Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

Structure of mixed ombrophyllous forests with Araucaria angustifolia (Araucariaceae) under external stress in Southern Brazil

This study is part of the Floristic and Forest Inventory of Santa Catarina, conceived to evaluate forest resources, species composition and structure of forest remnants, providing information to update forest conservation and land use policy in Southern Brazilian State of Santa Catarina (95 000 km2). In accordance to the Brazilian National Forest Inventory (IFN-BR), the inventory applies systematic sampling, with 440 clusters containing four crosswise 1 000m2 plots (20 x 50m) each, located on a 10 x 10km grid overlaid to land use map based on classification of SPOT-4 images from 2005. Within the sample units, all woody individuals of the main stratum (DBH > or = 10cm) are measured and collected (fertile and sterile), if not undoubtedly identified in field. Regeneration stratum (height > 1.50m; DBH < 10cm) is registered in 100m2 in each sample unit. Floristic sampling includes collection of all fertile trees, shrubs and herbs within the sample unit and in its surroundings. This study performs analysis based on 92 clusters measured in 2008 within an area of 32320km2 of mixed ombrophyllous forests with Araucaria angustifolia located at the state's high plateau (500m to 1 560m above sea level at 26 degrees 00'-28 degrees 30' S and 49 degrees 13'-51 degrees 23' W). Mean density (DBH > or = 10cm) is 578 individuals/ha (ranging from 85/ha to 1 310/ha), mean species richness in measured remnants is 35 (8 to 62), Shannon and Wiener diversity index (H') varies between 1.05 and 3.48. Despite high total species diversity (364 Magnoliophyta, five Coniferophyta and one tree fern) and relatively high mean basal area (25.75m2/ha, varying from 3.87 to 68.85m2/ha), the overwhelming majority of forest fragments are considered highly impacted and impoverished, mostly by logging, burning and extensive cattle farming, turning necessary more efficient protection measures. Basal area was considered an appropriate indicator for stand quality and conservation status.