Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C'. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve 'balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on 'greenhouse gas balance' is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Measurement of spin-transfer observables in p p-->Lambda Lambda at 1.637 GeV/c

Spin-transfer observables for p p-->Lambda Lambda have been measured using a transversely polarized frozen-spin target and a beam momentum of 1.637 GeV/c. Current models of the reaction near threshold are in good agreement with existing measurements performed with unpolarized particles in the initial state but produce conflicting predictions for the spin-transfer observables Dnn and Knn (the normal-to-normal depolarization and polarization transfer), which are measurable only with polarized target or beam. Measurements of Dnn and Knn presented here are found to be in disagreement with predictions from these models.

Increased placental resistance and late decelerations associated with severe proteinuric hypertension predicts poor fetal outcome

The flow velocity wave forms generated by Doppler ultrasound examination of the umbilical artery were correlated with fetoplacental blood flow and numerically expressed as a ratio between the systolic (A) and the end-diastolic point (B). The technique is non-invasive and simple to perform. A cohort analytical study was done to see whether useful information could be obtained from the A/B ratio that could help in the management of patients with severe proteinuric hypertension. Fifty patients with severe proteinuric hypertension at less than 34 weeks' gestation were studied and serial Doppler ultrasound examinations of the umbilical artery were performed. No ultrasound results were made available to the clinician. An A/B ratio of 6 or greater was regarded as increased. Twenty-eight of the patients had an increased A/B ratio; in this group these 14 infants were small for gestational age, 14 developed late decelerations and there were 12 perinatal deaths. The remaining 22 patients had an A/B ratio of less than 6 and only 3 produced infants which were small for gestational age; 2 fetuses developed late decelerations and there was 1 perinatal death. A significant difference was found between the two groups in respect of these results. The group with an abnormal A/B ratio also experienced more neonatal morbidity. The A/B ratio of the umbilical artery wave form may assist in planning delivery of patients with severe proteinuric hypertension more accurately.