Beyond guilty by association at scale: searching for causal variants on the basis of genome-wide summary statistics

Understanding the causal genetic architecture of complex phenotypes is essential for future research into disease mechanisms and potential therapies. Here, we present a novel framework for genome-wide detection of sets of variants that carry non-redundant information on the phenotypes and are therefore more likely to be causal in a biological sense. Crucially, our framework requires only summary statistics obtained from standard genome-wide marginal association testing. The described approach, implemented in open-source software, is also computationally efficient, requiring less than 15 minutes on a single CPU to perform genome-wide analysis. Through extensive genome-wide simulation studies, we show that the method can substantially outperform usual two-stage marginal association testing and fine-mapping procedures in precision and recall. In applications to a meta-analysis of ten large-scale genetic studies of Alzheimer's disease (AD), we identified 82 loci associated with AD, including 37 additional loci missed by conventional GWAS pipeline. The identified putative causal variants achieve state-of-the-art agreement with massively parallel reporter assays and CRISPR-Cas9 experiments. Additionally, we applied the method to a retrospective analysis of 67 large-scale GWAS summary statistics since 2013 for a variety of phenotypes. Results reveal the method's capacity to robustly discover additional loci for polygenic traits and pinpoint potential causal variants underpinning each locus beyond conventional GWAS pipeline, contributing to a deeper understanding of complex genetic architectures in post-GWAS analyses.

Controlled Variable Selection from Summary Statistics Only? A Solution via GhostKnockoffs and Penalized Regression

Identifying which variables do influence a response while controlling false positives pervades statistics and data science. In this paper, we consider a scenario in which we only have access to summary statistics, such as the values of marginal empirical correlations between each dependent variable of potential interest and the response. This situation may arise due to privacy concerns, e.g., to avoid the release of sensitive genetic information. We extend GhostKnockoffs He et al. [2022] and introduce variable selection methods based on penalized regression achieving false discovery rate (FDR) control. We report empirical results in extensive simulation studies, demonstrating enhanced performance over previous work. We also apply our methods to genome-wide association studies of Alzheimer's disease, and evidence a significant improvement in power.

Conformalized survival analysis

In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on conformal prediction, which can wrap around any survival prediction algorithm to produce calibrated, covariate-dependent lower predictive bounds on survival times. In the Type I right-censoring setting, when the censoring times are completely exogenous, the lower predictive bounds have guaranteed coverage in finite samples without any assumptions other than that of operating on independent and identically distributed data points. Under a more general conditionally independent censoring assumption, the bounds satisfy a doubly robust property which states the following: marginal coverage is approximately guaranteed if either the censoring mechanism or the conditional survival function is estimated well. The validity and efficiency of our procedure are demonstrated on synthetic data and real COVID-19 data from the UK Biobank.

GhostKnockoff inference empowers identification of putative causal variants in genome-wide association studies

Recent advances in genome sequencing and imputation technologies provide an exciting opportunity to comprehensively study the contribution of genetic variants to complex phenotypes. However, our ability to translate genetic discoveries into mechanistic insights remains limited at this point. In this paper, we propose an efficient knockoff-based method, GhostKnockoff, for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that leads to improved power and ability to prioritize putative causal variants relative to conventional GWAS approaches. The method requires only Z-scores from conventional GWAS and hence can be easily applied to enhance existing and future studies. The method can also be applied to meta-analysis of multiple GWAS allowing for arbitrary sample overlap. We demonstrate its performance using empirical simulations and two applications: (1) a meta-analysis for Alzheimer's disease comprising nine overlapping large-scale GWAS, whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing studies and (2) analysis of 1403 binary phenotypes from the UK Biobank data in 408,961 samples of European ancestry. Our results demonstrate that GhostKnockoff can identify putatively functional variants with weaker statistical effects that are missed by conventional association tests.

Searching for robust associations with a multi-environment knockoff filter

This paper develops a method based on model-X knockoffs to find conditional associations that are consistent across environments, controlling the false discovery rate. The motivation for this problem is that large data sets may contain numerous associations that are statistically significant and yet misleading, as they are induced by confounders or sampling imperfections. However, associations replicated under different conditions may be more interesting. In fact, consistency sometimes provably leads to valid causal inferences even if conditional associations do not. While the proposed method is widely applicable, this paper highlights its relevance to genome-wide association studies, in which robustness across populations with diverse ancestries mitigates confounding due to unmeasured variants. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by simulations and applications to the UK Biobank data.

False discovery rate control in genome-wide association studies with population structure

We present a comprehensive statistical framework to analyze data from genome-wide association studies of polygenic traits, producing interpretable findings while controlling the false discovery rate. In contrast with standard approaches, our method can leverage sophisticated multivariate algorithms but makes no parametric assumptions about the unknown relation between genotypes and phenotype. Instead, we recognize that genotypes can be considered as a random sample from an appropriate model, encapsulating our knowledge of genetic inheritance and human populations. This allows the generation of imperfect copies (knockoffs) of these variables that serve as ideal negative controls, correcting for linkage disequilibrium and accounting for unknown population structure, which may be due to diverse ancestries or familial relatedness. The validity and effectiveness of our method are demonstrated by extensive simulations and by applications to the UK Biobank data. These analyses confirm our method is powerful relative to state-of-the-art alternatives, while comparisons with other studies validate most of our discoveries. Finally, fast software is made available for researchers to analyze Biobank-scale datasets.

