Relative age effects in Elite Chinese soccer players: Implications of the 'one-child' policy

The relative age effect (RAE) refers to the asymmetrical distribution of birthdates in a cohort found in many achievement domains, particularly in sports with many participants like soccer. Given the uniqueness of the one-child policy in China, this study examined the existence of the RAE in elite Chinese male and female soccer players generally and relative to their playing position on the field. Results showed a clear and obvious RAE for all age groups (U20 male, U18 male, adult female and U18 female) with the observed birthdate distributions for each age group significantly different from expected distributions (p<0.05). Additionally, we noticed a differential RAE according to the players’ position on the field as reflected in different effect sizes. In male players, the RAE was significantly greater in Defenders (DF) and Goalkeepers (GK) compared to Midfielders (MF) and Forwards (FW) (V_DF = 0.266>V_GK = 0.215>V_MF = 0.178>V_FW = 0.175). In female players, GKs had a larger RAE (V_GK = 0.184>0.17, V_DF = 0.143, V_MF = 0.127, V_FW = 0.116). To reduce the negative consequences associated with RAEs throughout player development systems, potential solutions are discussed.

Geographical Variations in the Interaction of Relative Age Effects in Youth and Adult Elite Soccer

Selection biases based on the use of cut-off dates and the timing of athletes’ birthdates have been termed relative age effects. These effects have been shown to differentially affect individuals involved in sport. For example, young male soccer players born early in their age group are overrepresented in elite teams while studies in adult soccer indicated potential carry-over effects from talent development systems. This two-study approach focuses on the processes within multi-year age groups in youth and adult elite soccer and on the role of players’ age position within the age band with regard to players’ birth year and birth month. Study 1 tests for an interaction of two different types of relative age effects among data from participants in the last five Under-17 FIFA World Cups (2007–2015). Analyses revealed a significant global within-year effect and varying birthdate distributions were found between confederations. Even stronger effects were found for constituent year effects. For the total sample, a multi-way frequency analysis (MFA) revealed an interaction with a pattern of a stronger within-year effect for the younger year group. This study highlights the need to consider interactions between different types of age effects. The main aim of Study 2 was to test for carry-over effects from previously found constituent year effects among players participating in the 2014 soccer World Cup and, therefore, to test for long-term effects of age grouping structures used during earlier stages of talent development. A secondary purpose of this study was to replicate findings on the existence of within-year effects and to test whether effects vary between continental confederations. No significant interaction between constituent year and within-year effects was shown by the MFA among the World Cup sample and previous findings on varying within-year effects were replicated. Results indicate that long-term effects of age grouping structures in earlier high-level talent development structures exist.

The interaction between constituent year and within-1-year effects in elite German youth basketball

The current state of research on relative age effects in basketball shows an uneven picture. These mixed results might be caused by the interaction of constituent year and within-year effects. Our aim was to examine constituent and within-1-year effects in elite German youth basketball. The sample (n = 4400) included players competing in the JBBL (Under-16 first division) and the NBBL (Under-19 first division) from 2011/2012 until 2013/2014. A multi-way frequency analysis revealed an interaction of constituent year effects and within-1-year effects for the JBBL, χ² (6, 2590) = 12.76, P < 0.05. NBBL data showed significant constituent year effects, χ² (2, n = 1810) = 25.32, P < 0.01, and within-1-year effects for all three age bands but no interaction. The interaction between constituent year and within-1-year effects in the JBBL showed reduced within-1-year effects with increasing age. Once players enter the system in the JBBL, relatively younger players seem less likely to drop out of the system. Results offer new insight regarding how the regulations of this talent development system may influence athletes' opportunities to enter the system and their likelihood of staying at the highest levels of competition.

Does Relative Age Affect Career Length in North American Professional Sports?

Background

Relative age effects (RAEs) typically favour older members within a cohort; however, research suggests that younger players may experience some long-term advantages, such as longer career length. The purposes of this study were to replicate previous findings on RAEs among National Hockey League (NHL) ice hockey players, National Basketball Association (NBA) basketball players and National Football League (NFL) football players and to investigate the influence of relative age on career length in all three sports.

Methods

Using official archives, birthdates and number of games played were collected for players drafted into the NBA (N = 407), NFL (N = 2380) and NHL (N = 1028) from 1980 to 1989. We investigated the possibility that younger players might be able to maximize their career length by operationalizing career length as players’ number of games played throughout their careers.

Results

There was a clear RAE for the NHL, but effects were not significant for the NBA or NFL. Moreover, there was a significant difference in matches played between birth quartiles in the NHL favouring relatively younger players. There were no significant quartiles by career length effects in the NBA or NFL.

Conclusions

The significant relationship between relative age and career length provides further support for relative age as an important constraint on expertise development in ice hockey but not basketball or football. Currently, the reason why relatively younger players have longer careers is not known. However, it may be worth exploring the influence of injury risk or the development of better playing skills.