Nomogram to predict survival of patients with advanced and metastatic pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

Nomograms are rarely employed to estimate the survival of patients with advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer (PC). Herein, we developed a comprehensive approach to using a nomogram to predict survival probability in patients with advanced and metastatic PC.

METHODS

A total of 323 patients with advanced and metastatic PC were identified from the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital. A baseline nomogram was constructed using baseline variables of 323 patients. Additionally, 233 patients, whose tumors showed initial responses to first-line chemotherapy, were enrolled in the chemotherapy response-based model. 128 patients and 108 patients with advanced and metastatic PC from January 2019 to April 2021 were selected for external validating baseline model and chemotherapy response-based model. The 1-year and 2-year survival probability was evaluated using multivariate COX regression models. The discrimination and calibration capacity of the nomograms were assessed using C-statistic and calibration plots. The predictive accuracy and net benefit of the nomograms were evaluated using ROC curve and DCA, respectively.

RESULTS

In the baseline model, six variables (gender, KPS, baseline TB, baseline N, baseline WBC and baseline CA19-9) were used in the final model. In the chemotherapy response-based model, nine variables (KPS, gender, ascites, baseline N, baseline CA 19-9, baseline CEA, change in CA 19-9 level at week, change in CEA level at week and initial response to chemotherapy) were included in the final model. The C-statistics of the baseline nomogram and the chemotherapy response-based nomogram were 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.71) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.77), respectively.

CONCLUSION

These nomograms were constructed to predict the survival probability of patients of advanced and metastatic PC. The baseline model and chemotherapy response-based model performed well in survival prediction.

Safety, efficacy and tumor mutational burden as a biomarker of overall survival benefit in chemo-refractory gastric cancer treated with toripalimab, a PD-1 antibody in phase Ib/II clinical trial NCT02915432

BACKGROUND

High tumor mutational burden (TMB-H) is correlated with enhanced objective response rate (ORR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for certain cancers receiving immunotherapy. This study aimed to investigate the safety and efficacy of toripalimab, a humanized programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibody, in advanced gastric cancer (AGC), and the predictive survival benefit of TMB and PD-L1.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reported on the AGC cohort of phase Ib/II trial evaluating the safety and activity of toripalimab in patients with AGC, oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, nasopharyngeal carcinoma and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. In cohort 1, 58 chemo-refractory AGC patients received toripalimab (3 mg/kg d1, Q2W) as a monotherapy. In cohort 2, 18 chemotherapy-naive AGC patients received toripalimab (360 mg d1, Q3W) with oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 qd, d1, capecitabine 1000 mg/m2 b.i.d., d1-d14, Q3W as first-line treatment. Primary end point was ORR. Biomarkers such as PD-L1 and TMB were evaluated for correlation with clinical efficacy.

RESULTS

In cohort 1, the ORR was 12.1% and the disease control rate (DCR) was 39.7%. Median PFS was 1.9 months and median OS was 4.8 months. The TMB-H group showed significant superior OS than the TMB-L group [14.6 versus 4.0 months, HR = 0.48 (96% CI 0.24-0.96), P = 0.038], while PD-L1 overexpression did not correlate with significant survival benefit. A 77.6% of patients experienced at least one treatment-related adverse event (TRAE), and 22.4% of patients experienced a grade 3 or higher TRAE. In cohort 2, the ORR was 66.7% and the DCR was 88.9%. A 94.4% of patients experienced at least one TRAE and 38.9% of patients experienced grade 3 or higher TRAEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Toripalimab has demonstrated a manageable safety profile and promising antitumor activity in AGC patients, especially in combination with XELOX. High TMB may be a predictive marker for OS of AGC patients receiving toripalimab as a single agent.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02915432.

CA19-9 decrease and survival according to platelet level in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer

Background

CA19–9 decrease during treatment has been associated with superior survival of pancreatic cancer in several studies. The evidence to show the correlation of high platelet level with inferior survival is insufficient in pancreatic cancer. It also remains unclear whether the association between CA19–9 decrease and survival was corresponded to different levels of platelet in metastatic pancreatic cancer.

Methods

We measured CA19–9 serum concentration and platelet level at baseline and after the second cycle of chemotherapy for 200 advanced pancreatic cancer patients. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compute mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for CA19–9 decrease, adjusting for potential confounders, including age, sex, KPS, prediagnosis body mass index, Diabetes Mellitus, tumor location, first-line chemotherapy regimen, and radiotherapy.

Results

We found that the association of CA19–9 decrease with superior overall survival was stronger in advanced pancreatic cancer with a low level of platelet (P_interaction <  0.001) compared with intermediate and high level of platelet. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios per unit decrease of CA19–9 change was 0.45 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.33 to 0.62] in cases with low platelet level, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.50 to 1.09) in cases with intermediate platelet level, and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.10) in cases with high platelet level. A similar differential association was found between CA19–9 decrease and progression-free survival in strata of platelet level (P_interaction = 0.034).

