Outcome Reporting Bias in Clinical Trials Researching Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Outcome reporting bias occurs when publication of trial results is dependent on clinical significance, thereby threatening the validity of trial results. Research on immunomodulatory drugs in multiple sclerosis has thrived in recent years. We aim to comprehensively examine to what extent outcome reporting bias is present in these trials and the possible underlying factors.

METHODS

We identified clinical trials evaluating the efficacy and safety of immunomodulatory drugs in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) registered in ClinicalTrials.gov after September 2007 and completed before the end of 2018. Information about study design, type of funding, and primary and secondary outcome measures was extracted from the registry. Timing of registration in relation to study initiation and subsequent amendments to the planned outcomes were reviewed. Publications related to these trials were identified in several bibliographic databases using the trial registration number. Registered primary and secondary outcomes were recorded for each trial and compared with outcomes in the publication describing the main outcomes of the trial.

RESULTS

A search of ClinicalTrials.gov identified 535 eligible registered clinical trials; of these, 101 had a matching publication. Discrepancies between registered and published primary and secondary outcomes were found in 95% of the trials, including discrepancies between the registered and published primary outcomes in 26 publications. Forty-four percent of the published secondary outcomes were not included in the registry. A similar proportion of registered and nonregistered reported primary efficacy outcomes were positive (favoring the intervention). Nonindustry-funded and open-label trials in MS were more prone to selective primary outcome reporting, although these findings did not reach statistical significance. Only two-thirds of the trials were registered in ClinicalTrials.gov before the trial start date, and 62% of trials made amendments in registered outcomes during or after the trial period.

DISCUSSION

Selective outcome reporting is prevalent in trials of disease-modifying drugs in people with MS. We propose methods to diminish the occurrence of this bias in future research.

Diffusion-based structural connectivity patterns of multiple sclerosis phenotypes

BACKGROUND

We aimed to describe the severity of the changes in brain diffusion-based connectivity as multiple sclerosis (MS) progresses and the microstructural characteristics of these networks that are associated with distinct MS phenotypes.

METHODS

Clinical information and brain MRIs were collected from 221 healthy individuals and 823 people with MS at 8 MAGNIMS centres. The patients were divided into four clinical phenotypes: clinically isolated syndrome, relapsing-remitting, secondary progressive and primary progressive. Advanced tractography methods were used to obtain connectivity matrices. Then, differences in whole-brain and nodal graph-derived measures, and in the fractional anisotropy of connections between groups were analysed. Support vector machine algorithms were used to classify groups.

RESULTS

Clinically isolated syndrome and relapsing-remitting patients shared similar network changes relative to controls. However, most global and local network properties differed in secondary progressive patients compared with the other groups, with lower fractional anisotropy in most connections. Primary progressive participants had fewer differences in global and local graph measures compared with clinically isolated syndrome and relapsing-remitting patients, and reductions in fractional anisotropy were only evident for a few connections. The accuracy of support vector machine to discriminate patients from healthy controls based on connection was 81%, and ranged between 64% and 74% in distinguishing among the clinical phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, brain connectivity is disrupted in MS and has differential patterns according to the phenotype. Secondary progressive is associated with more widespread changes in connectivity. Additionally, classification tasks can distinguish between MS types, with subcortical connections being the most important factor.

Association of age and inflammatory disease activity in the pivotal natalizumab clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Focal inflammatory disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) diminishes with increasing age. Here we use patient-level data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of natalizumab treatment in RRMS to investigate the association of age and inflammatory disease activity.

METHODS

We used patient-level data from the AFFIRM (natalizumab vs placebo in relapsing-remitting MS, NCT00027300) and SENTINEL (natalizumab plus interferon beta vs interferon beta in relapsing remitting MS, NCT00030966) RCTs. We determined the proportion of participants developing new T2 lesions, contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs) and relapses over 2 years of follow-up as a function of age, and investigated the association of age with time to first relapse using time-to-event analyses.

RESULTS

At baseline, there were no differences between age groups in T2 lesion volume and number of relapses in the year before inclusion. In SENTINEL, older participants had a significantly lower number of CELs. During both trials, the number of new CELs and the proportion of participants developing new CELs were significantly lower in older age groups. The number of new T2 lesions and the proportion of participants with any radiological disease activity during follow-up were also lower in older age groups, especially in the control arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age is associated with a lower prevalence and degree of focal inflammatory disease activity in treated and untreated RRMS. Our findings inform the design of RCTs, and suggest that patient age should be taken into consideration when deciding on immunomodulatory treatment in RRMS.

