Extending approximate Bayesian computation with supervised machine learning to infer demographic history from genetic polymorphisms using DIYABC Random Forest

Simulation-based methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are well-adapted to the analysis of complex scenarios of populations and species genetic history. In this context, supervised machine learning (SML) methods provide attractive statistical solutions to conduct efficient inferences about scenario choice and parameter estimation. The Random Forest methodology (RF) is a powerful ensemble of SML algorithms used for classification or regression problems. Random Forest allows conducting inferences at a low computational cost, without preliminary selection of the relevant components of the ABC summary statistics, and bypassing the derivation of ABC tolerance levels. We have implemented a set of RF algorithms to process inferences using simulated data sets generated from an extended version of the population genetic simulator implemented in DIYABC v2.1.0. The resulting computer package, named DIYABC Random Forest v1.0, integrates two functionalities into a user-friendly interface: the simulation under custom evolutionary scenarios of different types of molecular data (microsatellites, DNA sequences or SNPs) and RF treatments including statistical tools to evaluate the power and accuracy of inferences. We illustrate the functionalities of DIYABC Random Forest v1.0 for both scenario choice and parameter estimation through the analysis of pseudo-observed and real data sets corresponding to pool-sequencing and individual-sequencing SNP data sets. Because of the properties inherent to the implemented RF methods and the large feature vector (including various summary statistics and their linear combinations) available for SNP data, DIYABC Random Forest v1.0 can efficiently contribute to the analysis of large SNP data sets to make inferences about complex population genetic histories.

The genome sequence of the grape phylloxera provides insights into the evolution, adaptation, and invasion routes of an iconic pest

BACKGROUND

Although native to North America, the invasion of the aphid-like grape phylloxera Daktulosphaira vitifoliae across the globe altered the course of grape cultivation. For the past 150 years, viticulture relied on grafting-resistant North American Vitis species as rootstocks, thereby limiting genetic stocks tolerant to other stressors such as pathogens and climate change. Limited understanding of the insect genetics resulted in successive outbreaks across the globe when rootstocks failed. Here we report the 294-Mb genome of D. vitifoliae as a basic tool to understand host plant manipulation, nutritional endosymbiosis, and enhance global viticulture.

RESULTS

Using a combination of genome, RNA, and population resequencing, we found grape phylloxera showed high duplication rates since its common ancestor with aphids, but similarity in most metabolic genes, despite lacking obligate nutritional symbioses and feeding from parenchyma. Similarly, no enrichment occurred in development genes in relation to viviparity. However, phylloxera evolved > 2700 unique genes that resemble putative effectors and are active during feeding. Population sequencing revealed the global invasion began from the upper Mississippi River in North America, spread to Europe and from there to the rest of the world.

CONCLUSIONS

The grape phylloxera genome reveals genetic architecture relative to the evolution of nutritional endosymbiosis, viviparity, and herbivory. The extraordinary expansion in effector genes also suggests novel adaptations to plant feeding and how insects induce complex plant phenotypes, for instance galls. Finally, our understanding of the origin of this invasive species and its genome provide genetics resources to alleviate rootstock bottlenecks restricting the advancement of viticulture.

Biases of STRUCTURE software when exploring introduction routes of invasive species

Population genetic methods are widely used to retrace the introduction routes of invasive species. The unsupervised Bayesian clustering algorithm implemented in STRUCTURE is amongst the most frequently used of these methods, but its ability to provide reliable information about introduction routes has never been assessed. We simulated microsatellite datasets to evaluate the extent to which the results provided by STRUCTURE were misleading for the inference of introduction routes. We focused on an invasion scenario involving one native and two independently introduced populations, because it is the sole scenario that can be rejected when obtaining a particular clustering with a STRUCTURE analysis at K = 2 (two clusters). Results were classified as "misleading" or "non-misleading". We investigated the influence of effective size, bottleneck severity and number of loci on the type and frequency of misleading results. We showed that misleading STRUCTURE results were obtained for 10% of all simulated datasets. Our results highlighted two categories of misleading output. The first occurs when the native population has a low level of diversity. In this case, the two introduced populations may be very similar, despite their independent introduction histories. The second category results from convergence issues in STRUCTURE for K = 2, with strong bottleneck severity and/or large numbers of loci resulting in high levels of differentiation between the three populations. Overall, the risk of being misled by STRUCTURE in the context of introduction routes inferences is moderate, but it is important to remain cautious when low genetic diversity or genuine multimodality between runs are involved.

Cannibalism in invasive, native and biocontrol populations of the harlequin ladybird

Background

Cannibalism is widespread in both vertebrates and invertebrates but its extent is variable between and within species. Cannibalism depends on population density and nutritional conditions, and could be beneficial during colonisation of new environments. Empirical studies are needed to determine whether this trait might facilitate invasion of a new area in natural systems. We investigated whether the propensity for cannibalism in H. axyridis differs both between native and invasive populations and between invasive populations from the core and from the front of the invasive area in Western Europe. We also compared the propensity for cannibalism of these natural populations with that of laboratory-reared biocontrol populations. We measured the cannibalism rates of eggs by first instar larvae and adult females at two different individual densities of ladybirds from three types of population (invasive, native and biocontrol), in laboratory-controlled conditions.

