Development and validation of predictive model for long-term hospitalization, readmission, and in-hospital death of patients over 60 years old

Objective

To develop and validate a high-risk predictive model that identifies, at least, one common adverse event in older population: early readmission (up to 30 days after discharge), long hospital stays (10 days or more) or in-hospital deaths.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study including patients aged 60 years or older (n=340) admitted at a 630-beds tertiary hospital, located in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A predictive model of high-risk indication was developed by analyzing logistical regression models. This model prognostic capacity was assessed by measuring accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence intervals were also obtained to assess the discriminatory power of the model. Internal validation of the prognostic model was performed in a separate sample (n=168).

Results

Statistically significant predictors were identified, such as current Barthel Index, number of medications in use, presence of diabetes mellitus, difficulty chewing or swallowing, extensive surgery, and dementia. The study observed discrimination model acceptance in the construction sample 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.83) and good calibration. The characteristics of the validation samples were similar, and the receiver operating characteristic curve area was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.598-0.776). We could assess an older patient’s adverse health events during hospitalization after admission.

Conclusion

A predictive model with acceptable discrimination was obtained, with satisfactory results for early readmission (30 days), long hospital stays (10 days), or in-hospital death.

The Effect of a Single Bout of Resistance Exercise with Blood Flow Restriction on Arterial Stiffness in Older People with Slow Gait Speed: A Pilot Randomized Study

Purpose: Low-intensity resistance exercise with moderate blood-flow restriction (LIRE-BFR) is a new trending form of exercises worldwide. The purpose of this study was to compare the acute effect of a single bout of traditional resistance exercise (TRE) and LIRE-BFR on arterial stiffness in older people with slow gait speeds. Methods: This was a randomized, controlled clinical study. Seventeen older adults (3 men; 14 women; 82 ± 5 years old) completed a session of TRE (n = 7) or LIRE-BFR (n = 10). At baseline and after 60 min post-exercise, participants were subject to blood pressure measurement, heart rate measurements and a determination of arterial stiffness parameters. Results: There was no significant difference between the TRE and LIRE-BFR group at baseline. Pulse-wave velocity increased in both groups (p < 0.05) post-exercise with no between-group differences. Both exercise modalities did not produce any adverse events. The increase in systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, augmentation pressure and pulse wave velocity (all p > 0.05) were similar after both TRE and LIRE-BFR. Conclusion: TRE and LIRE-BFR had similar responses regarding hemodynamic parameters and pulse-wave velocity in older people with slow gait speed. Long-term studies should assess the cardiovascular risk and safety of LIRE-BFR training in this population.

Association between respiratory capacity, quality of life and cognitive function in elderly individuals

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between respiratory capacity, quality of life and cognitive function in elderly individuals.

METHODS

The sample included 386 elderly individuals (232 women). Respiratory capacity assessment was based on maximal expiratory pressure measured at peak expiratory flow. Subjects were classified according to peak expiratory flow values adjusted for sex, age and height of individuals with normal (peak expiratory flow curve <80% and >60%) or reduced (peak expiratory flow curve < 60%) respiratory capacity. The World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire and the Mini-Mental State Examination were used to assess quality of life and cognitive function, respectively.

RESULTS

Elderly women with reduced respiratory capacity scored lower on the Mini-Mental State Examination (p=0.048) and quality of life questionnaire (p=0.040) compared to those with normal respiratory capacity. These differences were not observed in men (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION

Reduced respiratory capacity was associated with poorer quality of life and cognitive function in elderly women. These associations were not observed in elderly men.

An interdisciplinary approach aiding the diagnosis of primary progressive aphasia: A case report

Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is one of the most common causes of early-onset dementia with primary progressive aphasia (PPA) being the second-most-frequent form of this degenerative disease. Despite the similarity with progressive dementia (especially in early stages of Alzheimer´s disease), three types of PPA can be differentiated: semantic, agrammatic and logopenic (subtype discussed in this study). To date, no medications have been shown to improve or stabilize cognitive deficits in patients with PPA. We report the case of a 62-year-old woman with difficulty naming objects and planning. An interdisciplinary evaluation, including imaging and lab exams, together with neuropsychological and personality assessments, confirmed that the patient had logopenic PPA on the basis of repetition difficulty, phonemic and semantic paraphasias and absence of agrammatism. The timing of the assessment in this case, along with the resources available and commitment of an integrated interdisciplinary team, allowed a differential diagnosis (from other classical dementias) to be reached.

Persistent Depressive Symptoms are Independent Predictors of Low-Grade Inflammation Onset Among Healthy Individuals

Background

Depressive symptoms are independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with non-diagnosed CVD. The mechanisms underlying this association, however, remain unclear. Inflammation has been indicated as a possible mechanistic link between depression and CVD.

Objectives

This study evaluated the association between persistent depressive symptoms and the onset of low-grade inflammation.

Methods

From a database of 1,508 young (mean age: 41 years) individuals with no CVD diagnosis who underwent at least two routine health evaluations, 134 had persistent depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory - BDI ≥ 10, BDI+) and 1,374 had negative symptoms at both time points (BDI-). All participants had been submitted to repeated clinical and laboratory evaluations at a regular follow-up with an average of 26 months from baseline. Low-grade inflammation was defined as plasma high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein (CRP) concentrations > 3 mg/L. The outcome was the incidence of low-grade inflammation evaluated by the time of the second clinical evaluation.

