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Goode EC, Clark AB, Mells GF, Srivastava B, Spiess K, Gelson WT, Trivedi PJ, Lynch KD, Castren E, Vesterhus MN, Karlsen TH, Ji S, Anderson CA, Thorburn D, Hudson M, Heneghan MA, Aldersley MA, Bathgate A, Sandford RN, Alexander GJ, Chapman RW, Walmsley M, Hirschfield GM, Rushbrook SM. Factors Associated With Outcomes of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System. Hepatology 2019; 69:2120-2135. [PMID: 30566748 PMCID: PMC6519245 DOI: 10.1002/hep.30479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2018] [Accepted: 12/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
We sought to identify factors that are predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real-world clinical setting. Analyzing data from 1,001 patients recruited to the UK-PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2-year and 10-year outcome through Cox-proportional hazards and C-statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short-term and long-term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totaling 451 patients. Thirty-six percent of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow-up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase of at least 2.4 × upper limit of normal at 1 year after diagnosis was predictive of 10-year outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.05; C = 0.63; median transplant-free survival 63 versus 108 months; P < 0.0001), as was the presence of extrahepatic biliary disease (HR = 1.45; P = 0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based on age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extrahepatic biliary disease, and variceal hemorrhage, which predicted 2-year and 10-year outcomes with good discrimination (C statistic = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). Both UK-PSC risk scores were well-validated in our external cohort and outperformed the Mayo Clinic and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores (C statistic = 0.75 and 0.63, respectively). Although heterozygosity for the previously validated human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR = 1.33; P = 0.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy of the UK-PSC risk scores. Conclusion: Our analyses, based on a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real-world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth C. Goode
- Norfolk and Norwich University HospitalNorwichUnited Kingdom,Academic Department of Medical GeneticsAddenbrooke's Hospital, University of CambridgeCambridgeUnited Kingdom,Wellcome Trust Sanger InstituteHinxton, CambridgeUnited Kingdom,Norwich Medical SchoolUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUnited Kingdom,Cambridge Transplant CentreAddenbrooke's HospitalCambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | - Allan B. Clark
- Norwich Medical SchoolUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUnited Kingdom
| | - George F. Mells
- Academic Department of Medical GeneticsAddenbrooke's Hospital, University of CambridgeCambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | - Brijesh Srivastava
- Academic Department of Medical GeneticsAddenbrooke's Hospital, University of CambridgeCambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | - Kelly Spiess
- Academic Department of Medical GeneticsAddenbrooke's Hospital, University of CambridgeCambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Palak J. Trivedi
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research CentreBirminghamUnited Kingdom,Institute of Immunology & ImmunotherapyUniversity of BirminghamBirminghamUnited Kingdom,Centre for Rare Diseases, Institute of Translational MedicineUniversity Hospitals BirminghamBirminghamUnited Kingdom
| | - Kate D. Lynch
- Translational Gastroenterology UnitJohn Radcliffe Hospital, and Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Edit Castren
- Norfolk and Norwich University HospitalNorwichUnited Kingdom
| | - Mette N. Vesterhus
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Department of Transplantation MedicineOslo University Hospital RikshospitaletOsloNorway,Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of MedicineUniversity of OsloOsloNorway
| | - Tom H. Karlsen
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Department of Transplantation MedicineOslo University Hospital RikshospitaletOsloNorway,Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of MedicineUniversity of OsloOsloNorway
| | - Sun‐Gou Ji
- Wellcome Trust Sanger InstituteHinxton, CambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Douglas Thorburn
- Sheila Sherlock Liver Centre, Royal Free HospitalLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Mark Hudson
- Liver Medicine and Transplantation ServiceFreeman HospitalNewcastleUnited Kingdom
| | | | | | - Andrew Bathgate
- Scottish Liver Transplant UnitRoyal Infirmary of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Richard N. Sandford
- Academic Department of Medical GeneticsAddenbrooke's Hospital, University of CambridgeCambridgeUnited Kingdom
| | - Graeme J. Alexander
- Cambridge Transplant CentreAddenbrooke's HospitalCambridgeUnited Kingdom,Sheila Sherlock Liver Centre, Royal Free HospitalLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Roger W. Chapman
- Translational Gastroenterology UnitJohn Radcliffe Hospital, and Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | | | - Gideon M. Hirschfield
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research CentreBirminghamUnited Kingdom,Institute of Immunology & ImmunotherapyUniversity of BirminghamBirminghamUnited Kingdom,Centre for Rare Diseases, Institute of Translational MedicineUniversity Hospitals BirminghamBirminghamUnited Kingdom,Toronto Centre for Liver DiseaseUniversity Health Network and University of TorontoTorontoCanada
| | - Simon M. Rushbrook
