Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021

Epidemic disease can spread during mass gatherings. We assessed the impact of a type of mass gathering about which comprehensive data were available on the local-area trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. Here we examined five types of political event in 2020 and 2021: the US primary elections, the US Senate special election in Georgia, the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Donald Trump's political rallies and the Black Lives Matter protests. Our study period encompassed over 700 such mass gatherings during multiple phases of the pandemic. We used data from the 48 contiguous states, representing 3,108 counties, and we implemented a novel extension of a recently developed non-parametric, generalized difference-in-difference estimator with a (high-quality) matching procedure for panel data to estimate the average effect of the gatherings on local mortality and other outcomes. There were no statistically significant increases in cases, deaths or a measure of epidemic transmissibility (Rt) in a 40-day period following large-scale political activities. We estimated small and statistically non-significant effects, corresponding to an average difference of -0.0567 deaths (95% CI = -0.319, 0.162) and 8.275 cases (95% CI = -1.383, 20.7) on each day for counties that held mass gatherings for political expression compared to matched control counties. In sum, there is no statistical evidence of a material increase in local COVID-19 deaths, cases or transmissibility after mass gatherings for political expression during the first 2 years of the pandemic in the USA. This may relate to the specific manner in which such activities are typically conducted.

Neural computations of threat in the aftermath of combat trauma

By combining computational, morphological, and functional analyses, this study relates latent markers of associative threat learning to overt post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in combat veterans. Using reversal learning, we found that symptomatic veterans showed greater physiological adjustment to cues that did not predict what they had expected, indicating greater sensitivity to prediction errors for negative outcomes. This exaggerated weighting of prediction errors shapes the dynamic learning rate (associability) and value of threat predictive cues. The degree to which the striatum tracked the associability partially mediated the positive correlation between prediction-error weights and PTSD symptoms, suggesting that both increased prediction-error weights and decreased striatal tracking of associability independently contribute to PTSD symptoms. Furthermore, decreased neural tracking of value in the amygdala, in addition to smaller amygdala volume, independently corresponded to higher PTSD symptom severity. These results provide evidence for distinct neurocomputational contributions to PTSD symptoms.