Results

The incidence of low-grade inflammation was more frequently observed in the BDI+ group compared to the BDI- group (20.9% vs. 11.4%; p = 0.001). After adjusting for sex, age, waist circumference, body mass index, levels of physical activity, smoking, and prevalence of metabolic syndrome, persistent depressive symptoms remained an independent predictor of low-grade inflammation onset (OR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.03-3.02; p = 0.04).

Conclusions

Persistent depressive symptoms were independently associated with low-grade inflammation onset among healthy individuals.

Influence of peripheral arterial disease on daily living activities in elderly women

Aging has been associated with decreases in physical and cognitive functions. Peripheral artery disease (PAD) has been associated with further impairments in these functions, especially in women. However, no detailed information is available indicating whether PAD leads to further impairment in these functions in elderly women. Thus, the aims of this study were 1) to compare the capacity to perform daily living activities between elderly women with and without PAD and 2) to identify the factors related with the performance in daily activities. Twenty-seven elderly women with PAD and 22 elderly non-PAD women were surveyed in a geriatric hospital. Women aged ≥65 years and with no signal of dementia were included. PAD was identified by the ankle-brachial index ≤0.90, whereas elderly non-PAD women presented ankle-brachial index >1.0. Patients were interviewed to obtain information regarding basic (Katz questionnaire) and instrumental daily living activities (Lawton-Brody scale) and performed the mini-mental state examination, handgrip strength test, and timed up and go tests. PAD and non-PAD women had similar age, clinical characteristics, handgrip strength test, and cognitive function (P > 0.05). The capacity to perform basic and instrumental daily living activities was similar between PAD and non-PAD women (P > 0.05). In PAD and non-PAD, the instrumental daily living activities were significantly correlated with cognitive function (r = 0.44, P < 0.05 and r = 0.74 and P < 0.05, respectively). PAD elderly women present similar capacity to perform basic and instrumental daily activities than non-PAD women. In addition, in both groups, the capacity to perform instrumental daily activities was related with cognitive function.

Peak expiratory flow mediates the relationship between handgrip strength and timed up and go performance in elderly women, but not men

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to verify if there is sex difference in the associations among handgrip strength, peak expiratory flow (PEF) and timed up and go (TUG) test results.

METHODS

The sample included 288 consecutive elderly men (n=93) and women (n=195). Functional capacity was measured using the TUG test, and muscle strength was measured based on handgrip. Moreover, as a measure of current health status, PEF was evaluated. Linear regression procedures were performed to analyze the relationships between handgrip and both PEF and TUG test results, with adjustment for confounders, and to identify the possible mediating role of PEF in the association between handgrip strength and TUG test results.

RESULTS

In men, handgrip strength was associated with both PEF and TUG performance (p<0.01). After adjustment for PEF, the relationship between handgrip strength and TUG performance remained significant. In women, handgrip strength was also associated with both PEF and TUG performance (p<0.01). However, after adjustment for PEF, the relationship between handgrip strength and TUG performance was no longer significant.

CONCLUSION

Mobility in the elderly is sex dependent. In particular, PEF mediates the relationship between handgrip strength and TUG performance in women, but not in men.

An outbreak of norovirus infection in a long-term care facility in Brazil

ABSTRACT Objective: To describe a norovirus outbreak in a Brazilian long-term care facility from July 8 to 29, 2005. Methods: In the first 48 to 72 hours after onset of symptoms in inpatients and employees, the main infection control strategies were staff education, emphasis on hand washing, implementing contact precautions up to 48-72 hours after resolution of symptoms, complete cleaning of the rooms and exclusion of symptomatic employees from work until 48-72 hours after resolution of their symptoms. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the norovirus infections were described based on chart review. Results: The incidence among inpatients and employees was 41.3% and 16.25%, respectively. The main symptom was diarrhea, affecting 100% of inpatients and employees. Forty-four percent of specimens were positive by RIDASCREEN® Norovirus analyses, and identified as norovirus genogroup GII. Seventy percent of inpatients were women and their age range was 51-98 years. Inpatients had in average two comorbid conditions – 87.3% with cardiovascular or chronic pulmonary condition and 47.6% with dementia. There was not relapse or death. Conclusions: The early infection-control measures associated to surveillance are required to keep long-term care facilities free of noroviruses and to protect those who are most vulnerable.

Effects of home-based exercise training on neurovascular control in patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND

The effect of home-based exercise training on neurovascular control in heart failure patients is unknown.

AIMS

To test the hypothesis that home-based training would maintain the reduction in muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) and forearm vascular resistance (FVR) acquired after supervised training.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Twenty-nine patients (54+/-1.9 years, EF<40%) were randomised into two groups: untrained control (n=12) and exercise trained (n=17). Both groups underwent assessment of Quality of Life (QoL), MSNA, and forearm blood flow. The exercise group underwent a 4-month supervised training program followed by 4 months of home-based training. After the initial 4 months of training, patients in the exercise group showed a significant increase in peak VO(2) and reduction in MSNA, compared to the untrained group, but this was not maintained during 4 months of home-based training. In contrast, the decrease in FVR (56+/-3 vs. 46+/-4 vs. 40+/-2 U, p=0.008) and the improvement in QOL that were achieved during supervised training were maintained during home-based training.

CONCLUSIONS

Home-based training following supervised training is a safe strategy to maintain improvements in QoL and reduction in FVR in chronic heart failure patients, but is an inadequate strategy to maintain fitness as estimated by peak VO(2) or reduction in neurohumoral activation.