Big Data and Machine Learning to Improve European Grapevine Moth (Lobesia botrana) Predictions

Machine Learning (ML) techniques can be used to convert Big Data into valuable information for agri-environmental applications, such as predictive pest modeling. Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller) 1775 (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is one of the main pests of grapevine, causing high productivity losses in some vineyards worldwide. This work focuses on the optimization of the Touzeau model, a classical correlation model between temperature and L. botrana development using data-driven models. Data collected from field observations were combined with 30 GB of registered weather data updated every 30 min to train the ML models and make predictions on this pest's flights, as well as to assess the accuracy of both Touzeau and ML models. The results obtained highlight a much higher F1 score of the ML models in comparison with the Touzeau model. The best-performing model was an artificial neural network of four layers, which considered several variables together and not only the temperature, taking advantage of the ability of ML models to find relationships in nonlinear systems. Despite the room for improvement of artificial intelligence-based models, the process and results presented herein highlight the benefits of ML applied to agricultural pest management strategies.

Changes in severity, mortality, and virus genome among a Spanish cohort of patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2

Comparing pandemic waves could aid in understanding the evolution of COVID-19. The objective of the present study was to compare the characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in different pandemic waves in terms of severity and mortality. We performed an observational retrospective cohort study of 5,220 patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection from February to September 2020 in Aragon, Spain. We compared ICU admissions and 30-day mortality, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of the first and second waves of COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 genome was also analyzed in 236 samples. Patients in the first wave (n = 2,547) were older (median age 74 years [IQR 60–86] vs. 70 years [53–85]; p < 0.001) and had worse clinical and analytical parameters related to severe COVID-19 than patients in the second wave (n = 2,673). The probability of ICU admission at 30 days was 16% and 10% (p < 0.001) and the cumulative 30-day mortality rates 38% and 32% in the first and second wave, respectively (p = 0.007). Survival differences were observed among patients aged 60 to 80 years. We also found some variability among death risk factors and the viral genome between waves. Therefore, the two analyzed COVID-19 pandemic waves were different in terms of disease severity and mortality.

A Clinical Decision Web to Predict ICU Admission or Death for Patients Hospitalised with COVID-19 Using Machine Learning Algorithms

The purpose of the study was to build a predictive model for estimating the risk of ICU admission or mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and provide a user-friendly tool to assist clinicians in the decision-making process. The study cohort comprised 3623 patients with confirmed COVID-19 who were hospitalized in the SALUD hospital network of Aragon (Spain), which includes 23 hospitals, between February 2020 and January 2021, a period that includes several pandemic waves. Up to 165 variables were analysed, including demographics, comorbidity, chronic drugs, vital signs, and laboratory data. To build the predictive models, different techniques and machine learning (ML) algorithms were explored: multilayer perceptron, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). A reduction dimensionality procedure was used to minimize the features to 20, ensuring feasible use of the tool in practice. Our model was validated both internally and externally. We also assessed its calibration and provide an analysis of the optimal cut-off points depending on the metric to be optimized. The best performing algorithm was XGBoost. The final model achieved good discrimination for the external validation set (AUC = 0.821, 95% CI 0.787-0.854) and accurate calibration (slope = 1, intercept = -0.12). A cut-off of 0.4 provides a sensitivity and specificity of 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. In conclusion, we built a risk prediction model from a large amount of data from several pandemic waves, which had good calibration and discrimination ability. We also created a user-friendly web application that can aid rapid decision-making in clinical practice.

Deep Learning for Walking Behaviour Detection in Elderly People Using Smart Footwear

The increase in the proportion of elderly in Europe brings with it certain challenges that society needs to address, such as custodial care. We propose a scalable, easily modulated and live assistive technology system, based on a comfortable smart footwear capable of detecting walking behaviour, in order to prevent possible health problems in the elderly, facilitating their urban life as independently and safety as possible. This brings with it the challenge of handling the large amounts of data generated, transmitting and pre-processing that information and analysing it with the aim of obtaining useful information in real/near-real time. This is the basis of information theory. This work presents a complete system aiming at elderly people that can detect different user behaviours/events (sitting, standing without imbalance, standing with imbalance, walking, running, tripping) through information acquired from 20 types of sensor measurements (16 piezoelectric pressure sensors, one accelerometer returning reading for the 3 axis and one temperature sensor) and warn the relatives about possible risks in near-real time. For the detection of these events, a hierarchical structure of cascading binary models is designed and applied using artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms and deep learning techniques. The best models are achieved with convolutional layered ANN and multilayer perceptrons. The overall event detection performance achieves an average accuracy and area under the ROC curve of 0.84 and 0.96, respectively.