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Eythorsson E, Rognvaldsson S, Thorsteinsdottir S, Einarsson Long T, Reed ER, Sigurdardottir GA, Vidarsson B, Onundarson PT, Agnarsson BA, Sigurdardottir M, Olafsson I, Thorsteinsdottir I, Sveinsdottir SV, Sigurdsson F, Thordardottir AR, Palsson R, Indridason OS, Jonsson A, Gislason GK, Olafsson A, Sigurdsson J, Steingrimsdottir H, Hultcrantz M, Durie BGM, Harding S, Landgren O, Aspelund T, Love TJ, Kristinsson SY. Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial. Ann Intern Med 2024; 177:449-457. [PMID: 38560901 DOI: 10.7326/m23-2540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management. OBJECTIVE To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. DESIGN iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597). SETTING Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. PATIENTS 1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample. MEASUREMENTS Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater. RESULTS The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds. LIMITATION The prediction model will require external validation. CONCLUSION This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elias Eythorsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
| | - Saemundur Rognvaldsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
| | - Sigrun Thorsteinsdottir
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland, and Department of Hematology, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark (S.T.)
| | - Thorir Einarsson Long
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland, and Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden (T.E.L.)
| | - Elin Ruth Reed
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Gudrun Asta Sigurdardottir
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Brynjar Vidarsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Pall Torfi Onundarson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
| | - Bjarni A Agnarsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
| | - Margret Sigurdardottir
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Isleifur Olafsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Ingunn Thorsteinsdottir
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Signy Vala Sveinsdottir
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Fridbjorn Sigurdsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Asdis Rosa Thordardottir
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Runolfur Palsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
| | - Olafur Skuli Indridason
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
| | | | - Gauti Kjartan Gislason
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Andri Olafsson
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Jon Sigurdsson
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Hlif Steingrimsdottir
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (B.V., M.S., I.O., I.T., S.V.S., F.S., H.S.)
| | - Malin Hultcrantz
- Myeloma Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (M.H.)
| | - Brian G M Durie
- Cedars-Sinai Samuel Oschin Cancer Center, Los Angeles, California (B.G.M.D.)
| | - Stephen Harding
- The Binding Site, Birmingham, West Midlands, United Kingdom (S.H.)
| | - Ola Landgren
- Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of Miami, Miami, Florida (O.L.)
| | - Thor Aspelund
- Center for Public Health Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (T.A.)
| | - Thorvardur Jon Love
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.R.R., G.A.S., A.R.T., G.K.G., A.O., J.S., T.J.L.)
| | - Sigurdur Yngvi Kristinsson
- Landspítali-The National University Hospital of Iceland and Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (E.E., S.R., P.T.O., B.A.A., R.P., O.S.I., S.Y.K.)
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Love TJ, Wessman I, Gislason GK, Rognvaldsson S, Thorsteinsdottir S, Sigurdardottir GA, Thordardottir AR, Eythorsson E, Asgeirsdottir TL, Aspelund T, Bjornsson AS, Kristinsson SY. The first wave of COVID-19 and concurrent social restrictions were not associated with a negative impact on mental health and psychiatric well-being. J Intern Med 2022; 291:837-848. [PMID: 35112416 DOI: 10.1111/joim.13461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it have substantially affected the daily lives of most of the world's population. OBJECTIVE We describe the impact of the first COVID-19 wave and associated social restrictions on the mental health of a large adult population. METHODS We performed a cohort study nested in a prospective randomized clinical trial, comparing responses during the first COVID-19 wave to previous responses. We calculated the odds ratio (OR) of the population moving up one severity category on validated instruments used to measure stress (PSS-10), anxiety (GAD-7), depression (PHQ-9), and Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Responses were linked to inpatient and outpatient ICD-10 codes from registries. Models were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and pre-existing diagnoses of mental illness. RESULTS Of 63,848 invited participants, 42,253 (66%) responded. The median age was 60 (inter-quartile range 53-68) and 19,032 (45%) were male. Responses during the first wave of COVID-19 did not suggest increased stress (OR 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-1.01; p = 0.28) or anxiety (OR 1.01; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.05; p = 0.61), but were associated with decreased depression (OR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93, p < 0.0001) and increased satisfaction with life (OR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16, p < 0.0001). A secondary analysis of repeated measures data showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS Social restrictions were sufficient to contain the pandemic but did not negatively impact validated measures of mental illness or psychiatric well-being. However, responses to individual questions showed signs of fear and stress. This may represent a normal, rather than pathological, population response to a stressful situation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thorvardur Jon Love
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.,Department of Medicine, Landspitali University Hospital, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - Inga Wessman
- Faculty of Psychology, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | | | - Saemundur Rognvaldsson
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.,Department of Medicine, Landspitali University Hospital, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | | | | | | | - Elias Eythorsson
- Department of Medicine, Landspitali University Hospital, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | | | - Thor Aspelund
- Centre for Public Health Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | | | - Sigurdur Yngvi Kristinsson
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.,Department of Medicine, Landspitali University Hospital, Reykjavik, Iceland
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