Interrelationship of soil moisture and temperature to sylvatic plague cycle among prairie dogs in the Western United States

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, is a flea-borne disease that is endemic in areas throughout the world due to its successful maintenance in a sylvatic cycle, mainly in areas with temperate climates. Burrowing rodents are thought to play a key role in the enzootic maintenance as well as epizootic outbreaks of plague. In the United States, prairie dogs (Cynomys), rodents (Muridae), and ground squirrels (Spermophilus) are susceptible to infection and are parasitized by fleas that transmit plague. In particular, prairie dogs can experience outbreaks that rapidly spread, which can lead to extirpation of colonies. A number of ecological parameters, including climate, are associated with these epizootics. In this study, we asked whether soil parameters, primarily moisture and temperature, are associated with outbreaks of plague in black-tailed prairie dogs and Gunnison's prairie dogs in the Western United States, and at what depth these associations were apparent. We collected publicly available county-level information on the occurrence of population declines or colony extirpation, while historical soil data was collected from SCAN and USCRN stations in counties and states where prairie dogs have been located. The analysis suggests that soil moisture at lower depths correlates with colony die-offs, in addition to temperature near the surface, with key differences within the landscape ecology that impact the occurrence of plague. Overall, the model suggests that the burrow environment may play a significant role in the epizootic spread of disease amongst black-tailed and Gunnison's prairie dogs.