Conclusion

The association of CA19–9 decrease with superior pancreatic cancer survival appeared to be pronounced in patients with a low platelet level. This finding could provide supports for the underlying mechanisms of CA19–9 involved in platelet / tumor cell interaction.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-6078-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

[Analysis of 15 cases of avian influenza virus (H7N9) infection]

Objective: To describe the clinical, chest imaging, pathological manifestations and therapeutic experience of human infection with A/H7N9 virus. Methods: The features of 15 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with A/H7N9 virus in Taizhou, Jiangsu Province were retrospectively analyzed. Results: The 15 patients with confirmed viral pneumonia included 12 males and 3 females, with a median age of 61 years(ranging from 33 to 81 years). Twelve patients had a history of exposure to the poultry trading places, or direct contact with ill/dead avian, while 3 patients denied exposure or contact. The most common initial symptoms were fever, coughing, and respiratory distress. The illness progressed rapidly to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Lab tests showed normal (8 cases) or decreased (7 cases)white blood cell count , decreased (13 cases) lymphocyte count and proportion , increased creatine kinase (CK, 12 cases) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, 15 cases), and respiratory failure (13 cases). Chest radiographic examination showed that the most common features were inflammatory infiltration in the lung, with partial consolidation. The average time of the diagnosis with influenza viral nucleic acid and onset of an oral anti-influenza drug were 7.1 days and 6.5 days. All patients were treated by antiviral drugs (oral oseltamivir 150 mg q12 h and/or intravenous paramivir 600 mg qd), with mechanical ventilation in 9 cases, glucocorticoid therapy in 5 cases (intravenous methylprednisolone in 3 and dexamethasone in 2 patients), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy in 2 cases, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in 6 cases, and artificial liver therapy in 1 case. The pulmonary pathology was observed from post-mortem biopsy for 2 fatal cases. Patient 1 had diffuse alveolar damage with inflammatory exudation, hyaline membrane formation, and cellular infiltration. Patient 2 had widened alveolar septum, lymphocyte and monocyte cell infiltration in the alveolar septa, and interstitial fibrous proliferation. Nine patients were discharged, and 6 died. Conclusions: Patients with influenza A/H7N9 virus mostly presented with fever, cough, and were prone to progression to viral pneumonia. Once acute respiratory distress and important organ dysfunction occurred, the fatality rate was higher. Early diagnosis and rational treatment were critical for better outcomes.

Long non-coding RNA LINC00261 sensitizes human colon cancer cells to cisplatin therapy

Colon cancer is one of the most common digestive tumors. The present study aimed to explore the functional role, as well as the underlying mechanism of long non-coding RNA LINC00261 in colon cancer. Expression of LINC00261 was analyzed in colon cancer cell lines and human normal cell lines. Acquired resistance cell lines were then built and the acquired resistance efficiency was detected by evaluating cell viability. Thereafter, the effects of LINC00261 overexpression on cisplatin-resistant colon cancer cells were measured, as well as cell apoptosis, viability, migration, and invasion. Subsequently, we investigated the interaction of LINC00261 and β-catenin. The results showed that the LINC00261 gene was down-regulated in colon cancer cell lines and tissues, and in cisplatin-resistant cells. LINC00261 overexpression might relieve cisplatin resistance of colon cancer cells via promoting cell apoptosis, and inhibiting cell viability, migration, and invasion. Moreover, LINC00261 might down-regulate nuclear β-catenin through restraining β-catenin from cytoplasm into nuclei or it could also promote β-catenin degradation and inhibit activation of Wnt pathway. Finally, LINC00261 reduced cisplatin resistance of colon cancer in vivo and enhanced the anti-colon cancer effect of cisplatin through reducing tumor volume and weight.

Effect of ribonucleotide reductase M1 expression on overall survival in patients with pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine chemotherapy: A literature-based meta-analysis

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

The prognostic value of ribonucleotide reductase M1 (RRM1) in patients with pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine chemotherapy has been evaluated in several studies. However, the conclusions remain controversial.

METHODS

By searching the PubMed and Embase databases, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the prognostic significance of RRM1 expression in patients with pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine chemotherapy. Studies were pooled, and the hazard ratio (HR) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Nine relevant articles were included for this meta-analysis study. Our results revealed that the high-RRM1 expression patients had significantly poorer overall survival (HR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.33-2.16, P_{heterogeneity}  = .061, I²  = 44.8%) and disease-free survival (HR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.56-2.18, P_{heterogeneity}  = .669, I²  = 0%) than the low-RRM1 expression patients. Furthermore, a statistically significant association between RRM1 expression and OS was found among both Japanese (HR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.36-2.37, P_{heterogeneity}  = .843, I²  = 0%) and American patients (HR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.60-1.94, P_{heterogeneity}  = .439, I²  = 0%).

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the expression of RRM1 can be considered a predictor of poor survival in patients with pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine chemotherapy. RRM1 expression assessment could provide more detailed information for patients with pancreatic cancer and could be used to optimize therapeutic schemes.

[Prognostic value of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia in metastatic colon cancer patients undergoing first-line chemotherapy with FOLFOX]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (CIN) in metastatic colon cancer undergoing first-line chemotherapy with FOLFOX.

