Cardiovascular risk in the elderly population of Spain. The EPICARDIAN risk score

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular risk estimation in people over 70 years of age is problematic. Most scores have been created based on cohorts of middle-aged people, with an underrepresentation of older adults. The predictive power of classical cardiovascular risk factors declines with age. The aim of this work is to develop a specific score for estimating cardiovascular risk among the elderly population in Spain.

METHODS

This work is a population-based cohort established in 1995.

SETTING

Three geographical areas of Spain (Madrid, Ávila, and Lugo).

PARTICIPANTS

3,729 people older than 64 years with no cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Suspected fatal and nonfatal CVD (both coronary heart disease and stroke) were investigated annually and confirmed using the WHO-MONICA criteria. All participants were followed-up on until occurrence of a first CVD event, until death, or until December 31, 2015.

RESULTS

Age was the strongest predictor of CVD at 10 years in both men and women. In men, variables associated with CVD were high blood pressure treatment (HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.067-1.710), diabetes (HR: 1.359; 95% CI: 0.997-1.852), and smoking (HR: 1.207; 95% CI: 0.945-1.541) and in women, the variables were smoking (HR: 1.881; 95% CI: 1.356-2.609) and diabetes (HR: 1.285; 95% CI: 0.967-1.707). Total cholesterol did not increase the risk of CVD in men or women. However, total cholesterol levels >200 mg/dL were inversely associated with 10-year risk of CVD in men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly Spanish men, total CVD at 10 years is significantly increased by age, diabetes, and antihypertensive treatment and in elderly Spanish women by diabetes and smoking. Total cholesterol levels did not increase the risk of CVD, particularly in males.

CsA-based post-graft immunosuppression: the main factor for improving outcome of allografted patients with acquired aplastic anemia. A retrospective survey by the Spanish Group of Hematopoietic Transplantation

A retrospective multicenter study was performed to assess the clinical results in patients with acquired aplastic anemia (AA) allografted over a 19 year period and to identify prognostic factors influencing survival. From April 1978 to December 1997, 176 patients were transplanted. Records from 160 receiving related matched bone marrow transplantation (BMT) were reviewed. Fifty-two percent of the patients were older than 20 years, 5% older than 40; 6.3% were untransfused at BMT and 56.2% had received prior treatments. Conditioning regimens were with chemotherapy in 43.7% of the procedures and with additional irradiation in 56.3%. Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis was based on cyclosporin A (CsA) in 58.1% of the patients while methotrexate (MTX) was administered to 41.9%. Transplantation earlier on, a longer interval from diagnosis to BMT, GVHD prophylaxis with MTX, graft failure/rejection and acute severe GVHD were adverse factors for survival. The use of CsA emerged as the main factor for the improvement, inducing a significant decrease in graft failure/rejection rate and severe acute GVHD when compared with MTX alone. Radiation-containing regimens decreased the graft failure/rejection rate without improving survival due to the increased risk of acute GVHD. Age and number of transfusions pretransplant did not influence outcome. Survival achieved since 1991 is 79.79%, and graft failure and acute severe GVHD rates are 6.0% and 11.8%, respectively. In conclusion, CsA-based post-graft immunosuppression has been crucial in achieving improved survival in patients with acquired AA up to 40 years of age. Regardless of CsA use, further improvement in survival was apparent with time, probably due to better skills in patient care.

Stage, percentage of basophils at diagnosis, hematologic response within six months, cytogenetic response in the first year: the main prognostic variables affecting outcome in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase treated with interferon-alpha. Results of the CML89 trial of the Spanish Collaborative Group on interferon-alpha2a and CML

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Interferon-a (IFN) is increasingly being used as the drug of choice in chronic myeloid leukemia patients. The main objectives of the study were to study the influence of the classic prognostic variables and response to IFN, and to assess the influence of this response on the course of the disease and survival.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Single arm, prospective, multicenter study, without a control group. Only Ph1-positive CML patients were included. The treatment scheme was biphasic: the patients first received standard chemotherapy and thereafter IFN-a2a was used as monotherapy, with a target dose of 9 MU/d/s.c.

RESULTS

Twenty-one centers in Spain enrolled 132 patients (72 men, 60 women). The median dose of IFN given was 5.8 MU/d, and the median treatment duration was 431 days (range: 18-2,597). Seventy-two percent of patients obtained a hematologic response in the first six months of IFN treatment. Genetic response was obtained in 47% of the patients, and the response was major or complete in 27% and 19%, respectively. The median time to obtain this response was 7, 9, and 18 months for minimal, partial and complete genetic response, respectively. Multivariant analysis showed that only a higher percentage of basophils at diagnosis was associated with a worse hematologic response at six months (p=0.001) (OR: 1.23) and with a worse cytogenetic response in the first year of IFN therapy (p=0.018) (OR: 1.4). Over an observation period of 8 years, 35.6% of the patients died, and 85 (64.4%) remained alive. With a median follow-up of 42 months (3.7-98), the 6-year projected probabilities of survival and transformation-free survival were 0.61+/-0.07 vs. 0.54+/-0.07, respectively. Patients with Kantarjian's stage 3 disease or in a high-risk Sokal group had lower probabilities of survival, but these systems did not adequately discriminate in our series. Obtaining a complete hematologic response in the first six months of IFN therapy was favorable in terms of overall survival (p=0.05; HR=0.33). Cox's analysis demonstrated that obtaining a cytogenetic response in the first year was independently associated with better overall survival (p=0.04; HR=0.19) and better transformation-free survival (p=0.0035; HR=0.11).

INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS

Nearly half of the patients obtained some degree of Philadelphia suppression, which was major in 27%, and complete in 19%. A higher percentage of basophils at diagnosis was the only variable associated with a lower probability of cytogenetic response. Obtaining a cytogenetic response during the first year of IFN treatment was a favorable and independent variable in terms of survival and transformation-free survival. Obtaining a major cytogenetic response during this period decreased the risk of transformation twenty times. Our results suggest that the effect of IFN on survival is independent of the classic prognostic variables.