- Norfolk and Norwich University HospitalNorwichUnited Kingdom,Norwich Medical SchoolUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUnited Kingdom
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Alberts R, de Vries EMG, Goode EC, Jiang X, Sampaziotis F, Rombouts K, Böttcher K, Folseraas T, Weismüller TJ, Mason AL, Wang W, Alexander G, Alvaro D, Bergquist A, Björkström NK, Beuers U, Björnsson E, Boberg KM, Bowlus CL, Bragazzi MC, Carbone M, Chazouillères O, Cheung A, Dalekos G, Eaton J, Eksteen B, Ellinghaus D, Färkkilä M, Festen EAM, Floreani A, Franceschet I, Gotthardt DN, Hirschfield GM, van Hoek B, Holm K, Hohenester S, Hov JR, Imhann F, Invernizzi P, Juran BD, Lenzen H, Lieb W, Liu JZ, Marschall HU, Marzioni M, Melum E, Milkiewicz P, Müller T, Pares A, Rupp C, Rust C, Sandford RN, Schramm C, Schreiber S, Schrumpf E, Silverberg MS, Srivastava B, Sterneck M, Teufel A, Vallier L, Verheij J, Vila AV, de Vries B, Zachou K, Chapman RW, Manns MP, Pinzani M, Rushbrook SM, Lazaridis KN, Franke A, Anderson CA, Karlsen TH, Ponsioen CY, Weersma RK. Genetic association analysis identifies variants associated with disease progression in primary sclerosing cholangitis. Gut 2018; 67:1517-1524. [PMID: 28779025 PMCID: PMC5797498 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2016-313598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2016] [Revised: 04/28/2017] [Accepted: 05/19/2017] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a genetically complex, inflammatory bile duct disease of largely unknown aetiology often leading to liver transplantation or death. Little is known about the genetic contribution to the severity and progression of PSC. The aim of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with PSC disease progression and development of complications. DESIGN We collected standardised PSC subphenotypes in a large cohort of 3402 patients with PSC. After quality control, we combined 130 422 single nucleotide polymorphisms of all patients-obtained using the Illumina immunochip-with their disease subphenotypes. Using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, we identified genetic variants associated with binary and time-to-event PSC subphenotypes. RESULTS We identified genetic variant rs853974 to be associated with liver transplant-free survival (p=6.07×10-9). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a 50.9% (95% CI 41.5% to 59.5%) transplant-free survival for homozygous AA allele carriers of rs853974 compared with 72.8% (95% CI 69.6% to 75.7%) for GG carriers at 10 years after PSC diagnosis. For the candidate gene in the region, RSPO3, we demonstrated expression in key liver-resident effector cells, such as human and murine cholangiocytes and human hepatic stellate cells. CONCLUSION We present a large international PSC cohort, and report genetic loci associated with PSC disease progression. For liver transplant-free survival, we identified a genome-wide significant signal and demonstrated expression of the candidate gene RSPO3 in key liver-resident effector cells. This warrants further assessments of the role of this potential key PSC modifier gene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rudi Alberts
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Elisabeth M G de Vries
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Elizabeth C Goode
- Norwich Medical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK,Academic Department of Medical Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Xiaojun Jiang
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Fotis Sampaziotis
- Department of Surgery, Wellcome Trust-Medical Research Council Stem Cell Institute, Anne McLaren Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK,Department of Surgery, University of Cambridge and NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Krista Rombouts
- Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK
| | - Katrin Böttcher
- Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK
| | - Trine Folseraas
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Tobias J Weismüller
- Department of Gastroenterology Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany,Integrated Research and Treatment Center-Transplantation (IFB-tx) Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany
| | - Andrew L Mason
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Weiwei Wang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Graeme Alexander
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hepatology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Domenico Alvaro
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Annika Bergquist
- Center for Digestive Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Niklas K Björkström
- Department of Medicine Huddinge, Center for Infectious Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Ulrich Beuers
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Einar Björnsson
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Landspitali University Hospital, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - Kirsten Muri Boberg
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,K G Jebsen Inflammation Research Centre and Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Christopher L Bowlus
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Maria C Bragazzi
- Sapienza University of Rome, Medico-Surgical Sciences and Biotechnologies, Rome, Italy
| | - Marco Carbone
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, Program for Autoimmune Liver Diseases, International Center for Digestive Health, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Angela Cheung
- General Internal Medicine, University Health Network, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, Canada
| | - Georgios Dalekos
- Department of Medicine and Research Laboratory of Internal Medicine, Medical School, University of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece
| | - John Eaton
