Evaluation of a downstaging, bidirectional version of the Montreal classification of Crohn's disease: Analysis of 5-year follow-up data from the prospective BioCrohn study

OBJECTIVE

Under the assumption of irreversibility, the Montreal classification provides a unidirectional assessment of the complications and behaviour of Crohn's disease (CD) that does not allow for downstaging. We examined the use of a bidirectional Montreal classification system that can capture disease regression.

DESIGN

From the BioCrohn Registry, an inception cohort of patients with CD for ≤12 months duration was defined and followed up for 5-years. Cumulative probabilities for developing complications were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Potential associations of explanatory variables with disease progression were estimated with Cox regression.

RESULTS

Among 393 incident CD patients (of whom 255 completed the entire follow-up), the 5-year cumulative probability of developing complications was 41.5% (15.6% and 25.9% for stricturing and penetrating complications respectively). Perianal disease (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 8.45 [4.74-15.07]) and surgical resection of the intestine (2.71 [1.50-4.92]) in the very early phase of the disease were associated with a higher risk of developing a penetrating complication within the 5-year follow-up. The use of a bidirectional Montreal classification system which can account for disease regression demonstrated that 90% of patients exhibited inflammatory disease behaviour at 5 years, in contrast to 58%, if the hierarchical, unidirectional Montreal classification system was used.

CONCLUSION

An additional bidirectional disease behaviour assessment capturing reversed or fully controlled complications may provide a more realistic appraisal of the complexity and unmet needs of patients treated with advanced therapies.

Differences in maternal smoking across successive pregnancies - dose-dependent relation to BMI z-score in the offspring: an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Uncontrolled family factors may bias the estimation of the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring body mass index (BMI). The objective was to assess if there is an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring BMI z-score independent of factors in the siblings' shared environment and if such association is linear.

METHODS

We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis using five studies providing sibling data (45,299 children from 14,231 families). In a multi-level model, separating within-family and between-family effects and with random intercept for families, we analysed the dose-response association between maternal number of cigarettes per day during pregnancy and offspring's BMI z-score using B-splines to allow for non-linear associations.

RESULTS

A linear within-family effect for number of cigarettes smoked in the range from 1 to 30 cigarettes per day on the offspring's BMI z-score was observed. Each additional cigarette per day between sibling pregnancies resulted in an increase in BMI z-score of 0.007 (95% CI [0.006, 0.009]). A between family-effect emerged only with doses ≥25 cigarettes per day.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of cigarettes mothers smoke per day during pregnancy is positively associated with offspring BMI z-score even among siblings, suggesting that the association is not entirely explained by confounding by family factors.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring overweight: is there a dose-response relationship? An individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

A number of meta-analyses suggest an association between any maternal smoking in pregnancy and offspring overweight obesity. Whether there is a dose-response relationship across number of cigarettes and whether this differs by sex remains unclear.

SUBJECT/METHODS

Studies reporting number of cigarettes smoked during pregnancy and offspring BMI published up to May 2015 were searched. An individual patient data meta-analysis of association between the number of cigarettes smoked during pregnancy and offspring overweight (defined according to the International Obesity Task Force reference) was computed using a generalized additive mixed model with non-linear effects and adjustment for confounders (maternal weight status, breastfeeding, and maternal education) and stratification for sex.

RESULTS

Of 26 identified studies, 16 authors provided data on a total of 238,340 mother-child-pairs. A linear positive association was observed between the number of cigarettes smoked and offspring overweight for up to 15 cigarettes per day with an OR increase per cigarette of 1.03, 95% CI = [1.02-1.03]. The OR flattened with higher cigarette use. Associations were similar in males and females. Sensitivity analyses supported these results.

CONCLUSIONS

A linear dose-response relationship of maternal smoking was observed in the range of 1-15 cigarettes per day equally in boys and girls with no further risk increase for doses above 15 cigarettes.

Factors Modifying the Radon-Related Lung Cancer Risk at Low Exposures and Exposure Rates among German Uranium Miners

It is still not fully understood whether and how factors such as time, age and smoking modify the relationship between lung cancer and radon at low exposures and exposure rates. Improved knowledge is necessary for the dose conversion of radon in working level month (WLM) into effective dose, as currently discussed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). An update of the German uranium miner cohort study (n = 58,974 men) with a 10-year extension of mortality follow-up (1946-2013) was used to further examine this issue. Internal Poisson regression was applied to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) for lung cancer mortality per unit of cumulative radon exposure in WLM with exponential time-related effect modifiers. In the full cohort restricted to <100 WLM the estimated overall ERR/WLM was 0.006 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.003; 0.010] based on 1,254 lung cancer deaths and 1,620,190 person-years at risk. Both age at and time since exposure turned out to be important modifiers of the ERR/WLM and were included in the final model. Here, the ERR/WLM centered on age at exposure of 30 years, and 20 years since exposure was 0.016 (95% CI: 0.008; 0.028). This value decreased statistically significantly by approximately 40% and 60% for each 10-year increase in age at exposure and time since exposure, respectively. The joint effect of smoking and radon exposure was investigated in the sub-cohort of miners hired in 1960 or later, which includes data on smoking status. The centered ERR/WLM was slightly higher for non/light smokers compared to moderate/heavy smokers (0.022 versus 0.013). The current findings provide evidence for an increased lung cancer risk at low radon exposures or exposure rates that is modified by age and time. The observed risk is lower, but statistically compatible to those of other miner studies at low exposures or exposure rates. These findings reject an additive- and support a sub- to (supra-) multiplicative interaction between smoking and radon.

