without a history of seizures. Replication in 3 separate cohorts included adults with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after neuroimaging-confirmed ischemic stroke. The final data analysis was performed in July 2022. Exposures Type of acute symptomatic seizure. Main Outcomes and Measures All-cause mortality and epilepsy (at least 1 unprovoked seizure presenting >7 days after stroke). Results A total of 4552 adults were included in the derivation cohort (2547 male participants [56%]; 2005 female [44%]; median age, 73 years [IQR, 62-81]). Acute symptomatic seizures occurred in 226 individuals (5%), of whom 8 (0.2%) presented with status epilepticus. In patients with acute symptomatic status epilepticus, 10-year mortality was 79% compared with 30% in those with short acute symptomatic seizures and 11% in those without seizures. The 10-year risk of epilepsy in stroke survivors with acute symptomatic status epilepticus was 81%, compared with 40% in survivors with short acute symptomatic seizures and 13% in survivors without seizures. In a replication cohort of 39 individuals with acute symptomatic status epilepticus after ischemic stroke (24 female; median age, 78 years), the 10-year risk of mortality and epilepsy was 76% and 88%, respectively. We updated a previously described prognostic model (SeLECT 2.0) with the type of acute symptomatic seizures as a covariate. SeLECT 2.0 successfully captured cases at high risk of poststroke epilepsy. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, individuals with stroke and acute symptomatic seizures presenting as status epilepticus had a higher mortality and risk of epilepsy compared with those with short acute symptomatic seizures or no seizures. The SeLECT 2.0 prognostic model adequately reflected the risk of epilepsy in high-risk cases and may inform decisions on the continuation of antiseizure medication treatment and the methods and frequency of follow-up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucia Sinka
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Laura Abraira
- Epilepsy Unit, Department of Neurology, Vall d’Hebron Hospital Universitari, Barcelona, and Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | | | | | - Estevo Santamarina
- Epilepsy Unit, Department of Neurology, Vall d’Hebron Hospital Universitari, Barcelona, and Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - José Álvarez-Sabín
- Epilepsy Unit, Department of Neurology, Vall d’Hebron Hospital Universitari, Barcelona, and Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Carolina Ferreira-Atuesta
- Department of Clinical & Experimental Epilepsy, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Neurology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
- Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, United Kingdom
| | - Mira Katan
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Neurology, University Hospital and University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Natalie Scherrer
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Giulio Bicciato
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Robert Terziev
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Cyril Simmen
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Kai Michael Schubert
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Adham Elshahabi
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Christian R. Baumann
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Nico Döhler
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St. Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
- Specialist Clinic for Neurorehabilitation, Kliniken Beelitz, Beelitz-Heilstätten, Germany
| | | | - Ansgar Felbecker
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St. Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Philip Siebel
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St. Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Michael Winklehner
- Department of Neurology 1, Kepler Universitätsklinikum, Neuromed Campus, Linz, Austria
- Division of Neuropathology and Neurochemistry, Department of Neurology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Tim J. von Oertzen
- Department of Neurology 1, Kepler Universitätsklinikum, Neuromed Campus, Linz, Austria
| | - Judith N. Wagner
- Department of Neurology 1, Kepler Universitätsklinikum, Neuromed Campus, Linz, Austria
| | - Gian Luigi Gigli
- Department of Medicine, University of Udine and Clinical Neurology, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Anna Serafini
- Department of Medicine, University of Udine and Clinical Neurology, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Annacarmen Nilo
- Department of Medicine, University of Udine and Clinical Neurology, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Francesco Janes
- Department of Medicine, University of Udine and Clinical Neurology, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Giovanni Merlino
- Department of Medicine, University of Udine and Clinical Neurology, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Mariarosaria Valente
- Department of Medicine, University of Udine and Clinical Neurology, Udine University Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - María Paula Zafra-Sierra
- Department of Neurology, Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, Universidad de Los Andes, Universidad del Bosque, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Hernan Bayona-Ortiz
- Department of Neurology, Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, Universidad de Los Andes, Universidad del Bosque, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Julian Conrad
- Department of Neurology, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany
- Department of Neurology and German Center for Vertigo and Balance Disorders-IFB-LMU, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Stefan Evers
- Department of Neurology, University of Muenster, Muenster, Germany
- Department of Neurology, Krankenhaus Lindenbrunn, Coppenbrügge, Germany
| | - Piergiorgio Lochner
- Department of Neurology, Saarland University Medical Center, Homburg, Germany
| | - Frauke Roell
- Department of Neurology, Saarland University Medical Center, Homburg, Germany
| | - Francesco Brigo
- Department of Neurology, Hospital of Merano (SABES-ASDAA), Merano-Meran, Italy
| | - Carla Bentes
- Department of Neurosciences and Mental Health (Neurology), Hospital de Santa Maria-CHLN, Centro de Estudos Egas Moniz, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Ana Rita Peralta
- Department of Neurosciences and Mental Health (Neurology), Hospital de Santa Maria-CHLN, Centro de Estudos Egas Moniz, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Teresa Pinho e Melo
- Department of Neurosciences and Mental Health (Neurology), Hospital de Santa Maria-CHLN, Centro de Estudos Egas Moniz, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Mark R. Keezer
- Stichting Epilepsie Instellingen Nederland (SEIN), Heemstede, the Netherlands
- Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - John S. Duncan
- Department of Clinical & Experimental Epilepsy, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom
- Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, United Kingdom
| | - Josemir W. Sander
- Department of Clinical & Experimental Epilepsy, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom
- Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, United Kingdom
- Stichting Epilepsie Instellingen Nederland (SEIN), Heemstede, the Netherlands
| | - Barbara Tettenborn
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St. Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Matthias J. Koepp
- Department of Clinical & Experimental Epilepsy, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom
- Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, United Kingdom
| | - Marian Galovic
- Department of Neurology, Clinical Neuroscience Center, University Hospital and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Clinical & Experimental Epilepsy, UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology, London, United Kingdom
- Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, United Kingdom
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Galovic M, Döhler N, Erdélyi-Canavese B, Felbecker A, Siebel P, Conrad J, Evers S, Winklehner M, von Oertzen TJ, Haring HP, Serafini A, Gregoraci G, Valente M, Janes F, Gigli GL, Keezer MR, Duncan JS, Sander JW, Koepp MJ, Tettenborn B. Prediction of late seizures after ischaemic stroke with a novel prognostic model (the SeLECT score): a multivariable prediction model development and validation study. Lancet Neurol 2019; 17:143-152. [PMID: 29413315 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(17)30404-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 144] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2017] [Revised: 10/17/2017] [Accepted: 10/18/2017] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stroke is one of the leading causes of acquired epilepsy in adults. An instrument to predict whether people are at high risk of developing post-stroke seizures is not available. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model of late (>7 days) seizures after ischaemic stroke. METHODS In this multivariable prediction model development and validation study, we developed the SeLECT score based on five clinical predictors in 1200 participants who had an ischaemic stroke in Switzerland using backward elimination of a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. We externally validated this score in 1169 participants from three independent international cohorts in Austria, Germany, and Italy, and assessed its performance with the concordance statistic and calibration plots. FINDINGS Data were complete for 99·2% of the predictors (99·2% for Switzerland, 100% for Austria, 97% for Germany, and 99·7% for Italy) and 100% of the outcome parameters. Overall, the risk of late seizures was 4% (95% CI 4-5) 1 year after stroke and 8% (6-9) 5 years after stroke. The final model included five variables and was named SeLECT on the basis of the first letters of the included parameters (severity of stroke, large-artery atherosclerotic aetiology, early seizures, cortical involvement, and territory of middle cerebral artery involvement). The lowest SeLECT value (0 points) was associated with a 0·7% (95% CI 0·4-1·0) risk of late seizures within 1 year after stroke (1·3% [95% CI 0·7-1·8] within 5 years), whereas the highest value (9 points) predicted a 63% (42-77) risk of late seizures within 1 year (83% [62-93] within 5 years). The model had an overall concordance statistic of 0·77 (95% CI 0·71-0·82) in the validation cohorts. Calibration plots indicated high agreement of predicted and observed outcomes. INTERPRETATION This easily applied instrument was shown to be a good predictor of the risk of late seizures after stroke in three external validation cohorts and is freely available as a smartphone app. The SeLECT score has the potential to identify individuals at high risk of seizures and is a step towards more personalised medicine. It can inform the selection of an enriched population for antiepileptogenic treatment trials and will guide the recruitment for biomarker studies of epileptogenesis. FUNDING None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marian Galovic
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland; Department of Clinical and Experimental Epilepsy, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK; Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, UK
| | - Nico Döhler
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
| | | | - Ansgar Felbecker
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Philip Siebel
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Julian Conrad
- Department of Neurology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany; Department of Neurology and German Center for Vertigo and Balance Disorders-IFB-LMU, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Stefan Evers
- Department of Neurology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany; Department of Neurology, Krankenhaus Lindenbrunn, Coppenbrügge, Germany
| | - Michael Winklehner
- Department of Neurology 1, Kepler Universitätsklinikum, Neuromed Campus, Linz, Austria
| | - Tim J von Oertzen
- Department of Neurology 1, Kepler Universitätsklinikum, Neuromed Campus, Linz, Austria
| | - Hans-Peter Haring
- Department of Neurology 1, Kepler Universitätsklinikum, Neuromed Campus, Linz, Austria
| | - Anna Serafini
- Dipartimento di Aerea Medica (DAME), University of Udine, Udine, Italy
| | - Giorgia Gregoraci
- Dipartimento di Aerea Medica (DAME), University of Udine, Udine, Italy
| | - Mariarosaria Valente
- Dipartimento di Aerea Medica (DAME), University of Udine, Udine, Italy; Neurology Unit, University of Udine Academic Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Francesco Janes
- Neurology Unit, University of Udine Academic Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Gian Luigi Gigli
- Dipartimento di Aerea Medica (DAME), University of Udine, Udine, Italy; Neurology Unit, University of Udine Academic Hospital, Udine, Italy
| | - Mark R Keezer
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Epilepsy, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK; Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, UK; Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal (CHUM), Hôpital Notre-Dame, Montréal, QC, Canada; Stichting Epilepsie Instellingen Nederland (SEIN), Heemstede, Netherlands
| | - John S Duncan
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Epilepsy, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK; Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, UK
| | - Josemir W Sander
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Epilepsy, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK; Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, UK; Stichting Epilepsie Instellingen Nederland (SEIN), Heemstede, Netherlands
| | - Matthias J Koepp
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Epilepsy, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK; Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter, UK
| | - Barbara Tettenborn
- Department of Neurology, Kantonsspital St Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland.
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