Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prognostic-Predictive Classifier for Treatment Escalation of Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The PREDICTR-OPC Study

PURPOSE

While there are several prognostic classifiers, to date, there are no validated predictive models that inform treatment selection for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).Our aim was to develop clinical and/or biomarker predictive models for patient outcome and treatment escalation for OPSCC.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We retrospectively collated clinical data and samples from a consecutive cohort of OPSCC cases treated with curative intent at ten secondary care centers in United Kingdom and Poland between 1999 and 2012. We constructed tissue microarrays, which were stained and scored for 10 biomarkers. We then undertook multivariable regression of eight clinical parameters and 10 biomarkers on a development cohort of 600 patients. Models were validated on an independent, retrospectively collected, 385-patient cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 985 subjects (median follow-up 5.03 years, range: 4.73-5.21 years) were included. The final biomarker classifier, comprising p16 and survivin immunohistochemistry, high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in situ hybridization, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, predicted benefit from combined surgery + adjuvant chemo/radiotherapy over primary chemoradiotherapy in the high-risk group [3-year overall survival (OS) 63.1% vs. 41.1%, respectively, HR = 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.16-0.65; P = 0.002], but not in the low-risk group (HR = 0.4; 95% CI, 0.14-1.24; P = 0.114). On further adjustment by propensity scores, the adjusted HR in the high-risk group was 0.34, 95% CI = 0.17-0.67, P = 0.002, and in the low-risk group HR was 0.5, 95% CI = 0.1-2.38, P = 0.384. The concordance index was 0.73.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a prognostic classifier, which also appears to demonstrate moderate predictive ability. External validation in a prospective setting is now underway to confirm this and prepare for clinical adoption.

HPV-Related Oropharynx Cancer in the United Kingdom: An Evolution in the Understanding of Disease Etiology

A rising incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) incidence has occurred throughout the developed world, where it has been attributed to an increasing impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) on disease etiology. This report presents the findings of a multicenter cross-sectional retrospective study aimed at determining the proportion of HPV-positive and HPV-negative OPSCC within the United Kingdom. Archival tumor tissue blocks from 1,602 patients previously diagnosed with OPSCC (2002-2011) were collated from 11 centers. HPV status was determined with three validated commercial tests to provide valid data for 1,474 cases in total. Corresponding national incidence data from the same decade were obtained from UK Cancer registries. The overall proportion of HPV+ OPSCC between 2002 and 2011 was 51.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 49.3-54.4], and this remained unchanged throughout the decade [unadjusted RR = 1.00 (95% CI, 0.99-1.02)]. However, over the same period, the incidence of OPSCC in the broader UK population underwent a 2-fold increase [age-standardized rate 2002: 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2); 2011: 4.1 (95% CI, 4.0-4.3)]. Although the number of OPSCCs diagnosed within the United Kingdom from 2002 to 2011 nearly doubled, the proportion of HPV+ cases remained static at approximately 50%. Our results argue that the rapidly increasing incidence of OPSCC in the United Kingdom cannot be solely attributable to the influence of HPV. The parallel increase in HPV+ and HPV- cases we documented warrants further investigation, so that appropriate future prevention strategies for both types of disease can be implemented. Cancer Res; 76(22); 6598-606. ©2016 AACR.