Spinal cord lesions and brain grey matter atrophy independently predict clinical worsening in definite multiple sclerosis: a 5-year, multicentre study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the combined contribution of brain and cervical cord damage in predicting 5-year clinical worsening in a multicentre cohort of definite multiple sclerosis (MS) patients.

METHODS

Baseline 3.0T brain and cervical cord T2-weighted and three-dimensional T1-weighted MRI was acquired in 367 patients with MS (326 relapse-onset and 41 progressive-onset) and 179 healthy controls. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was obtained at baseline and after a median follow-up of 5.1 years (IQR=4.8-5.2). At follow-up, patients were classified as clinically stable/worsened according to EDSS changes. Generalised linear mixed models identified predictors of clinical worsening, evolution to secondary progressive (SP) MS and reaching EDSS=3.0, 4.0 and 6.0 milestones at 5 years.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 120/367 (33%) patients with MS worsened clinically; 36/256 (14%) patients with relapsing-remitting evolved to SPMS. Baseline predictors of EDSS worsening were progressive-onset versus relapse-onset MS (standardised beta (β)=0.97), higher EDSS (β=0.41), higher cord lesion number (β=0.41), lower normalised cortical volume (β=-0.15) and lower cord area (β=-0.28) (C-index=0.81). Older age (β=0.86), higher EDSS (β=1.40) and cord lesion number (β=0.87) independently predicted SPMS conversion (C-index=0.91). Predictors of reaching EDSS=3.0 after 5 years were higher baseline EDSS (β=1.49), cord lesion number (β=1.02) and lower normalised cortical volume (β=-0.56) (C-index=0.88). Baseline age (β=0.30), higher EDSS (β=2.03), higher cord lesion number (β=0.66) and lower cord area (β=-0.41) predicted EDSS=4.0 (C-index=0.92). Finally, higher baseline EDSS (β=1.87) and cord lesion number (β=0.54) predicted EDSS=6.0 (C-index=0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

Spinal cord damage and, to a lesser extent, cortical volume loss helped predicting worse 5-year clinical outcomes in MS.

Longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 humoral response in MS patients with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to vaccination

INTRODUCTION

During the COVID-19 pandemic, certain disease modifying therapies (DMTs) used in multiple sclerosis (MS), such as anti-CD20 therapies, have been associated with decreased humoral responses after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Hybrid immunity, referring to immunity after both vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection might increase humoral responses.

METHODS

This was a substudy of two prospective cohort studies on SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. RBD-specific IgG titers of patients with MS and healthy controls who had experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to the first vaccination were compared with those patients and healthy controls without prior infection. Humoral responses were measured at various time points after SARS-CoV-2 infection in convalescent patients and all patients prior to the first vaccination, 28 days after the first vaccination, and 28 days after the second vaccination.

RESULTS

One hundred and two individuals [of which 34 patients with MS and DMTs (natalizumab or ocrelizumab), 30 patients without DMTs, and 38 healthy controls] were included. Fifty one of these individuals were convalescent. Median SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers were higher after the first vaccination in convalescent individuals compared with individuals without infection prior to vaccination. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody titers were comparable after the second vaccination in patients with MS with and without prior infection. However, in the convalescent ocrelizumab-treated patients, SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers did not increase after vaccinations.

CONCLUSION

In patients with MS without anti-CD20 therapies, SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination increases humoral responses after the first vaccination, similar to the healthy controls. In patients with MS treated with ocrelizumab (convalescent and non-convalescent), humoral responses remained low.

Blood platelet RNA enables the detection of multiple sclerosis

Background

In multiple sclerosis (MS), clinical assessment, MRI and cerebrospinal fluid are important in the diagnostic process. However, no blood biomarker has been confirmed as a useful tool in the diagnostic work-up.

Objectives

Blood platelets contain a rich spliced mRNA repertoire that can alter during megakaryocyte development but also during platelet formation and platelet circulation. In this proof of concept study, we evaluate the diagnostic potential of spliced blood platelet RNA for the detection of MS.

Methods

We isolated and sequenced platelet RNA of blood samples obtained from 57 MS patients and 66 age- and gender-matched healthy controls (HCs). 60% was used to develop a particle swarm-optimized (PSO) support vector machine classification algorithm. The remaining 40% served as an independent validation series.

Results

In total, 1249 RNAs with differential spliced junction expression levels were identified between platelets of MS patients as compared to HCs, including EPSTI1, IFI6, and RPS6KA3, in line with reported inflammatory signatures in the blood of MS patients. The RNAs were subsequently used as input for a MS classifier, capable of detecting MS with 80% accuracy in the independent validation series.

Conclusions

Spliced platelet RNA may enable the blood-based diagnosis of MS, warranting large-scale validation.