METHODS

Data were collected from a retrospective survey of 158 consecutive metastatic colon cancer patients who had undergone FOLFOX chemotherapy. The clinicopathological characteristics and chemotherapy features of the patients were analyzed as potential prognostic factors. The patients were stratified by the decreased level of CIN to three groups: large decreased level (the number of neutrophil decreased more than 1.0×10⁹ compared with that before chemotherapy), small decreased level (the number of neutrophil decreased less than 1.0×10⁹ compared with that before chemotherapy) and the absence of neutropenia.

RESULTS

According to a multivariate COX model, decreased level of CIN was a independent prognostic factor of colon cancer patients. Hazard ratios of death were 0.687 (95% CI: 0.381-0.812, P=0.016) for patients with large decreased level of CIN and 0.817 (95% CI: 0.527-0.939, P=0.027) for those with small decreased level of CIN compared with those of absent neutropenia patients. Median overall survival was 12.9 months (95% CI: 10.4-15.4) for patients without neutropenia (A) compared with 20.8 months (95% CI: 18.3-23.1) for patients with large-decreased level of CIN (L) and with 17.3 months (95% CI: 16.2-18.8) for those with small-decreased level of CIN (S vs. L, P=0.018; L vs. A, P=0.009; S vs. A, P=0.011).

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate that the decreased level of CIN is a predictor of prognosis in patients with metastatic colon cancer undergoing FOLFOX chemotherapy. Patients who have experienced large decreased level of CIN haave longer survival time than small decreased level of CIN or absent patients. To monitor CIN decreased level timely and adjust chemotherapy drug dose may help improve the prognosis.

Growth-inhibiting and apoptosis-inducing activities of Myricanol from the bark of Myrica rubra in human lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells

Myrica rubra (Lour.) Sieb. Et Zucc. is a myricaceae Myrica plant. It is a subtropical fruit tree in China and other Asian countries. The bark of M. rubra is used in Chinese folk medicine because of its antibacterial, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anticancer activities. However, the mechanisms underlying such activities remain unclear. This study investigated whether or not Myricanol extracted from M. rubra bark elicits anti-cancer effects on human lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells by inducing apoptosis in vivo. Myricanol was extracted from M. rubra bark through system solvent extraction and silica gel layer column separation. The results of tritiated thymidine assay, colony formation assay, and flow cytometry indicated that Myricanol inhibited the growth of A549 cells. The effects of Myricanol on the expression of key apoptosis-related genes in A549 cells were evaluated by quantitative PCR and Western blot analyses. Myricanol significantly inhibited the growth of A549 cells in a dose-dependent manner, with a half maximal inhibitory concentration of 4.85 μg/ml. Myricanol significantly decreased colony formation and induced A549 cell apoptosis. Myricanol upregulated the expression of Caspase-3, Caspase-9, Bax, and p21 and downregulated the expression of Bcl-2 at the mRNA and protein levels. These changes were associated with apoptosis. Based on these results, we propose that Myricanol elicits growth inhibitory and cytotoxic effects on lung cancer cells. Therefore, Myricanol may be a clinical candidate for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer.

Health risk assessment of organochlorine contaminants in fish from a major lake (Baiyangdian Lake) in North China

Organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in fish were determined to evaluate the potential risk to humans consuming fish originating in Baiyangdian Lake, North China. Relatively low levels of PCBs, HCHs and DDTs were observed, with mean concentrations ranging from 0.28 to 3.28 ng/g, wet weight. Among various fish species tested, the highest burden of OCs was recorded in northern snakehead (7.39 ng/g, wet weight) and the lowest was in grass carp (2.04 ng/g, wet weight). The hazard ratios (HRs), based on noncancer risk were all less than 1.0, while the HRs based on cancer risk exceeded 1.0 only for PCBs based on the 90th percentile concentration.

Co-inheritance of the polymorphic metabolism of encainide and debrisoquin

O-demethylation of the investigational antiarrhythmic encainide was found to be correlated with the genetically determined hydroxylation of debrisoquin in 20 randomly selected and unrelated subjects and in five members of one family. Extensive metabolizers of debrisoquin had a mean (+/- SD) encainide elimination t1/2 of 1.19 +/- 0.98 hours (range 0.25 to 3.4 hours). Poor metabolizers of debrisoquin (two normal subjects and three family members) had a mean t1/2 of 13.2 +/- 0.73 hours (range 7.8 to 22.4 hours). The elimination rate constant of encainide and the fractional excretion of O-desmethyl encainide in urine were linearly related to the fractional urinary excretion of 4-hydroxy-debrisoquin. Poor metabolizers could be identified after a 50 mg dose of encainide by the fractional excretion of O-desmethyl encainide in urine or the absence of (1) measurable ECG changes or (2) O-desmethyl encainide in plasma. The correlation between excretion of O-desmethyl encainide and 4-hydroxy-debrisoquin suggests that significant numbers of the caucasian population (7% to 9%) are likely to be poor metabolizers of encainide and to have markedly different pharmacokinetics and plasma concentration-response relationships than extensive metabolizers.