The impact of local control on overall survival after stereotactic body radiotherapy for liver and lung metastases from colorectal cancer: a combined analysis of 388 patients with 500 metastases

BACKGROUND

The aim of this analysis was to model the effect of local control (LC) on overall survival (OS) in patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for liver or lung metastases from colorectal cancer.

METHODS

The analysis is based on pooled data from two retrospective SBRT databases for pulmonary and hepatic metastases from 27 centers from Germany and Switzerland. Only patients with metastases from colorectal cancer were considered to avoid histology as a confounding factor. An illness-death model was employed to model the relationship between LC and OS.

RESULTS

Three hundred eighty-eight patients with 500 metastatic lesions (lung n = 209, liver n = 291) were included and analyzed. Median follow-up time for local recurrence assessment was 12.1 months. Ninety-nine patients with 112 lesions experienced local failure. Seventy-one of these patients died after local failure. Median survival time was 27.9 months in all patients and 25.4 months versus 30.6 months in patients with and without local failure after SBRT. The baseline risk of death after local failure exceeds the baseline risk of death without local failure at 10 months indicating better survival with LC.

CONCLUSION

In CRC patients with lung or liver metastases, our findings suggest improved long-term OS by achieving metastatic disease control using SBRT in patients with a projected OS estimate of > 12 months.

Nomogram based overall survival prediction in stereotactic body radiotherapy for oligo-metastatic lung disease

BACKGROUND

Radical local treatment of pulmonary metastases is practiced with increasing frequency due to acknowledgment and better understanding of oligo-metastatic disease. This study aimed to develop a nomogram predicting overall survival (OS) after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for pulmonary metastases.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A multi-institutional database of 670 patients treated with SBRT for pulmonary metastases was used as training cohort. Cox regression analysis with bidirectional variable elimination was performed to identify factors to be included into the nomogram model to predict 2-year OS. The calibration rate of the nomogram was assessed by plotting the actual Kaplan-Meier 2-year OS against the nomogram predicted survival. The nomogram was externally validated using two separate monocentric databases of 145 and 92 patients treated with SBRT for pulmonary metastases.

RESULTS

The median follow up of the trainings cohort was 14.3months, the 2-year and 5-year OS was 52.6% and 23.7%, respectively. Karnofsky performance index, type of the primary tumor, control of the primary tumor, maximum diameter of the largest treated metastasis and number of metastases (1 versus >1) were significant prognostic factors in the Cox model (all p<0.05). The calculated concordance-index for the nomogram was 0.73 (concordance indexes of all prognostic factors between 0.54 and 0.6). Based on the nomogram the training cohort was divided into 4 groups and 2-year OS ranged between 24.2% and 76.1% (predicted OS between 30.2% and 78.4%). The nomogram discriminated between risk groups in the two validation cohorts (concordance index 0.68 and 0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram for prediction of OS after SBRT for pulmonary metastases was generated and externally validated. This tool might be helpful for interdisciplinary discussion and evaluation of local and systemic treatment options in the oligo-metastatic setting.

KEY MESSAGE

A nomogram for prediction of overall survival after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for pulmonary metastases was developed and externally validated. This tool might be helpful for interdisciplinary discussion and evaluation of local and systemic treatment options in the oligo-metastatic setting.