Results

Cannibalism was significantly greater in larvae from invasive populations compared to native or biocontrol populations, but there was no difference in cannibalism rates between populations from the core or front of the invaded range. Cannibalism was significantly lower in larvae from biocontrol populations compared to wild (invasive and native) populations. No differences in cannibalism rates of adult females were found between any populations. While high population density significantly increased cannibalism in both larvae and adults, the norm of reaction of cannibalism to individual density did not change significantly during the invasion and/or laboratory rearing processes.

Conclusion

This study is the first to provide evidence for a higher propensity for cannibalism in invasive populations compared to native ones. Our experiments also shed light on the difference in cannibalism evolution with respect to life stages. However, we are still at an early stage in understanding the underlying mechanisms and several different research perspectives are needed to determine whether the higher propensity for cannibalism is a general feature of the invasion process.

Rapid increase in dispersal during range expansion in the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis

The evolutionary trajectories associated with demographic, genetic and spatial disequilibrium have become an issue of growing interest in population biology. Invasive species provide unique opportunities to explore the impact of recent range expansion on life-history traits, making it possible to test for a spatial arrangement of dispersal abilities along the expanding range, in particular. We carried out controlled experiments in laboratory conditions to test the hypothesis of an increase in dispersal capacity with range expansion in Harmonia axyridis, a ladybird that has been invading Europe since 2001. We found a marked increase in the flight speed of the insects from the core to the front of the invasion range in two independent sampling transects. By contrast, we found that two other traits associated with dispersal (endurance and motivation to fly off) did not follow the same spatial gradient. Our results provide a striking illustration of the way in which predictable directional genetic changes may occur rapidly for some traits associated with dispersal during biological invasions. We discuss the consequences of our results for invasion dynamics and the evolutionary outcomes of spatially expanding populations.

Investigating the genetic load of an emblematic invasive species: the case of the invasive harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis

Introduction events can lead to admixture between genetically differentiated populations and bottlenecks in population size. These processes can alter the adaptive potential of invasive species by shaping genetic variation, but more importantly, they can also directly affect mean population fitness either increasing it or decreasing it. Which outcome is observed depends on the structure of the genetic load of the species. The ladybird Harmonia axyridis is a good example of invasive species where introduced populations have gone through admixture and bottleneck events. We used laboratory experiments to manipulate the relatedness among H. axyridis parental individuals to assess the possibility for heterosis or outbreeding depression in F₁ generation offspring for two traits related to fitness (lifetime performance and generation time). We found that inter-populations crosses had no major impact on the lifetime performance of the offspring produced by individuals from either native or invasive populations. Significant outbreeding depression was observed only for crosses between native populations for generation time. The absence of observed heterosis is indicative of a low occurrence of fixed deleterious mutations within both the native and invasive populations of H. axyridis. The observed deterioration of fitness in native inter-population crosses most likely results from genetic incompatibilities between native genomic backgrounds. We discuss the implications of these results for the structure of genetic load in H. axyridis in the light of the available information regarding the introduction history of this species.

Secondary contact and admixture between independently invading populations of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera in Europe

The western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is one of the most destructive pests of corn in North America and is currently invading Europe. The two major invasive outbreaks of rootworm in Europe have occurred, in North-West Italy and in Central and South-Eastern Europe. These two outbreaks originated from independent introductions from North America. Secondary contact probably occurred in North Italy between these two outbreaks, in 2008. We used 13 microsatellite markers to conduct a population genetics study, to demonstrate that this geographic contact resulted in a zone of admixture in the Italian region of Veneto. We show that i) genetic variation is greater in the contact zone than in the parental outbreaks; ii) several signs of admixture were detected in some Venetian samples, in a bayesian analysis of the population structure and in an approximate bayesian computation analysis of historical scenarios and, finally, iii) allelic frequency clines were observed at microsatellite loci. The contact between the invasive outbreaks in North-West Italy and Central and South-Eastern Europe resulted in a zone of admixture, with particular characteristics. The evolutionary implications of the existence of a zone of admixture in Northern Italy and their possible impact on the invasion success of the western corn rootworm are discussed.

Inferring the origin of populations introduced from a genetically structured native range by approximate Bayesian computation: case study of the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis

Correct identification of the source population of an invasive species is a prerequisite for testing hypotheses concerning the factors responsible for biological invasions. The native area of invasive species may be large, poorly known and/or genetically structured. Because the actual source population may not have been sampled, studies based on molecular markers may generate incorrect conclusions about the origin of introduced populations. In this study, we characterized the genetic structure of the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis in its native area using various population genetic statistics and methods. We found that native area of H. axyridis most probably consisted of two geographically distinct genetic clusters located in eastern and western Asia. We then performed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analyses on controlled simulated microsatellite data sets to evaluate (i) the risk of selecting incorrect introduction scenarios, including admixture between sources, when the populations of the native area are genetically structured and sampling is incomplete and (ii) the ability of ABC analysis to minimize such risks by explicitly including unsampled populations in the scenarios compared. Finally, we performed additional ABC analyses on real microsatellite data sets to retrace the origin of biocontrol and invasive populations of H. axyridis, taking into account the possibility that the structured native area may have been incompletely sampled. We found that the invasive population in eastern North America, which has served as the bridgehead for worldwide invasion by H. axyridis, was probably formed by an admixture between the eastern and western native clusters. This admixture may have facilitated adaptation of the bridgehead population.