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic Minnesota, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Bertus Eksteen
- Department of Medicine, Snyder Institute of Chronic Diseases, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada
| | - David Ellinghaus
- Institute of Clinical Molecular Biology, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel, Germany
| | - Martti Färkkilä
- Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Eleonora A M Festen
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Annarosa Floreani
- Department of Surgical Oncological and Gastroenterological Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Irene Franceschet
- Department of Surgery Oncology and Gastroenterology, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | - Gideon M Hirschfield
- Centre for Liver Research, NIHR Biomedical Research Unit, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Bart van Hoek
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Kristian Holm
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Simon Hohenester
- Department of Medicine II, Liver Center Munich, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Johannes Roksund Hov
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Floris Imhann
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Pietro Invernizzi
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, Program for Autoimmune Liver Diseases, International Center for Digestive Health, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
| | - Brian D Juran
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic Minnesota, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Henrike Lenzen
- Department of Gastroenterology Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany
| | - Wolfgang Lieb
- Popgen Biobank, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel, Germany,Institute for Epidemiology, Christian-Albrechts University, Kiel, Germany
| | - Jimmy Z Liu
- Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Cambridge, UK
| | - Hanns-Ulrich Marschall
- Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Marco Marzioni
- Department of Gastroenterology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ospedali Riuniti University Hospital, Ancona, Italy
| | - Espen Melum
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Piotr Milkiewicz
- Liver and Internal Medicine Unit, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Tobias Müller
- Department of Internal Medicine Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Campus Virchow Klinikum, Berlin, Germany
| | - Albert Pares
- Liver Unit Hospital Clinic, IDIBAPS, CIBERehd, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Christian Rupp
- Department of Internal Medicine IV, University Hospital of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Christian Rust
- Department of Medicine I, Krankenhaus Barmherzige Brüder, Munich, Germany
| | - Richard N Sandford
- Academic Department of Medical Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Christoph Schramm
- 1st Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Stefan Schreiber
- Institute of Clinical Molecular Biology, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel, Germany,Department for General Internal Medicine, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel, Germany
| | - Erik Schrumpf
- Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Section of Gastroenterology, Department of Transplantation Medicine, Division of Cancer, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Mark S Silverberg
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Group Zane Cohen Centre for Digestive Diseases, Mount Sinai Hospital Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Brijesh Srivastava
- Academic Department of Medical Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Martina Sterneck
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery and Transplantation, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Andreas Teufel
- 1st Department of Medicine, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany
| | - Ludovic Vallier
- Department of Surgery, Wellcome Trust-Medical Research Council Stem Cell Institute, Anne McLaren Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK,Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Cambridge, UK
| | - Joanne Verheij
- Department of Pathology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arnau Vich Vila
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Boudewijn de Vries
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Kalliopi Zachou
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece
| | | | - Roger W Chapman
- Department of Hepatology, John Radcliffe University Hospitals NHS Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Michael P Manns
- Department of Gastroenterology Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany,Integrated Research and Treatment Center-Transplantation (IFB-tx) Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany
| | - Massimo Pinzani
- Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, University College London, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK
| | - Simon M Rushbrook
- Norwich Medical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | | | - Andre Franke
- Institute of Clinical Molecular Biology, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel, Germany
| | - Carl A Anderson
- Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Cambridge, UK
| | - Tom H Karlsen
- Norwegian PSC Research Center, Division of Cancer Medicine, Surgery and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway,Research Institute of Internal Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - Cyriel Y Ponsioen
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rinse K Weersma
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Groningen and University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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