Current knowledge on radon risk: implications for practical radiation protection? radon workshop, 1/2 December 2015, Bonn, BMUB (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit; Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety)

ICRP suggested a strategy based on the distinction between a protection approach for dwellings and one for workplaces in the previous recommendations on radon. Now, the Commission recommends an integrated approach for the protection against radon exposure in all buildings irrespective of their purpose and the status of their occupants. The strategy of protection in buildings, implemented through a national action plan, is based on the application of the optimisation principle below a derived reference level in concentration (maximum 300 Bq m(-3)). A problem, however, arises that due to new epidemiological findings and application of dosimetric models, ICRP 115 (Ann ICRP 40, 2010) presents nominal probability coefficients for radon exposure that are approximately by a factor of 2 larger than in the former recommendations of ICRP 65 (Ann ICRP 23, 1993). On the basis of the so-called epidemiological approach and the dosimetric approach, the doubling of risk per unit exposure is represented by a doubling of the dose coefficients, while the risk coefficient of ICRP 103 (2007) remains unchanged. Thus, an identical given radon exposure situation with the new dose coefficients would result in a doubling of dose compared with the former values. This is of serious conceptual implications. A possible solution of this problem was presented during the workshop.

Latent class analysis of diagnostic tests for adenovirus, Bordetella pertussis and influenza virus infections in German adults with longer lasting coughs

Laboratory tests in adult outpatients with longer lasting coughs to identify a potential causal pathogen are rarely performed, and there is no gold standard for these diagnostic tests. While the diagnostic validity of serological tests for pertussis is well established their potential contribution for diagnosing adenovirus and influenza virus A and B infections is unclear. A sentinel study into the population-based incidence of longer lasting coughs in adults was done in Rostock (former East Germany) and Krefeld (former West Germany). A total of 971 outpatients who consulted general practitioners or internists were included. Inclusion criteria were coughing for ⩾1 week and no chronic respiratory diseases. We evaluated the performance of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as well as IgG and IgA serology, applying a latent class model for diagnosing infections with adenovirus, B. pertussis, and influenza virus A and B. The adult outpatients first sought medical attention when they had been coughing for a median of 3 weeks. In this situation, direct detection of infectious agents by PCR had a low sensitivity. Modelling showed that additional serological tests equally improved sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis for adenovirus, B. pertussis and influenza virus A and B infections. The combination of serology and PCR may improve the overall performance of diagnostic tests for B. pertussis and also for adenovirus, and influenza virus A and B infections.

Obese Nondiabetic Pregnancies and High Maternal Glycated Hemoglobin at Delivery as an Indicator of Offspring and Maternal Postpartum Risks: The Prospective PEACHES Mother-Child Cohort

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether obese pregnant women negative for gestational diabetes (GDM) still experience dysglycemia, as indicated by high glycated hemoglobin (Hb A1c) at delivery, and whether this impacts offspring and long-term maternal outcomes.

METHODS

Data of 462 mother-child pairs of our prospective Programming of Enhanced Adiposity Risk in Childhood - Early Screening (PEACHES) cohort study were analyzed. Of 885 obese and normal-weight pregnancies prospectively enrolled after GDM testing according to the International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria, 462 GDM-negative mothers and their offspring were investigated. We assessed associations of maternal Hb A1c at delivery with large-for-gestational-age (LGA) birth weights, cord-blood C-peptide, and biomarkers of glucose metabolism and inflammation in obese mothers followed for 2.9 years (median) postpartum (n = 42).

RESULTS

Cumulative distribution analysis in GDM-negative normal-weight women (n = 155) revealed that 12% had Hb A1c ≥5.7% at delivery (high Hb A1c). Among obese GDM-negative women (n = 307), 31.9% (95% CI, 26.7%-37.4%) equaled or exceeded this cutoff. In obese GDM-negative women with Hb A1c ≥5.7% (n = 98) vs <5.7% (n = 209) at delivery, newborns were more likely to be born LGA [adjusted odds ratio 3.56 (95% CI, 1.64-8.02)], and mean cordblood serum C-peptide was increased by 0.09 ng/mL (95% CI, 0.01-0.17 ng/mL). In the mothers at follow-up, mean postpartum Hb A1c, fasting glucose, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen concentrations were higher by 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.5%), 6.0 mg/dL (95% CI, 2.4-9.5 mg/dL), 6.8 mg/L (95% CI, 1.4-12.3 mg/L), and 74.9 mg/dL (95% CI, 13.6-136.2 mg/dL), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased Hb A1c in obese GDM-negative women at delivery indicates gestational dysglycemia, potentially conferring offspring and long-term maternal health risks. These findings should raise awareness as to careful monitoring of obese pregnancies. Measurement of Hb A1c at delivery could help select women who may need closer postpartum health checks.