Multi-resolution localization of causal variants across the genome

In the statistical analysis of genome-wide association data, it is challenging to precisely localize the variants that affect complex traits, due to linkage disequilibrium, and to maximize power while limiting spurious findings. Here we report on KnockoffZoom: a flexible method that localizes causal variants at multiple resolutions by testing the conditional associations of genetic segments of decreasing width, while provably controlling the false discovery rate. Our method utilizes artificial genotypes as negative controls and is equally valid for quantitative and binary phenotypes, without requiring any assumptions about their genetic architectures. Instead, we rely on well-established genetic models of linkage disequilibrium. We demonstrate that our method can detect more associations than mixed effects models and achieve fine-mapping precision, at comparable computational cost. Lastly, we apply KnockoffZoom to data from 350k subjects in the UK Biobank and report many new findings.

EigenPrism: inference for high dimensional signal-to-noise ratios

Consider the following three important problems in statistical inference, namely, constructing confidence intervals for (1) the error of a high-dimensional (p > n) regression estimator, (2) the linear regression noise level, and (3) the genetic signal-to-noise ratio of a continuous-valued trait (related to the heritability). All three problems turn out to be closely related to the little-studied problem of performing inference on the [Formula: see text]-norm of the signal in high-dimensional linear regression. We derive a novel procedure for this, which is asymptotically correct when the covariates are multivariate Gaussian and produces valid confidence intervals in finite samples as well. The procedure, called EigenPrism, is computationally fast and makes no assumptions on coefficient sparsity or knowledge of the noise level. We investigate the width of the EigenPrism confidence intervals, including a comparison with a Bayesian setting in which our interval is just 5% wider than the Bayes credible interval. We are then able to unify the three aforementioned problems by showing that the EigenPrism procedure with only minor modifications is able to make important contributions to all three. We also investigate the robustness of coverage and find that the method applies in practice and in finite samples much more widely than just the case of multivariate Gaussian covariates. Finally, we apply EigenPrism to a genetic dataset to estimate the genetic signal-to-noise ratio for a number of continuous phenotypes.

Low-rank plus sparse matrix decomposition for accelerated dynamic MRI with separation of background and dynamic components

PURPOSE

To apply the low-rank plus sparse (L+S) matrix decomposition model to reconstruct undersampled dynamic MRI as a superposition of background and dynamic components in various problems of clinical interest.

THEORY AND METHODS

The L+S model is natural to represent dynamic MRI data. Incoherence between k-t space (acquisition) and the singular vectors of L and the sparse domain of S is required to reconstruct undersampled data. Incoherence between L and S is required for robust separation of background and dynamic components. Multicoil L+S reconstruction is formulated using a convex optimization approach, where the nuclear norm is used to enforce low rank in L and the l1 norm is used to enforce sparsity in S. Feasibility of the L+S reconstruction was tested in several dynamic MRI experiments with true acceleration, including cardiac perfusion, cardiac cine, time-resolved angiography, and abdominal and breast perfusion using Cartesian and radial sampling.

RESULTS

The L+S model increased compressibility of dynamic MRI data and thus enabled high-acceleration factors. The inherent background separation improved background suppression performance compared to conventional data subtraction, which is sensitive to motion.

CONCLUSION

The high acceleration and background separation enabled by L+S promises to enhance spatial and temporal resolution and to enable background suppression without the need of subtraction or modeling.

Improving IMRT delivery efficiency with reweighted L1-minimization for inverse planning

PURPOSE

This study presents an improved technique to further simplify the fluence-map in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) inverse planning, thereby reducing plan complexity and improving delivery efficiency, while maintaining the plan quality.

METHODS

First-order total-variation (TV) minimization (min.) based on L1-norm has been proposed to reduce the complexity of fluence-map in IMRT by generating sparse fluence-map variations. However, with stronger dose sparing to the critical structures, the inevitable increase in the fluence-map complexity can lead to inefficient dose delivery. Theoretically, L0-min. is the ideal solution for the sparse signal recovery problem, yet practically intractable due to its nonconvexity of the objective function. As an alternative, the authors use the iteratively reweighted L1-min. technique to incorporate the benefits of the L0-norm into the tractability of L1-min. The weight multiplied to each element is inversely related to the magnitude of the corresponding element, which is iteratively updated by the reweighting process. The proposed penalizing process combined with TV min. further improves sparsity in the fluence-map variations, hence ultimately enhancing the delivery efficiency. To validate the proposed method, this work compares three treatment plans obtained from quadratic min. (generally used in clinic IMRT), conventional TV min., and our proposed reweighted TV min. techniques, implemented by a large-scale L1-solver (template for first-order conic solver), for five patient clinical data. Criteria such as conformation number (CN), modulation index (MI), and estimated treatment time are employed to assess the relationship between the plan quality and delivery efficiency.

RESULTS

The proposed method yields simpler fluence-maps than the quadratic and conventional TV based techniques. To attain a given CN and dose sparing to the critical organs for 5 clinical cases, the proposed method reduces the number of segments by 10-15 and 30-35, relative to TV min. and quadratic min. based plans, while MIs decreases by about 20%-30% and 40%-60% over the plans by two existing techniques, respectively. With such conditions, the total treatment time of the plans obtained from our proposed method can be reduced by 12-30 s and 30-80 s mainly due to greatly shorter multileaf collimator (MLC) traveling time in IMRT step-and-shoot delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

The reweighted L1-minimization technique provides a promising solution to simplify the fluence-map variations in IMRT inverse planning. It improves the delivery efficiency by reducing the entire segments and treatment time, while maintaining the plan quality in terms of target conformity and critical structure sparing.