Experimental evidence for the phenotypic impact of admixture between wild and biocontrol Asian ladybird (Harmonia axyridis) involved in the European invasion

Hybridization can fuel evolutionary processes during biological invasions. The harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis has long been used as a biocontrol agent before the species became invasive worldwide. Previous analysis based on microsatellite data has shown that European invasive populations bear traces of admixture between an eastern North American source, which is at the origin of the worldwide invasion, and biocontrol strains used in Europe. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that this early admixture event may have fostered the European invasion by impacting on the phenotypes of wild European populations. Mean life history traits of experimental F(1) hybrids are compared with pure parental sources and wild European crosses. Our results reveal a biased impact whereby North American beetles benefitted from being admixed with European biocontrol strains. Resemblance between experimental hybrids and wild European invasive crosses further suggests a long-lasting effect of admixture that may still be at work and fostering invasiveness.

Can things get worse when an invasive species hybridizes? The harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis in France as a case study

So far, only a few studies have explicitly investigated the consequences of admixture for the adaptative potential of invasive populations. We addressed this question in the invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis. After decades of use as a biological control agent against aphids in Europe and North America, H. axyridis recently became invasive in four continents and has now spread widely in Europe. Despite this invasion, a flightless strain is still sold as a biological control agent in Europe. However, crosses between flightless and invasive individuals yield individuals able to fly, as the flightless phenotype is caused by a single recessive mutation. We investigated the potential consequences of admixture between invasive and flightless biological control individuals on the invasion in France. We used three complementary approaches: (i) population genetics, (ii) a mate-choice experiment, and (iii) a quantitative genetics experiment. The invasive French population and the biological control strain showed substantial genetic differentiation, but there are no reproductive barriers between the two. Hybrids displayed a shorter development time, a larger size and a higher genetic variance for survival in starvation conditions than invasive individuals. We discuss the potential consequences of our results with respect to the invasion of H. axyridis in Europe.

Bridgehead effect in the worldwide invasion of the biocontrol harlequin ladybird

Recent studies of the routes of worldwide introductions of alien organisms suggest that many widespread invasions could have stemmed not from the native range, but from a particularly successful invasive population, which serves as the source of colonists for remote new territories. We call here this phenomenon the invasive bridgehead effect. Evaluating the likelihood of such a scenario is heuristically challenging. We solved this problem by using approximate Bayesian computation methods to quantitatively compare complex invasion scenarios based on the analysis of population genetics (microsatellite variation) and historical (first observation dates) data. We applied this approach to the Harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis (HA), a coccinellid native to Asia that was repeatedly introduced as a biocontrol agent without becoming established for decades. We show that the recent burst of worldwide invasions of HA followed a bridgehead scenario, in which an invasive population in eastern North America acted as the source of the colonists that invaded the European, South American and African continents, with some admixture with a biocontrol strain in Europe. This demonstration of a mechanism of invasion via a bridgehead has important implications both for invasion theory (i.e., a single evolutionary shift in the bridgehead population versus multiple changes in case of introduced populations becoming invasive independently) and for ongoing efforts to manage invasions by alien organisms (i.e., heightened vigilance against invasive bridgeheads).

Dispersal strategies of phytophagous insects at a local scale: adaptive potential of aphids in an agricultural environment

Background

The spread of agriculture greatly modified the selective pressures exerted by plants on phytophagous insects, by providing these insects with a high-level resource, structured in time and space. The life history, behavioural and physiological traits of some insect species may have evolved in response to these changes, allowing them to crowd on crops and to become agricultural pests. Dispersal, which is one of these traits, is a key concept in evolutionary biology but has been over-simplified in most theoretical studies. We evaluated the impact of the local-scale dispersal strategy of phytophagous insects on their fitness, using an individual-based model to simulate population dynamics and dispersal between leaves and plants, by walking and flying, of the aphid Aphis gossypii, a major agricultural pest, in a melon field. We compared the optimal values for dispersal parameters in the model with the corresponding observed values in experimental trials.

Results

We show that the rates of walking and flying disperser production on leaves were the most important traits determining the fitness criteria, whereas dispersal distance and the clustering of flying dispersers on the target plant had no effect. We further show that the effect of dispersal parameters on aphid fitness depended strongly on plant characteristics.

Conclusion

Parameters defining the dispersal strategies of aphids at a local scale are key components of the fitness of these insects and may thus be essential in the adaptation to agricultural environments that are structured in space and time. Moreover, the fact that the effect of dispersal parameters on aphid fitness depends strongly on plant characteristics suggests that traits defining aphid dispersal strategies may be a cornerstone of host-plant specialization.